May 3, 2019: Non-subscribers update. Severe weather outbreak coverage.

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Today: No. Avoid flooded roadways. Lightning is possible tonight.
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Tomorrow: Lightning is possible on Saturday.

Active/wet pattern will continue into next week and perhaps longer.
Flooding.

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Friday through Sunday night.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into Saturday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Monday through Friday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Monday night or Tuesday onward. There are timing differences on whether a few thunderstorms arrive as early as Monday/Monday night vs Tuesday onward.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible Monday or Tuesday onward.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible next week. I will be monitoring the potential of heavy rain.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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Decreased Saturday’s rain chances

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May 3, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm. Patchy drizzle is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Most likely the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until later tonight. Avoid flooded roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower before 10 PM. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Coverage increase as we move through the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? ** Keep in mind that we will likely remain dry the first part of the night. These chances increase as we move through the night ** MO Bootheel 90% Southeast MO 80% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 80% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:36 PM

May 4, 2019
** UPDATED **
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 66° to 74° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 5 to 6 High
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy early. Any remaining showers will end. Some clearing late. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and perhaps lightning strikes early in the evening. Rain ending west to east. Monitor the risk of fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars before 6 PM.
Sunset: 7:47 PM
Moonrise: 6:06 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:38 PM

May 5, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: A few clouds. Quite a bit of sunshine. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind less than 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 7:48 PM
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:41 PM

Monday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 10% to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Monday night. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southerly wind at 6 to 12 mph.

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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 30% to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Tuesday night. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the lower 80s. Low temperatures in the middle 60s. South winds 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

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Wednesday: Medium confidence. A 40% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Wednesday night. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. South winds 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today into tomorrow. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail on Thursday and Thursday evening. The tornado risk is low but definitely not zero. Monitor updates.

Saturday through Wednesday: Lightning is possible Friday and Saturday and then again on Monday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not anticipated Friday through Sunday. I would encourage you to monitor updates concerning the Monday through Wednesday part of the forecast. Locally intense storms are possible.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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More showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday is the pick day of the weekend.
Additional showers and thunderstorms next week.
Active weather pattern. Heavy rain. River flooding.

Current conditions.

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Forecast discussion.\

May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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Forecast discussion.

It was a long night of severe weather for many people. I finally ended my coverage at 1:30 AM as the last of the storms moved out of my forecast area.
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We had an outbreak of severe weather yesterday.

Numerous tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Tennessee.

I sent out a lot of app messages last night. That is because we had confirmed large hail (golf ball size) and tornadoes doing damage.

The rapid-fire tornado alerts went out every few minutes. Each radar scan and each report was sent to you in real-time.

We are fortunate that a town did not take a direct hit.

You can read every message I sent out and/or posted on social media at this link CLICK HERE

Here are some photos sent to me or found on Twitter and Facebook.

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Today and tonight:

Quite a few clouds today. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Most areas will stay dry through the evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms rapidly develop tonight and that will take us into Saturday afternoon.

Some locations may have an all-day rain on Saturday.

Rain ends on Saturday night. We will still have some clouds remaining. If we clear out then dense fog will be possible by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Keep that in mind.

We do not need more rain. Flooding is an issue in many areas. This situation may continue for several weeks.

Rain totals on Saturday should be moderate to locally heavy. A widespread 0.60″ to 1.20″ is anticipated with pockets of two to three inches possible.

Avoid flooded roadways, as always.

Heavy rain concerns over the next few weeks.

I am concerned that this active pattern may linger into next week and the following week.

Here are the latest WPC/NOAA excessive rainfall outlooks. This shows you where the risk of flash flooding/flooding will be the highest.

Green is a level one risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding). Yellow is a level two risk of flash flooding. Red is a level three risk of flash flooding. There are four levels. Four being the highest.

We are in a risk of flash flooding on Saturday.

Saturday’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Long Range

Monday through Friday (coming weeks)

I told quite a few people that we may beat the 1993 flood along the Mississippi River. That is happening in some counties.

I am concerned about how long the water is going to be in flood stage. Levees will fail in some areas. A long duration river flood event is underway.

The biggest concern right now is the Missouri Valley. That includes the Mississippi River.

We have a wet pattern that will continue into the coming weeks. We have snowmelt in Canada and the northern United States. All of that water has to come down the pike.

The Mississippi River is causing the Ohio River to back up. If a wet pattern develops or intensifies in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley then the flooding risk will increase across more of our region.

An active weather pattern is going to continue into next week and likely the week after. We have shower and thunderstorm chances every few days next week and perhaps the following.

It won’t rain all of the time. It will rain enough to cause problems. Heavy totals are likely before all is said and done.

Fields are wet. Farmers are having difficulties planting their crops.

The long-range precipitation outlook through the middle of May is for above normal precipitation.

I pulled the ensembles yesterday to see what they are showing.

These won’t be exact, of course. Take the general idea from them. Certainly, I am concerned about the rainy pattern continuing.

The general idea is that a wet pattern will continue for the coming weeks with several inches of rain likely.

What are ensembles?

Here are all of them.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them and not specifics.

Models are going to struggle with this type of pattern.

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Here is the Hrrr model guidance.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

Here is the high-resolution WRF model guidance.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

This is a longer animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is. This model goes out to Sunday, May 19th.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

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They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693

Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: