Friday morning update
May 5, 2017: Good day, everyone!
We had a rainy night across much of the region.
Portions of southeast Missouri picked up four more inches of rain. That is four more inches than they wanted. There were several counties under flash flood warnings.
The band of rain, that is causing our precipitation, is slowly moving eastward. It is spiraling around the upper level low. That is why it looks like a hurricane on satellite.
There is a tale of two weather worlds, in our local region, this morning. We have sunshine over half the region. We have rain over the other half.
The clearing line will slowly move eastward through the day. There will be a sharp cut off on the clouds.
We dry out tonight and Saturday. There is one fly in the ointment and that is a fast moving system that will move through our region on Saturday. A few showers are possible along its path. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.
The current thinking is that the greatest chance for rain will be over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Perhaps portions of west Tennessee.
I will post some future-cast radar graphics in the comment section.
Not an all day rain. A few passing showers or thunderstorms.
Wide range of temperatures today. That is because of clouds and rain. Same for Saturday. Clouds will hurt high temperatures over portions of the region.
Dry Saturday night, Sunday, Sunday night, Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday.
I am watching a rain maker for Wednesday and Thursday. Still a bit early for details.
Have a wonderful Friday!
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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May 4, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Chilly. Showers likely. Breezy. Heavy rain likely over portions of southeast Missouri. It may also shift into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Rainfall totals greater than three inches possible in some spots. Avoid flooded roadways. High winds could topple some shallow rooted trees in the flooded areas.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 48 KY ~ 42 to 48 TN ~ 42 to 48
Winds: North and northwest winds 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the flood situation. Wet ground conditions could mean trees being blown over with winds less than 50 mph.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 5, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy early in the day. Perhaps some clearing late in the day over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Showers possible with greatest coverage over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. Rain ending from west to east through the day. Windy. Cool temperatures. There remains some question on how fast the rain exits.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North winds 10 to 30 mph with higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the flood situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming scattered and ending from west to east as the day wears on
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. A few showers possible, especially during the morning hours.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds. Clearing overnight. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 6, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Illinois, the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Smaller chances elsewhere. Warmer. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO 70 ~ 75 IL 68 ~ 74 KY 68 ~ 74 TN 68 ~ 74
Winds: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Lightning possible. Chances for showers might be contained to our far eastern counties.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the area will be dry. Perhaps a few showers or a thunderstorm with a passing system.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
Temperatures: MO 42 ~ 48 IL 44 ~ 48 KY 44 ~ 48 TN 45 ~ 50
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 7, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. It should be a nice day. Warmer. Sunday is the pick day of the weekend.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL 66 to 72 KY 66 to 72 TN 66 to 74
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 50 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 8, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. Should be a nice day. Hopefully some drying.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 72 to 76 KY 72 to 76 TN 72 to 76
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as cool as recent nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 9, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL 75 to 80 KY 75 to 80 TN 75 to 80
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out an evening thunderstorm over our far southeast and east counties. That would be east of LBL. Flooding will continue in many areas. Monitor lake and river stage forecasts. Many rivers are flooding.
Friday through Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
The big weather story continues to be the flood. Major flooding continues over a large portion of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The current rain is aggravating an already bad situation.
Rain will continue into Thursday night and early Friday morning. Locally heavy rain totals are still possible, especially over Missouri and Illinois. Avoid flooded roadways. Monitor lake and river stage forecasts.
Gusty winds are likely now through Friday. Occasional gusts above 25 mph are a possibility.
Rain will end from west to east on Friday morning. There remain some questions, however, as to just how fast the rain will leave southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. I am hoping most of the day will be dry.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday, then check the latest radars. Some rain showers will likely remain in the area.
NAM 3K high resolution model guidance shows a band of rain early in the morning over portions of Illinois and Missouri.
7 AM Friday morning
and 10 AM
4 PM
If rain lingers on Friday then it would probably be over our eastern counties.
By late Friday afternoon most of the precipitation should be over. Perhaps a slight chance over our far eastern counties for a remaining shower.
Clouds may thin from west to east on Friday, as well. Perhaps some clearing as we move through the day.
The weekend is shaping up to be fairly nice. There is a chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm n Saturday over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Currently it appears most of the region will remain dry. I will keep an eye on northwest Tennessee, as well. Otherwise, plan on a few clouds Saturday. Quite a bit of sun is anticipated for Sunday. Highs both days will top out in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Decent weather for early May.
Saturday future-cast radar. Perhaps a few showers. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm. Notice the afternoon radar image does show a band of storms over parts of northwest Tennessee. This is one models opinion.
7 AM Saturday
10 AM Saturday
4 PM Saturday
The pick day of the weekend will be Sunday.
Here are the NAM model guidance high temperature forecasts for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Dry weather is anticipated Monday and Tuesday.
Perhaps more showers and storms next Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
The GFS model shows a system on Thursday. More unwanted rain.
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
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I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
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