November 8, 2014: This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 50’s. Southwest winds during the morning hours at 5-10 mph. Winds turning out of the northwest by late morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph during the afternoon.
Saturday night – Mostly cloudy early then some clearing late. Cooler. Low temperatures in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Sunday – A few clouds from time to time. Cooler than normal temperatures. High temperatures around 55 degrees. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Sunday night – Mostly clear sky conditions. Low temperatures around 38 degrees. A few spots cooler. South winds at 5-10 mph.
Monday – Partly sunny – occasional periods of clouds. Windy at times. Milder. High temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Gusty south winds at 10-20 mph.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days.
A weak cold front will push through the area today. This front will mainly be associated with some clouds and a wind shift. Winds will start out today from the southwest and will turn out of the west/northwest as the front passes your location.
Here is the wind forecast map from the NAM model (stormvista.com) You can see some 10-15 mph wind gusts.
The wind scale is on the right side of the page. The blue and dark blue colors represent 10-15 mph winds. The wind barbs point towards the direction the wind is coming FROM.
A strong cold front arrives on Monday/Tuesday. Along the front will be a few showers. Most likely this would be on Tuesday. Once the front pushes through the area we will experience falling temperatures and gusty winds.
Here is the location of the cold front early Tuesday morning (around 7 am). Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure diving down through the Northern Plains. Cold front slicing through Illinois and Missouri. Temperatures ahead of the front should be in the 50’s. Temperatures immediately behind the front will fall into the 30’s and 40’s. The thin red line through Missouri is the freezing line.
Note the heavy snow over portions of Wisconsin.
Gee, I wonder if you can find the cold front on Tuesday? Warm air ahead of the front and cold air behind the front.
Current wind speeds over the region.
Current infrared satellite view. The gray/white areas represent clouds.
No major changes in the ongoing forecast. Enjoy your weekend.
No major concerns this weekend! Enjoy the calm.
The Wild Card gives you an idea of what might change that would cause the forecast to bust. A busted forecast means a forecast that does not verify. For example, if a winter storm (the area of low pressure) shifts its track 50 miles further south than expected, then that could cause a dramatic change in how much snow might or might not accumulate.
Wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a few sprinkles develop today over parts of southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. Nothing major and very small chances
No winter weather concerns!
Okay, so I have been telling you about next weeks cold shot for quite awhile now. Everything appears to be coming together for an early season cold blast. This is a bit unusual for a few reasons
1. The longevity of the cold snap – it may stick around from next Tuesday night through the following Monday. Whether it sticks around beyond that is still in question.
2. The cold snap will encompass a very large chunk of the United States. More than half the country will see below normal temperatures!
3. The anomalies will be impressive. Some places will be 20 degrees below normal in the temperature department!
4. How far south the cold will penetrate. The cold air will sink all the way to the Gulf Coast and perhaps even Florida. Cold air will also filter into parts of Mexico.
Here is the temperature map for next Friday – note the cold air into Florida and Mexico.
All of this in the middle of November? Impressive
Let’s take a look at the actual temperature forecasts for next Monday afternoon and then every morning at 7 am (Tuesday through next Saturday).
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ~ 7 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ~ 7 AM
THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ~ 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ~ 7 AM
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ~ 7 AM
The potential exists for a rather large storm system to shape late next weekend. This system will need to be monitored.
Here is the GFS models interpretation of the weather map for next Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow is blossoming over portions of Colorado and Nebraska (the blue and purple colors). A cold front is developing across portions of Texas. An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle.
Stay tuned as we monitor this system.
Portions of our region need rain. I guess we will take what nature sends our way!
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Severe weather is not going to be a concern through Monday.
Thunderstorm threat level is zero.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Will I need to take action?
No. I few sprinkles, at most, are possible today along the Illinois/Indiana border. Nothing of significance.
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
I have added a lot of new maps to the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site. Check them out by clicking here.
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page
& Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page
& Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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