Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 1, 2017: Welcome to October. Mild weather ahead.

October 2, 2017

** Notice: October is a transition month. Model guidance is less reliable. That means changeable forecasts **

Highlights

1. A warm week ahead of us. I doubt we see “true” heat. Lower 80’s will be the general rule. Remember, at one time the models showed 90 degrees for this week.

2. Weak disturbances will approach our region tonight and again late in the week. These could trigger a few showers/storms.

3. One disturbance moves through tonight. Expect a few showers and thunderstorms in the region tonight into Tuesday morning. Many areas will remain dry.

4. A cold front approaches the region on Thursday/Friday, but may not make it through the whole area. Small rain chances.

5. A stronger cold front approaches Saturday night/Sunday. Too early to say how much rain will fall, but at least a chance.

Severe weather is not anticipated through Friday. Lightning is possible tonight and Tuesday.  I will keep an eye on rain chances Friday through Sunday.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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October 1, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Intervals of clouds.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 2, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Intervals of clouds.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82      IL ~76 to 82      KY ~ 76 to 82       TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts  to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Many areas will remain dry.  The best chances for precipitation may end up over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures   MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 3, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the morning hours.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 84     IL ~80 to 84     KY ~ 80 to 84      TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few areas may have wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds, otherwise clear.  Not as cool.
Temperatures   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65     KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~60 to 65
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 4, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds.  warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~82 to 86      KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures   MO ~58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 62     TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 5, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds.  warm.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm over our western and northern counties.  That would be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 84     IL ~82 to 84      KY ~ 82 to 84      TN ~ 82 to 84
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  This will mainly be from Poplar Bluff towards Mt Vernon, IL
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Best chances will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 62     TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered to scattered (esp MO/IL).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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October 6, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~78 to 84     KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  A shower or thunderstorm possible.  Low confidence.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 62     TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning possible.  Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.  The best chance may be over our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars

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October 7, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Low confidence.  the forecast hinges on the cold front.  Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Low confidence.  the forecast hinges on the cold front.  Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 62     TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.  Check updates.

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October 8, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Low confidence.  the forecast hinges on the cold front.  Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~76 to 82      KY ~ 76 to 82       TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and updates.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  An evening shower possible.  Low confidence.  the forecast hinges on the cold front.  Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Ending from west to east (low confidence).  Timing of the front is key.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

 

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night through next Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

beausanalysis

Overview

Highlights of the forecast.

  1. A mild and mostly dry week
  2. Drought conditions will worsen
  3. Use care with burning brush and fields

Short range comments

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(See the long range discussion further down in this post)

More of the same.  That is the weather theme.  You can expect partly to mostly sun sky conditions through Thursday.  Daily highs in the 80’s.  A small increase in dew points are possible, as well.

Overall, the coming days look nice.  A bit warmer.  I did introduce shower chances (for a few).  See details above.

I suppose nice is subjective.  We need rain.  There have been some field fires over the last few days.  Use care if you have to burn brush or fields.

I am monitoring a cold front for later in the week.  The timing of the front is still in question.  Model guidance packages have been all over the place with the timing.

At this time, widespread significant rain appears unlikely, but let’s keep an eye on it.

A few showers may need to be introduced to the forecast as we move past Thursday or Friday.  Again, the totals don’t appear to be anything to write home about.

I will monitor the trends.

Temperature Forecast

Sunday night low temperature

Monday high temperatures

Monday night low temperatures

Tuesday high temperatures

Tuesday night low temperatures

Wednesday high temperatures

 

Dew point scale

Dew points are what control how you feel outside.

 

Monday dew points

Tuesday dew points

Wednesday dew points

 

Long range forecast discussion

This discussion covers next week.

Dry weather will continue until late week.  At that time, a cold front may bring a few showers to the region.

Drought conditions will likely worsen.  Much of the region is now experiencing drier than normal conditions.  Drought is forming over portions of Missouri and Illinois.

Kentucky did receive some rain over the past month.  This was mostly from the hurricanes.

I am monitoring Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for hotter temperatures.  The problem, again, is the questionable timing of the cold front.

If the front holds off, then temperatures may climb into the upper 80’s.  This would be ahead of the front.

For now, enjoy the nice fall weather.  We will just have to monitor trends for rainfall.  October is typically not our wet month.

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

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