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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
With this type of pattern I can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm in the region. But, no organized precipitation is forecast until late in the week. Just keep in mind…there could be a shower or storm popup. Isolated in nature.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and warm. A very slight chance for precipitation (less than 20% – mainly over southeast Missouri). High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm. A very slight chance for precipitation (less than 10%). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. A very slight chance for precipitation (less than 20%). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80’s. Winds southerly at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Tuesday is going to bring additional warm weather!
2. Weather weather into Friday.
3. Those with weekend plans should monitor the extended forecast part of the blog (scroll down for that). Precipitation will be possible.
Warm weather to continue in what is an odd pattern for early May.
Temperatures each day this week will peak into the 80’s with southerly winds. Humid, as well. Rain chances will be low (less than 20%). An occasional isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop up in the region from time to time. Most of the region will remain dry through Friday.
Low temperatures will be in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s each night. Not too bad.
Rain chances increase for the weekend. See extended part of the blog (scroll down further)
Tuesday High Temperature Forecast
Wednesday High Temperature Forecast
Thursday High Temperature Forecast
Great photograph out of Florida!
We do have a meteor shower late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Right now it appears viewing should be pretty good in our region. Click here for information on how to watch the meteor shower.
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No major changes to the ongoing forecast.
No major concerns.
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Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card through this week is going to be whether a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms will pop up today through Thursday.
There were some very light showers on Sunday over our far far northern and northeastern counties. I can’t rule out some additional precipitation chances through Thursday. Very isolated.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO/ONE for Tuesday. A very isolated thunderstorm can’t completely be ruled out today through Thursday. Very very isolated if they were to occur. Just keep this in mind.
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Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Very isolated precipitation chances through Thursday. If a thunderstorm were to pop up then of course it could produce an isolated downpour. But, most areas will remain dry.
A more general precipitation event is possible by the weekend. Rainfall amounts over the weekend could exceed 0.50″ if everything comes together as the charts indicate.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights:
1. Warm through the rest of the week and into the weekend
2. Although there will be small precipitation chances through the week…widespread rain may return by the weekend.
3. Stronger storms on Monday?
We are quite warm for early May. The latest outlook for the next week or so is warm. But, check out the second graphic. Will another cool shot move into the region?
Images from weatherbell.com
This map is the forecast anomalies for May 6th through May 11th. Will it be warmer than normal or cooler than normal? According to this forecast it will be warmer than normal. Lot of red on the map.
Now, this second map is for May 11th through the 16th. Cooler than normal? Might be according to these charts.
Most of this week the weather is going to be a repeat of the day before. That may start to change on Friday and certainly by Saturday-Monday.
Rain chances will increase at least by Saturday into Sunday. Not sure about Friday, just yet.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday-Sunday then have a back up plan in mind. I would not cancel any plans, just yet. I would simply monitor updates.
One thing is for certain…warm conditions this week with daily highs into the 80’s. This is an odd pattern for early May.
Here is the Saturday and Sunday weather map. All of that pink and blue are SCATTERED showers and some thunderstorms.
I don’t think it is going to rain all of the day on Saturday or Sunday. As a matter of fact, I am fairly certain it won’t. But, some rain chances appear fairly likely. Perhaps a 40%-70% chance through that time frame. More on Monday, as well.
Locally heavy rain and lightning will probably be the main concerns. Not seeing a strong severe weather signal.
The only concern might be on Monday as a cold front moves through the area. Perhaps some heavier storms with the front. Long way off to know the details of the front. Timing of the front, as well. Monitor updates, as always. It IS spring!
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
