This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Saturday – Partly sunny and milder. A chance for a passing shower. High temperatures will range from 58-60 degrees. That means we will be near normal in the temperature department. South winds at 10-20 mph.
Saturday night – Cloudy. A chance for a few showers early and then a chance for showers after midnight. Temperatures holding steady. Low temperatures in the 50’s. South winds at 10-20 mph.
Sunday – Cloudy. Windy, at times. Occasional showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. High temperatures around 60 degrees. Southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Winds will gust up to 35 mph possible at times.
Sunday night – Cloudy. A bit cooler. Windy at times. A chance for showers. Low temperatures in the middle 40’s. Southwest winds at 10-25 mph.
Monday – Cloudy and cool. Windy at times. A chance for a shower. High temperatures around 45-50 degrees. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Confidence in the above forecast:
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days.
Welcome to the weekend! A storm system is approaching our region from the southwest. This storm system will intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours. An area of low pressure will pull out of Arkansas and enter Missouri and Illinois. The deepening low will pull a lot of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop later tonight and into Sunday morning. The precipitation will move up from Arkansas and Tennessee. The best chance of precipitation will arrive after midnight tonight and continue on/off into part of Sunday afternoon.
Right now it appears that the threat for severe weather is minimal. Monitor updates. The lacking ingredient for severe weather is instability. If we had more sunshine on Sunday then I would be more concerned (sunshine would help build instability).
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50″-1.00″ range through Monday morning. I can’t out locally heavier precipitation totals.
Cooler air arrives on Monday and will linger into next week.
Check out the high temperature maps for today into Sunday – you can definitely see the warming trend.
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
Let’s take a look at the current temperature map across the region.
Current National Temperature Map
No major chances in the ongoing forecast.
Thunderstorms on Sunday could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.
A few showers today. Perhaps throw the umbrella in the car. Widespread showers and thunderstorms enter the picture on Saturday night into the day on Sunday.
The Wild Card gives you an idea of what might change that would cause the forecast to bust. A busted forecast means a forecast that does not verify.
Wild card in this forecast – whether or not a few storms will approach or reach severe levels on Sunday. This will be dependent on the atmosphere becoming more unstable that expected. If the sun comes out on Sunday then that would increase the risk for heavier storms. Monitor updates.
Precipitation forecast…
Rainfall totals from now until Monday will be in the 0.50″-1.00″ range. Locally heavier amounts likely. Some places may pick up more than 1″ of rain. The bulk of the rain will fall late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation today through Saturday afternoon should be less than 0.20″. Some spots will remain dry.
Scale for this graphic is on the right. This is a broad-brushed graphic – not everyone will pick up the totals shown. This will, however, give you a better idea of what might fall. Again, most of this is Saturday night into Sunday evening.
No winter weather concerns through Sunday afternoon.
First off, I wanted to show you some of the new data for December. Are we going to have a cold December? Some of the data indicates temperatures will be below normal. Here is one of those data sets. Lot of blue on this map (below normal temperatures). This map shows you how many degrees or below normal the mean temperature will be in December (again, it is a forecast)
1. Colder air arrives by Monday
Well, you knew it was too good to last. Right? Our brief warmup this weekend will be followed by a prolonged period of colder than normal temperatures. Whether or not that means additional snow chances will need to be monitored. November is going to go down as one of the colder November’s in the nations history. Quite amazing spell of cold weather for so early in the season.
Several week impulses will approach the region next week. Depending on the track of each system, we may have some additional light precipitation chances from time to time.
Some extended temperature and precipitation outlooks…
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Severe weather is not going to be a concern through Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday. There may be a marginal risk that a few storms become severe on Sunday. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
I have added a lot of new maps to the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site. Check them out by clicking here.
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page
& Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page
& Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
