Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
7.  Long-range weather videos
8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
9.  Monthly outlooks.
10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

May 7, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Perhaps a few passing clouds.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 77      IL ~  72 to 75      KY ~ 72 to 75       TN ~  72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:53  AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54       IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54       TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:48 PM

May 8, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78      IL ~  74 to 76       KY ~ 74 to 76       TN ~  74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:52  AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Some increase in clouds late.  A slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.  Best chances would be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58       IL ~ 53 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56        TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered late
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways after midnight.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:49 PM

May 9, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Breezy.  A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Some storms could be strong.  The risk of severe weather is not zero.  Questions remain on instability.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 77 to 82      IL ~  76 to 80       KY ~ 76  to 80       TN ~  76 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.  Monitor the hail and strong wind threat.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense with hail and strong winds.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Sunrise: 5:51  AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Breezy.  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Monitor the risk of strong storms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65       IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of hail and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  Some storms could be strong.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:51 PM

May 10, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Breezy.  Partly sunny.  Quite warm.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86      IL ~  82 to 86      KY ~ 82 to 86       TN ~  82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Sunrise: 5:50  AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and mild.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65       IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check updated forecasts and radars.
Sunset: 7:51 PM

May 11, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Quite warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~  83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:49  AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds over our northern counties.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66       IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:52 PM

May 12, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Some afternoon cumulus clouds.  Very warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:48 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66       IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:43 PM

May 13, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 83 to 86      IL ~ 83 to 86       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~  83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise: 5:48  AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A  chance of a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66       IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 7:53 PM

RAIN TOTALS

Keep in mind, while viewing these images, that the models don’t handle thunderstorms all that well.  Some places could see two, three, or four times these amounts.  Those would be areas that pick up multiple thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms can always produce much higher rain totals.

WPC/NOAA rain forecast  through 7 PM Thursday

GFS model guidance through 7 PM Thursday

Canadian model guidance through 7 PM Thursday

EC model guidance through 7 PM Thursday

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one.  Click here.

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Monday through Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible late Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Thursday night: Thunderstorms are possible.  A few of the thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty winds.  The tornado threat currently appears low.  Monitor updates.

Friday through Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday:  Monitor updates.

Analog forecasts are showing some signals for strong storms next week.

What are analogs?

Wednesday outlook.  You can see the analogs do paint some potential in our region.

Thursday outlook

Sunday (let’s keep an eye on Sunday, as well)

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

• Warm week ahead of us.  Warm days.  A couple of chilly nights.
• Thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night into Thursday night.
• Severe weather concerns?
• Dry weather Friday into Saturday (perhaps Sunday).

The main weather story over the next 48 hours will be the nice weather.  A beautiful spring day is ahead of us.  I don’t think anyone will complain.  Highs today will mostly be in the low to middle 70’s.

Lows tonight will be on the cool side.  Expect upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

We will have mild to warm conditions the rest of the week (see details above in the daily forecast section of the digital media blog).

Wednesday high temperature

Thursday high temperatures

Friday high temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

A storm system will approach our region late Tuesday night and linger into Thursday.  This system will produce some thunderstorms.

There will be instability to work with this week.  CAPE numbers may be north of 1000.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

The greatest CAPE numbers will be Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Here is the CAPE forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Again, CAPE is energy for storms to tap into.

Basically, this simply means the atmosphere will be unstable.  If thunderstorms form then they could be strong or even severe.  A bit early to know how big of a risk this will be.

and Thursday

Thunderstorms will have a bit of shear to work with.  Shear is the turning of wind direction or speed with height.  The amount of shear is marginal for severe weather.  At least that is how it appears right now.

Some of the thunderstorms will likely produce strong winds and hail.  I certainly can’t rule out some severe weather warnings.  Monitor updates as we move through Wednesday and Thursday.

The tornado risk Wednesday into Thursday is low, but not zero.

The atmosphere should dry out again by Friday and Saturday.  I am monitoring storm chances Sunday.  For now, it appears a mild weekend will be in store for the region.  Hopefully, our storm system will exit by then.

Let’s look at the NAM future-cast radar.  Again, the models likely won’t handle thunderstorms all that well.  That means this graphic animation certainly won’t be exact.  Take the general idea that some shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to occur as we push into late Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Timestamp upper left.

WeatherBrains Episode 641

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Joining us for this episode is SPC Lead Forecaster John Hart. John is actually in the mountains of Colorado where he has been panning for gold. As far back as he can remember, he had always dreamed of being a lead forecaster for the SELS unit in Kansas City which is now called the SPC. After attending college in St. Louis, he worked at Channel 2 there for a while. Then, a few weeks after graduation he was lucky enough to get a job at the National Weather Service in Charleston, West Virginia, and interned there for two years. He was involved with a few computer programming projects there that got his name known, so when a job opened at SELS, he was able to get it. Since then, he’s been in this unit, but worked multiple jobs. He became a meso-forecaster in 1995, and then a lead forecaster in 2000.

John considers the events of April 27, 2011, to be the biggest event that he will experience in his career. But the show title comes from a comment John made about how no event is a slam dunk, there are always uncertainties in any weather event.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• Extremes: 103 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 19 at Rosscommon, MI
• Severe weather forecast Central US next couple of days
• Hail and high wind from West TX to NB today

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.