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- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
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- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
May 9, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Breezy. A mix of sun and clouds. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will likely remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 85 KY ~ 82 to 85 TN ~ 80 t2 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds: South 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Monitor the hail and strong wind threat over our northern counties. Less risk elsewhere.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense with hail and strong winds. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Breezy. Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms (mainly over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered over northern parts of SE MO and southern IL
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. A couple of storms could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk of severe weather
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:51 PM
May 10, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Breezy. Partly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated if anything.
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy and mild. An isolated thunderstorm. Chances are a little higher over our northern counties.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:51 PM
May 11, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm. Some cumulus clouds. Only a 10% chance of an isolated storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small risk of a thunderstorm.
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? If thunderstorms form they could produce isolated hail and strong winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds over our northern counties. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated storm risk.
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated risk of lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:52 PM
May 12, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Very warm. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated if anything at all.
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph with gusts above 20 mph possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
May 13, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Nearing hot (I reserve the word hot for temperatures above 90 degrees).
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds. Warm. Most likely dry. I will keep an eye on a disturbance to our west and north.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor for any popup storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:53 PM
RAIN TOTALS
These totals run from now through 7 PM Sunday.
Notice, some areas receive no rainfall. These totals won’t include heavier thunderstorms that could drop bigger totals in isolated spots. Thunderstorms can always double or even triple what these graphics show. This happens frequently this time of the year into the summer months.
WPC/NOAA rain forecast
NAM 3K high-resolution model.
GFS model guidance
Canadian model guidance through Sunday
EC model guidance through Sunday
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday through Thursday night: Thunderstorms are possible. A few of the thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat currently appears low. Monitor updates. A few severe thunderstorms could develop across mainly the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern portions of southern Illinois. Elsewhere, the risk is lower.
Friday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm. If a storm were to develop it could be intense. Organized severe weather appears unlikely.
Here is the Storm Prediction Centers severe weather outlook. You can see the dark green and yellow across our northern counties. The light green is where thunderstorms are possible but below severe levels. The dark green is a level one (the lowest risk) risk. The yellow zone is a level two out of five risk. A few storms could be intense later today and tonight. The greatest concern is in the dark green and yellow zone. Even in that region, the risk is not all that great. A few storms could become severe with strong winds and hail. Overall, the risk at any given location is small. The tornado risk is low in our local area, as well.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- A cold front approaches the region today.
- A few showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
- Severe weather concerns.
- Warm weather into next week.
Good morning, everyone. A quick update this morning.
The main concern over the next 24 hours will be an approaching cold front from the west and north. This front has been the focus of a few showers and thunderstorms overnight (see radars). These showers and thunderstorms have been pushing eastward.
This is a weak cold front. It is expected to weaken and wash out over our region. That means dissipate.
The morning round of showers and thunderstorms will likely weaken as it continues to move eastward.
A few additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight. If the atmosphere can destabilize (after the morning clouds and scattered showers) then a few intense thunderstorms could develop mainly across our northern counties.
The risk of severe weather is conditional on the atmosphere being able to destabilize.
The greatest concern will be north of Perry County, Missouri and then eastward across portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Mainly along and north of a line from Carbondale, Illinois, towards Owensboro, Kentucky.
Widespread severe weather is unlikely. A couple of reports of wind and hail can’t be ruled out. A low tornado risk.
Is the Hrrr future-cast radar. This may be a bit overdone on the shower activity today. Notice the lack of additional storms this afternoon and tonight.
Some of the other model data show a bit more thunderstorm activity.
The NAM guidance shows a band of heavy storms forming this evening to our northwest. It drifts southeast and weakens with time.
7 PM NAM model
Thursday into the weekend should be mostly dry. I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. That would likely be the exception rather than the rule. I have placed rain chances at 20% or less Thursday into Sunday.
Sunday night and Monday could deliver a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity.
It will be warm through Sunday with daily highs in the middle and upper 80’s. Some areas may even approach 90 degrees.
WeatherBrains Episode 641
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Joining us for this episode is SPC Lead Forecaster John Hart. John is actually in the mountains of Colorado where he has been panning for gold. As far back as he can remember, he had always dreamed of being a lead forecaster for the SELS unit in Kansas City which is now called the SPC. After attending college in St. Louis, he worked at Channel 2 there for a while. Then, a few weeks after graduation he was lucky enough to get a job at the National Weather Service in Charleston, West Virginia, and interned there for two years. He was involved with a few computer programming projects there that got his name known, so when a job opened at SELS, he was able to get it. Since then, he’s been in this unit, but worked multiple jobs. He became a meso-forecaster in 1995, and then a lead forecaster in 2000.
John considers the events of April 27, 2011, to be the biggest event that he will experience in his career. But the show title comes from a comment John made about how no event is a slam dunk, there are always uncertainties in any weather event.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 19 at Rosscommon, MI
- Severe weather forecast Central US next couple of days
- Hail and high wind from West TX to NB today
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
