Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Tuesday, May 9, 2017: Great morning, everyone.

I will post maps and links in the comment section. I usually post little updates throughout the day.

Who is ready for SUMMER! I hope you raised your hand, because it is going to be a WARM day.

You can expect high temperatures from 82 to 86 across the region. I can’t rule out some local spots above 86 degrees.

How about that! We should have plenty of sunshine, as well.

Dry weather today and tonight.

We start to think about spotty shower and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday afternoon and evening over our far northwest and northern counties. That would mean Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.

Otherwise, Wednesday will be another day with plenty of 80+ degree weather for the region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from north to south Wednesday night and Thursday.

Our peak rain chances will be centered on Thursday and Thursday night. This, as a cold front pushes through the region.

I can’t rule out a few strong storms on Wednesday night into Thursday night. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out a couple of storms producing high winds and hail.

Overall, the severe weather risk appears fairly small. Small, but not zero.

As always, monitor updates.

Rainfall totals through Friday night will likely range from 0.40″ to 0.80″. Thunderstorms can easily double those numbers.

At this time, Friday evening through Sunday is shaping up dry and a little cooler. A springish weekend.

Enjoy!

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Need to track the rain?

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Major flood concerns along some rivers.

View the latest lake and river stage forecasts ~ here

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NOTE:  Daily videos are going to be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the video tab.  I will be having guest meteorologists help me with the videos.  

May 8, 2017

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Not as cool as recent nights.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 64     IL ~ 56 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 9, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Warmer.  Breezy.
Temperatures:   MO ~  82 to 86      IL  80 to 85      KY  82 to 86     TN  82 to 86
Winds: West and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Small chance for wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates over northern portions of the region (Mt Vernon area).
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A 20% for a shower or thunderstorm.  The rain chances would mainly be over northern parts of southeast Missouri, northern parts of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe some wet roads and lightning (mainly northern counties of the region)
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 10, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~  78 to 84       IL  76 to 82      KY  78 to 84     TN  78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low end risk for severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms late at night.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Low end risk for severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 11, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  72 to 76       IL  72 to 76         KY  72 to 76     TN  72 to 76
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Low end risk for severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 58     IL ~ 48 to 56      KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest and then becoming north at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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May 12, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for some showers.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~  60 to 65      IL  60 to 65         KY  60 to 65     TN  60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts  

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 46 to 52     KY ~ 48 to 54      TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 13,  2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~  68 to 72      IL  68 to 72         KY  68 to 72     TN  68 to 72
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~ 46 to 52      KY ~ 50 to 55      TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 14, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~  66 to 72      IL  66 to 72         KY  66 to 72     TN  66 to 72
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55      TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday through Thursday night:  We will have on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms.  I can’t rule out a few strong storms on Tuesday over our northern counties (Farmington towards Mt Vernon) and again on Wednesday and Thursday area-wide.  The overall severe risk appears low, but perhaps not zero.

Friday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some showers are possible on Friday.  Small chance for lightning on Friday.

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Weather analysis for the next few days:

River flooding continues in many areas.  Please avoid flooded roadways.  Monitor crest levels.

View the latest lake and river stage forecasts ~ here

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The weather over the coming week will be fairly normal for May.  The good news is that we are not facing a tornado outbreak.  It is May and normally May delivers severe storms.

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We will have a chance for some thunderstorms over the coming days.  The severe weather risk is marginal.  Low end risk.  A level one out of five risk.  I will post the SPC maps below.  SPC would be the Storm Prediction Center.  They are the ones who issue severe weather outlooks.  I don’t see anything in their outlook to argue with.  The set-up is not ideal for severe storms.

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Here is the outlook for Tuesday.  A small portion of eastern Illinois into northern Kentucky could have a few intense storms.  At this time, it appears Tuesday should remain dry (locally).  Small shower/storm risk.

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You can see on this map where the warm front will be on Tuesday.  Perhaps a bit further south than this, but close.  Most of the shower and thunderstorm chances will be along and north of the warm front.  As you can see, mostly north of us.

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Wednesday severe weather outlook.  The dark green is a marginal risk.  A one out of five risk.  Low end severe weather risk.

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This is the Thursday severe weather risk.  Mostly to our south.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

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The bottom line is that we will have some showers and storms over the coming days, but the overall severe weather risk is small.

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Again, best chances for rain will be on Wednesday night through Thursday night.

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It will be warm over the coming days.  Some might think it is quite warm!  You can expect some 80’s on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday.  Thursday’s high temperature will probably be tempered by clouds and precipitation.  Best chance for 80’s would be Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Tuesday high temperatures

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and Wednesday
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The best chance for rain will likely arrive Wednesday night into Thursday night.  I can’t rule out isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  The Tuesday and Tuesday night chances would be closer to Mt Vernon and then southeast into the Evansville, Indiana area.

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Wednesday could deliver a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well.  The chances would again mostly be over our northern counties and then slowly increasing chances further and further south.

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The stationary front will shift southward on Wednesday night into Thursday night.  This will help lift the warm and moist air at the surface.  This will help showers and thunderstorms to develop.

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Rainfall totals will likely rain from 0.40 to 0.80″ with pockets of one inch.  If thunderstorms were to develop then locally higher totals will likely occur.

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Let’s look at few models and what they are forecasting for rainfall totals.

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First, this is NOAA’s forecast.  These first two graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.  Click to enlarge the graphics.

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GFS model.  One of several models.

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Canadian Model

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EC Model

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You can see most of the guidance has a similar appearance.  None of the models are straying too far off from one another.

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Friday will also deliver a chance for a few showers.  The thunderstorm risk on Friday is low.  Cooler air by Friday, as well.  This will be behind our Wednesday and Thursday area of low pressure and cold front.  As the low moves off to the east that will place our region on the northwest side of the low.  That is the cool side.

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This first image is for Tuesday evening at 10 pm.  You can see a few showers and storms north of our area.   A few of these might dip further south.  Chances are low.

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Wednesday 10 am

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Not a lot of precipitation.  A few scattered showers/storms.  Low chances.

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Thursday 4 am

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Radar shows a bit more coverage.

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Thursday 7 pm

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms along an incoming front.  Coverage might be a bit more than this model is showing.

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The above images raise some question about precipitation coverage.  The NAM is not screaming widespread showers and storms.  It is showing more of the scattered types.

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I think the greatest risk for precipitation will be late Wednesday night into Thursday night.  I do think we see a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday/Thursday night.

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Let’s look at something a little different.  These are 12 hour rainfall totals from the GFS model.  Perhaps this will give us a better idea of what I am talking about for the greater precipitation coverage.

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This first image is the 12 hour rainfall totals from 7 am Wednesday through 7 pm on Thursday

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This next image is 7 pm to 7 am on Wednesday night and Thursday

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This next image is from 7 am Thursday to 7 pm Thursday

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You can see the coverage is greater on Thursday vs Wednesday.

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At this time, Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be cool and dry.  Perhaps highs in the 70’s.

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Saturday high temperature map

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Sunday high temperature map

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We look at the long range rainfall outlook from the GFS model.  Continued wet.

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