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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday Night – Becoming mostly clear. Chilly. Any showers or storms will be coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% early in the evening and mainly eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over eastern counties (if anything at all). Ending early.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Once any remaining showers/storms come to an end there should not be any other significant weather impacts. Patchy fog possible.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Thursday – Mostly sunny. We may have some clouds over our eastern counties. Southeast Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures will be around 73-76
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
An unsettled period of weather into next week.
Saturday – Partly sunny and warm. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible (low confidence). Mainly over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. A frontal boundary will be draped near the region. This will need to be monitored. Placement will be key to any precipitation chances.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most areas none. Wet roadways and lightning possible near the frontal boundary. Low confidence.
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Cool. I can’t rule out some showers and perhaps even thunderstorms mainly along the I64 area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% far northern counties.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways and lightning for our northern counties. Monitor updates for changes.
Sunday – Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s over southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Cooler temperatures are possible over parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. This will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday – Partly sunny. Mild. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and warm. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Monitoring weekend precipitation chances. Mainly our northern counties.
- Next week looks unsettled.
A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday evening. This front has been responsible for some showers and storms in the area. The front will push through our area on Wednesday night. This should leave Thursday into Saturday morning dry.
The next chance for precipitation will arrive around Saturday afternoon or night over our northern counties. Mainly the I64 corridor. But, some data brings showers and storms a bit further south into northwest Kentucky. This will need to be monitored. Otherwise, most of Saturday and Sunday will be dry for the region. Northern and northeastern counties will need to monitor rain chances.
There will be at least some chance for precipitation Sunday through most of next week. It is not going to rain all the day. It will likely not rain every single day at any given location. But, on and off shower and thunderstorm chances certainly appear possible/likely.
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday.
With next week being unsettled you will want to monitor updates. I can’t completely rule out a period or two of heavier storms. It is that time of the year.
Mild conditions will prevail this weekend into next week. The only exception will be where clouds are thicker. Part of the region could reach the lower 80s on Sunday. But, areas with clouds could remain quite a bit cooler. Keep that in mind, as we move forward.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I will be monitoring a cold front/warm front this weekend. Some storms are possible near the front. Most likely over our northern counties. Perhaps closer to I64 corridor.
Sunday night – Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible as a new storm system approaches our region. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. But, monitor updates. I can’t completely rule out a period or two of heavier storms.
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I continue to wrestle with weekend precipitation chances. Mainly for our northern counties.
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No major concerns
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
An unsettled pattern will develop this weekend into next week. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances. Perhaps the greatest chance for the entire area will be on Tuesday. But, it does appear several chances for showers and storms from Saturday into much of next week. Any weekend activity would probably be over northern parts of southeast Missouri, northern parts of southern Illinois, and perhaps northwest Kentucky.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
