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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🌧️ Weather Update. Wednesday, October 14th
Here is what you need to know about the weather over the next several days.
⛈️ Wednesday — Showers and thunderstorms
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region today. The highest rain chances will be in the morning and midday.
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Rain chances: 70% to 90% by midday.
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Rain chances will gradually decrease from west to east this afternoon.
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A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe, especially this afternoon.
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Damaging wind gusts are the main severe weather concern.
Temperatures will remain well above average, with highs in the 80s.
Most locations can expect around ¼ to 1 inch of rain through Thursday night. A few spots could receive more.
🌧️ Wednesday night and Thursday — More storms possible
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight and Thursday.
Tonight, rain chances will range from 10% to 30% across southern portions of the region to 40% to 50% farther north. See the rain probability graphics farther down in this blog update.
Thursday will remain quite warm, with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
Rain chances Thursday will be highest across the northern half of our region, generally 30% to 60%.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, along and north of a line from Du Quoin to Carmi, Illinois, and Winslow, Indiana.
Damaging wind gusts will again be the primary concern.
💨 Friday — Turning windy and much cooler
A cold front will move through the region Thursday night, bringing a big change in temperatures.
Friday will be noticeably cooler and windy.
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High temperatures will only reach the 60s.
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North to northwest winds will blow at 15 to 25 mph.
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Wind gusts could approach 30 mph.
You will definitely notice the difference compared to the warm weather earlier in the week!
🥶 Saturday and Sunday morning — Monitoring temperatures. I can’t rule out patchy frost.
Saturday will be another chilly autumn day, with highs around 60 to 65 degrees.
Saturday night into Sunday morning could bring our coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far.
Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the 38 to 44 degree range. Then, some areas could dip below 38 degrees. Especially rural areas. Cold-favored spots.
Winds will calm Saturday night, which could let temperatures drop even further in some locations.
Patchy frost is possible Sunday morning, especially in rural areas and locations that typically get colder.
If you still have sensitive plants outdoors, keep an eye on the forecast.
☀️ Sunday through Tuesday — Warming back up
The chilly weather won’t last long.
Temperatures will start warming Sunday as winds shift back from the south.
By Monday, temperatures should return to around average for this time of year.
By Tuesday, we could be running a little above average again.
Bottom line: I will be keeping an eye on the thunderstorms today and Thursday, especially the potential for damaging wind gusts. Then get ready for a windy Friday, a chilly weekend, and possible patchy frost Sunday morning. Warmer weather returns early next week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 14th through October 21st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: POSSIBLE. A few of the thunderstorms today could produce high winds. A few of the thunderstorms tomorrow could be intense as well. Mainly over northern southeast Missouri and northern southern Illinois.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: UNLIKELY. The primary concern today will be high winds with the most intense storms. The tornado risk is low. There is some turning in the atmosphere, but the tornado risk appears limited.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is likely today, tonight, and tomorrow.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Isolated risk on Thursday of a few reporting stations hitting 90 degrees. This will partially depend on cloud cover.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
7. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill forecast fall below 10 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
⚠️ Totals for the tropical depression will vary. Some higher totals are likely. ⚠️
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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NAM 3K Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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