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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
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November 16, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly sunny. Not quite as cold. Temperatures will be cooler over the snowpack area. Temperatures will be milder over the area without snow. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 52 IL ~ 40 to 48 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Southwest and west at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 25 to 30 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 28 to 32 TN ~ 28 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:44 PM
Moonrise: 12:57 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 11:43 PM
November 17, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. Somewhat milder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 60 IL ~ 48 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 56 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clouds. Breezy and colder. Isolated light rain showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 36 IL ~ 34 to 36 KY ~ 36 to 38 TN ~ 36 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:44 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 12:01 AM
November 18, 2018
Sunday forecast: Cloudy. A light shower possible. Below normal temperatures. Shower chances increasing PM hours vs AM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 48 KY ~46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Cold. Rain showers likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Wind: North wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 2:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:39 AM
November 19, 2018
Monday forecast: Decreasing clouds. An early morning shower possible over our eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky). Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty early in the day.
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: North 5 to 10 mph becoming west at 5 to 10
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few morning wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 28 IL ~ 26 to 30 KY ~ 30 to 34 TN ~ 32 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 3:00 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:39 AM
November 20, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 46 to 48 TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 28 IL ~ 26 to 28 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 3:31 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:39 AM
November 21, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 4:04 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:42 AM
November 22, 2018
Thanksgiving
Thursday forecast: Mostly sunny. A bit milder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 40 IL ~ 36 to 40 KY ~ 36 to 40 TN ~ 36 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 4:43 PM Full
Moonset: 5:48 AM
November 23, 2018
Friday forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some rain will be possible.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some rain will be possible.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 5:27 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:55 AM
November 24, 2018
Saturday forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some rain will be possible.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some rain will be possible.
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 6:17 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:02 AM
November 25, 2018
Sunday forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some rain will be possible.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated? No
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 7:14 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:08 AM
Today through Monday: No significant winter weather anticipated. A small chance of light snow Saturday night over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northwest counties of southern Illinois. No impact anticipated.
The Weather Observatory will be holding two open houses for adults and children. Weather permitting, the open house will be Saturday, December 1st.
Class of 1988 (Massac County High School). I will be having a special open house for you on Friday, November 30th (the night before the other open house)
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
No significant precipitation over the next seven days.
Light showers Saturday night/Sunday could produce trace to 0.05″ amounts.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Sunday: No severe storms.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Calm after the storm
- Below normal temperatures to continue
- Small light rain chances
- Calm Thanksgiving
Check out this mornings satellite view. You can see the snowpack over the region. You can also see the lakes and rivers.
Click to enlarge
Calm weather will prevail today through Thanksgiving. That is the good news!
I don’t have any bad news.
Small light rain chances Saturday night and Sunday as a cold front pushes through the region. It does not have much moisture to work with.
It appears this would mostly be a rain event. Small chance of a few snowflakes over our northern counties. No travel impacts. No accumulation.
Temperatures will remain below normal today through at least next Wednesday. With that said, they won’t be as cold as recent weeks.
I am forecasting an active storm track after next week into December. It still appears as if December could be colder and stormier than normal.
November temperature anomalies have been impressive. Understatement.
Let me show you some maps
This first map shows you the average temperature ranking. This goes back 126 years.
The darkest colors that are numbered 126 indicate the coldest start to November on record. Amazing.
Our region ranks high up there, as well.
The 99 over Kentucky represents 99 out of 126 years. The higher the number the colder the ranking.
Needless to say, it has been cold. We will have to see how the coming weeks shake out. Could this be a top ten coldest November? Possible.
Here is the national map. These are month to date temperature anomalies. The second map shows you the entire world.
Obviously, the United States stands out like a sore thumb.
Blue and green represent below normal temperatures. Those bright green colors are well below normal temperatures.
World view
Thanksgiving
At this time, no significant weather is anticipated Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
I am keeping an eye on a possible system next Saturday/Sunday. Another one around November 28th through December 1st.
Updated November outlook for subscribers!
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
.
Fall Outlook!
These products are for subscribers.
November temperature and precipitation outlook
November temperature outlook
November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 669
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a CFM who started working for the City of Austin, TX’s Watershed Protection Department as an intern in 1998, and joined the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) team in 2006. He serves as the Senior Systems Administrator, which is responsible for maintaining all IT hardware and software associated with FEWS. He is also an on-call responder for flood events in Austin. Working with Code for America, Matthew created AtxFloods.com in 2012. Matthew Porcher, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Trace of snowfall at Wichita Falls, Texas
- 9.5 inches of snow in parts of Texas Panhandle
- Continued discussion on social media
- Over 5 inches of rainfall in parts of East Alabama
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
