Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Tuesday night –  Some clouds.  Patchy fog possible.  Drizzle possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 52 to 56 degrees
Winds: South/southeast at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Some fog could lower visibility.

Wednesday –  Mostly cloudy, especially the first half of the day.  Drizzle possible.  Some fog possible in the morning.  We could see some sun in the afternoon, but lower than normal confidence on this subject.  Eastern counties will have sun in the morning.  That includes parts of western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 60s.  If the sun does come out then 70s will occur.
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered patchy drizzle or light rain possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but there could be some drizzle
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Fog and drizzle.  Wet roadways.  Lower visibility where fog occurs.

Wednesday night –   Cloudy with patchy drizzle and fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered patchy drizzle
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but there could be some patchy drizzle
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Fog could lower visibility.  Some wet roadways possible.

Thursday –  Quite a few clouds.  A chance for some light rain showers.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower to middle 70’s
Winds:  South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but there could be some patchy light showers
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Some wet roadways possible

Thursday night –  Cloudy.  An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be strong.  Gusty winds.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90% as the night wears on
Coverage of precipitation?  Widespread precipitation as the night wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some rain will be possible.  Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected?  There is a chance for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and an isolated short lived tornado risk.  The risk is small at any given location, but not zero.  Let’s keep monitoring.
What impact is expected?  Some wet roads and perhaps lightning.  Gusty winds.  I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorms.  Mainly after midnight.

Friday –  Showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be on the heavy side.  Monitor for updates
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming northwest after frontal passage.  Gusty winds at 10-25 mph early in the day.  Diminishing winds in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation?  90% early.  Then tapering to 20% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation?  Widespread early in the day.  Then isolated perhaps in the afternoon (if any at all).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  There could be some morning thunderstorms giving way to dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected?  There is a chance for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and an isolated short lived tornado risk.  Mainly before 9 am.  The risk is small at any given location, but not zero.  Let’s keep monitoring.
What impact is expected?  Maybe wet roadways and lightning.  I can’t rule out severe weather.

Friday night –  Clearing and cooler.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 40s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?  None

Saturday –  Partly sunny and cooler.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 50s
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Saturday night –  Clearing and colder.  Frost possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some debate on how cold Saturday night will or will not be.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?  Frost possible

Sunday –  Partly sunny and cool.   Fall.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 50s
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.   Some fog again possible Tuesday night and Wednesday
2.  I had to add drizzle or light rain into the Wednesday forecast.
3.  Big weather story will be a strong cold front on Thursday night and Friday.
4.  Rain likely by Thursday night into Friday morning.
5.  Thunderstorms possible.  I can’t rule out severe weather.
6.  Active weather the next few weeks?  Possibly.

Fog and clouds continue to be an issue in our region.  We had dense fog on Tuesday morning.  Some locations had visibility of 1/4 mile.   We will have some more fog tonight, Tuesday night.  The fog will linger into Wednesday morning.

Check out this 2 pm satellite and temperature image.  Tale of two areas.  Clouds and no clouds!

The real question, the last few days, has been cloud cover and afternoon high temperatures.  Where clouds have lingered the longest the temperatures have remained the coolest.  Where the sun has broke through we have experienced temperatures in the 70s.  Very nice for fall.

Clouds will likely be an issue on Wednesday, as well.  Low level moisture can be difficult to mix out during the fall and winter months.  Often a bit of a forecast headache.

Low level moisture will also pick up a bit on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thus, clouds and some light rain/drizzle have been added to the forecast.  Was hoping that would not be the case.  But, appears that is the forecast.  We will see how it goes.  A bit lower than normal confidence in the short range forecast.

Some of the data shows the sun coming out on Wednesday afternoon, but not all.  Keep that in mind.  Hopefully we can pull the sun out and pop those temperatures back into the 70s.

The next weather story will be a cold front on Thursday night and Friday.

We could see a few showers form as early as Thursday afternoon and evening.  This, as warm southerly winds push moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

But, more likely will be showers and locally heavy thunderstorms on Thursday night and Friday.  Rainfall totals in some areas could exceed 0.50″.  Some of the data indicates over 1″ possible.  Still a bit early to make a solid call o n the bigger numbers.  And, thunderstorms can skew totals.

Of some concern will be the setup for a few severe thunderstorms.  We will have low CAPE values, but it does not take much CAPE during the fall and winter months.  CAPE is basically energy available for thunderstorms.  We will have quite a bit of wind shear.  Wind shear is one necessary ingredient for severe thunderstorms.  The greater the wind shear the more likely you will experience some heavy weather.

