May 5, 2019: Weather update

Abbreviated free blog update for everyone today.

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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No

The highest chance of widespread rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Locally heavy rain. Storms likely.
Wet field conditions are the main concern.

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Sunday through Tuesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Monday night (scattered) into Tuesday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Wednesday through Saturday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible into Thursday evening.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates. The greatest risk may end up being Wednesday night into Thursday evening.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. 4

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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No major adjustments.

May 5, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Clearing. Mostly sunny once the cloud line clears. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog could reduce visibility
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:41 PM

May 6, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Warm. Mostly sunny. Nice day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 72° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could reduce visibility
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A widely scattered thunderstorm (mainly late). Greatest chance will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% to 30% IL 20% to 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Sunset: 7:49 PM
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:45 PM

May 7, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds with scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 84° SE MO 78° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 84° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 78° to 80
Wind direction and speed: South 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% to 40% Southeast MO 30% to 40% IL 30% to 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% to 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% to 30% Southeast MO 20% to 30% IL 20% to 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% to 30% Western KY 20% to 30% NW TN 20% to 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars.
Sunset: 7:50 PM
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:49 PM

Wednesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds during the day. Increasing clouds at night. Widely scattered thunderstorms during the day and a 40% chance of storms at night. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the middle 60s. South winds 8 to 16 mph

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Thursday: Medium confidence. Warm. Humid. Mostly cloudy. Some breaks in the clouds. A 60% chance of thunderstorms during the day and a 30% chance at night. Locally heavy storms are possible. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the l50s. Southerly wind at 10 to 20 mph during the day becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph Thursday night.

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Friday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds during the day. Partly cloudy at night. High temperatures in the lower 70s. Low temperatures in the middle 50s. North wind 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe storms. Lightning is possible Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday: Lightning is possible Tuesday through Thursday. Severe storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Monitor updates. Still early for too much confidence in the severe threat.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Totals added together. This includes day one through seven.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Dry today through Monday.
Isolated storms Monday night into Wednesday.
Widespread rain and storms by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

Current conditions.

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Forecast discussion.
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Today and tomorrow.

Dry weather today.

Clouds will depart slowly. Half of the region already has sunshine. The other half has clouds.

10:45 AM satellite.

You can see the clearing line. Clouds vs sunshine!

There is a difference in temperatures (because of the clouds)

Satellite link

Tuesday through Friday.

Scattered storms are possible as early as Monday night and Tuesday. Tuesday may have a slightly higher chance than Monday night and Tuesday night. Scattered storms into Wednesday.

A cold front approaches the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This front should trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Some of the rain could be heavy. Some of the storms could be intense. Monitor updates.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Models are going to struggle with this type of pattern.

Small ripples of energy will rise along the stalled boundary. Each can produce showers and thunderstorms.

This is the NAM model

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Here is the GFS model guidance

Time-stamp upper left.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693

Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: