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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
Key Messages
Happy October, everyone!
A fairly straight forward weather forecast. Peak rain chances arrive tonight into tomorrow night. No severe thunderstorms No flooding concerns.
A few showers may return to the area Saturday night and on Sunday.
Temperatures today will be well above average and then drop below average tomorrow! A bit of a roller coaster ride in the temperature department. Typical for October!
Next week looks nice in the temperature department. Highs in the 70s. Lows in the 40s and 50s. No frost concerns yet.
Here is a summary.
- One more very warm day today. Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Winds will also pick up, with some gusts of 15 to 25 mph.
- Big temperature change Friday. A cold front will move through, dropping highs into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Cooler weather will stick around through the weekend and into early next week.
- Rain arrives late tonight into Friday. The best chance of rain will be Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. A few scattered showers are possible on Saturday and Sunday, as well.
- No severe weather is expected. A few thunderstorms are possible, but widespread strong or severe storms are not anticipated.
- Rainfall totals of ½ to 1 inch are expected for many locations. The flooding risk is very low.
- If you have outdoor activities tomorrow into the weekend, then throw an umbrella and towel in the car.
Bottom line: Enjoy the warmth today because a noticeable taste of autumn arrives Friday. Expect periods of rain Friday, followed by much cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 1st through October 7th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible/Isolated. Thursday night into Friday night. A small chance on Saturday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? SCATTERED. A chance today.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
See the graphic I posted at the top of the page.
The NOAA maps are too high. I won’t post them. Rain totals from Thursday night through Sunday will range from 0.40″ to 0.80″, with local totals up to 1 inch.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
See the graphic I posted at the top of the page.
The NOAA maps are too high. I won’t post them. Rain totals from Thursday night through Sunday will range from 0.40″ to 0.80″, with local totals up to 1 inch.
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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GFS
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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