Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 28 and 29, 2017: Warm weather will continue!

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 28, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming partly cloudy.  Cool.  More clouds over the northern half of the region compared to southern half.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds north of the front will become N/NW and eventually N/NE.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 29, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Wide temperature range north of the cold front compared to south.  Cloudy northern half of the area.  Cooler behind a cold front sinking southward.  Partly sunny elsewhere.  Temperatures may fall behind a cold front slowly sinking southward through the area.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 66     IL ~ 55 to 65      KY ~ 63 to 66
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South of the cold front winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.  Winds north of the front will become north/northeast and perhaps east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if any at all)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  Cool.  Widely scattered late night showers.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways are possible late
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered (mostly late)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  No

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November 30, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 60      KY ~ 56 to 62
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered.  A band of light rain possible in the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clouds clearing.  Colder.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 1, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and chilly.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 2, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 34 to 38     IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 38
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 3, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 62      KY ~ 58 to 62
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East winds becoming more southerly at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 4, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 62      KY ~ 58 to 62
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southerly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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December 54, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy. A  chance of showers.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds

What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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Wednesday through next Wednesday:  Accumulating snow or ice is not anticipated.

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Wednesday through Monday:  No severe weather.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week:  I am monitoring thunderstorm chances.  Low confidence this far out.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

November 28, 2017

Are you open to the idea of more warm weather?  I hope so!  That is what we have in the forecast.  At least south of the cold front sinking into the region later tonight and on Wednesday.

You might be surprised to see the month to date temperature anomaly map.

We are riding the below normal and above normal readings.  We have experienced several cold periods.  The warm tends to get the headlines.

Here is the month to date anomaly map.  Red is above and blue is below normal.
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The sixties will continue into Wednesday.

Here is the GFS high temp map for Wednesday.  The GFS has been several degrees off over the last few days.  If we can avoid clouds then temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than shown here.

Temperatures north of the cold front will be quite a bit cooler.  Temperatures may fall on Wednesday as the front sinks southward and winds becoming northerly.

Either way, above normal will rule.
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We will have a frontal boundary in the area on Wednesday night and Thursday.  This front will bring a few light showers.  Nothing to write home about.  Some areas may not receive any measurable rainfall.  Keep that in mind.

Here is the future-cast radar from the high res NAM model.

6 AM Thursday

9 AM Thursday

12 PM Thursday

 

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This is not going to be a big rain event.  Some areas may receive no precipitation.  Keep that in mind.

Missouri is in drought and they need rain.  The new drought numbers will be available on Thursday afternoon.

Here is my rainfall forecast.  This is the % chance of X amount of rain falling Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.
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Here is the GFS rainfall forecast
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Here is the NAM model rainfall forecast
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Here is the Canadian model rainfall forecast
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Highs on Thursday will top out in the upper 50’s and lower to middle 50’s on Friday.  This is still above normal for high temperatures.  Normal high temperatures range from 48 to 52 degrees.

No extreme weather through Monday night.  That is the good news.

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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

I am monitoring the potential for colder air after December 6th.  There is at least some chance of precipitation to be associated with the colder air.

A bit too early for snow fans to become excited.  It is just something I am monitoring.

Below normal temperatures are possible after December 6th and those temperatures may last several days.

Confidence on the cold shot is medium.  Not a slam dunk forecast, yet.

Model guidance is struggling with how to handle the set-up for the second and third week of December.

We may have a rain event around December 5th/6th.
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Long Range Outlook 

I am closely watching December 5th/6th.  For over three weeks now the long range guidance has hinted at a stronger storm system.  Over the last few days, the models show the storm and then don’t show the storm.  This is typical for model guidance.

It is still a bit early to know for sure how this system will transpire.  Some of the guidance does show a chance for thunderstorms on those dates.

The GFS and EC models have been battling it out with different ideas.

Over the last 24 hours the GFS has backed off the bigger system idea.  The EC model guidance, however, is showing a strong system.

Still a lot of time to monitor this event.

This is what the EC guidance shows for 12 a.m., Tuesday, December 5th.  A line of thunderstorms moving through our region (some intense).

Those black lines are isobars (equal lines of pressure).  Tightly packed isobars would mean strong winds.  The 988 mb low can be seen entering Michigan.  I know the map is a little hard to read.

The green and blue/yellow/red colors represent a line of showers and thunderstorms cutting through our region.  There would also be heavy snow over portions of Wisconsin.
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Meanwhile, here is what the GFS model shows for the same time frame.

Miles apart in their ideas.

This one receives a sticky note to keep an eye on.
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Analogs look back at previous weather events and try to compare them to the current or forecasted pattern.

CIPS analogs are showing a strong signal for colder than normal weather for the second and third week of December.

December 7th through the 9th.  Blue is below normal temperatures.  Strong signal for colder weather.

December 10th through the 12th

The CIPS analogs also point towards above normal precipitation around December 5th and 6th.

 

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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