This is not an ideal setup for severe thunderstorms.  However, it could be just sufficient enough for a few severe storms.

The timing of this system will be late at night into the early morning hours.  That would be late Thursday night and Friday morning.  Storms will be moving from west to east and southwest to northeast at speeds of 35 to 50 mph.

There could be a small risk for isolated tornadoes.  This would most likely occur with any line segments or bowing lines of storms.  Still some time to monitor this situation.

GFS dew points rise into the 60s on Thursday night.  That is high for November.  This weatherbell.com map shows those dew points.

Dew points are a measure of moisture in the air.  If you see 60s in the fall and winter then it is a red flag.

CAPE is low, but shear is high.  Low CAPE and high shear in the fall and winter is also a red flag.  That means to monitor updates.

Then the 850 mb wind fields.  They increase quite a bit on Thursday night.  The first image is early in the evening and the second image is late in the evening.  Those dark red colors are some very strong winds at the 5000′ level.  The jet stream and low level jet will increase overhead.

Then early early Friday morning.

The long range pattern is taking on an active look.  We may not be finished with severe weather concerns.  Remember, fall can produce severe weather.

Checking the NWS out of Paducah, Kentucky.  These are the tornadoes by the month.  Notice the uptick in the fall?

Don’t forget we have interactive city view radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Major changes in the short term forecast.  Some clouds and light rain or drizzle possible on Wednesday.  Low level southerly flow will mean more moisture moving into the region.  This should equal some clouds and some light rain or drizzle.  Fog possible, as well.

Fog is the only concern.  But, monitoring Thursday night and Friday morning for the potential of a few heavy thunderstorms.

Morning fog could be an issue for some commuters.  Otherwise, some patchy rain or drizzle possible on Wednesday.

The wild card for the coming days will be the risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday night and Friday morning.  A cold front will bump into warm/moist air over the region.  Wind fields will strengthen over the area on Thursday night.  Wind shear will increase.  Some of the storms could produce high winds and there is even a short lived tornado threat.  Often times these fall and winter setups don’t take much in the way of instability.  The overall risk is low at any given spot, but not zero.

Let’s monitor all of this as we move forward.

Small chance on  Sunday, November 8th or Monday the 9th.  Otherwise, not tracking any frost potential.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday night and Friday.  Perhaps some downpours with thunderstorms included.

Current rainfall outlook (subject to changes as we move forward).  This would be for Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Image is from weatherbell.com

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon.    Thursday night into early Friday morning (11 pm Thursday night through 9 am on Friday morning) will deliver an upper level 2 or lower end 3.  That means some storms could be severe.  Let’s monitor it.

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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Monitor updates.  Cold front arrives on Thursday evening and Thursday night.  Perhaps some storms.
Thursday night/Friday morning:  Can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm.  Low risk at any given location.  Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and short lived tornadoes.
Friday:  Monitor updates for early wee hours of Friday morning.  Perhaps some thunderstorms.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.

Then for Thursday night and Friday morning (before 9 am on Friday)  An upper end 2 or lower end 3.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Let’s take a look at some winter data.  I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.  

UPDATE:  October 20, 2015:  Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November.  A couple of storm systems to monitor.  I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States.  The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter.  Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast.  If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast.  Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.

The question will be how far south do these systems track.  Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama.  That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.

I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter.  The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event.  Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic.  I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures.  Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast.  It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.

Drought continues to be the lead story.  Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region).  The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November.  The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.

Precious discussions below.

One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties.  This is a concern.  I do believe in repeating patterns.  Typically October and November set the stage for the winter.  Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST

NOAA has released their winter forecast.  I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region.  But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet.  The long range cycle is still in the developing stages.  The long range cycle typically develops during October and November.  It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter.  Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.

I am concerned about our dry weather.  October has been dry, thus far.  Not the best way to start out the next cycle.  However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go.  Will the weather become more active during that time period?  Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.

Here is what NOAA said today.

This first map is their temperature outlook.  They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States.  In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures.  The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.

I would have brought the blue further north into our region.  It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter.  That is when December into early March is averaged out.  That does not mean every month will be colder than normal.  It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal.  We will see how it goes.

I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States.  The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air.  If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA saying about our region?  They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.

Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast.  They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter.  Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes.  As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA forecasting for our region?  They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.

Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region.  If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt.  Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance.  Key word being specific.

We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.