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- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
May 3, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. More coverage over southeast MO and southern IL and northwest KY vs elsewhere.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 76 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80 Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mild and breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~62 to 65 KY ~ 64 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
May 4, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. Warm and breezy. A few strong thunderstorms. The best chance of precipitation today will be across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Chances decrease as you move further north.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% north and 50% south IL ~ 20% north and 40% southern seven counties KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp afternoon)
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps locally heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Low risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. Evening storms could be strong. The greatest coverage of precipitation Friday night might end up over far southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Dime size hail. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some areas may still experience precipitation into Friday night.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
May 5, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. More clouds south vs north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greatest coverage over the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Lesser chances further north.
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Some rain in the region is likely at least during the morning hours. Southern counties have a greater chance vs northern.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light and variable from the southwest
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:47 PM
May 6, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A new system dropping in from the north could bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered, but low confidence.
Winds: West and northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. (northern counties).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence in rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 7, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Warm. A slight chance of a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 76 IL ~ 74 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 76 TN ~ 74 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps an isolated wet roadway
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 8, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:49 PM
RAIN TOTALS
Models vary in totals. This is partly due to convection/thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can double or even triple what everyone else receives. It is that time of the year. Keep this in mind.
These graphics show you what the WPC and three models are forecasting.
Click images to enlarge.
WPC/NOAA rain forecast through 7 PM Sunday
Hrrr model guidance (all of these maps include this morning’s rain). This graphic only goes out until 11 PM tonight.
GFS model guidance rain forecast through Sunday 1 PM
Canadian model guidance through 7 PM Sunday
EC model guidance through Sunday night
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday through Friday night: Thunderstorms are likely to occur Thursday into Friday. A few of the storms could be intense. Monitor updates. The main concern will be isolated damaging winds. The overall severe weather risk is rather low.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning will be possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a marginal risk (level one out of five) of severe weather today and tonight. Level one is the lower risk.
The dark green is marginal. The yellow is slight. The light green is simply non-severe thunderstorms.
Keep in mind, these are usually adjusted through the day. The bottom line is that a couple of storms could approach severe levels or become severe. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely.
Analog forecasts are showing some signals for thunderstorms in the Central United States over the coming days.
What are analogs?
Here are the analog maps. The colors basically mean thunderstorms are possible and some storms could be intense. The darker the color shading the greater the risk. The largest risk is too our west.
This is today. Thursday, May 3rd.
This is Friday, May 4th
This last one is Saturday, May 5th
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- Shower and thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
- A few strong thunderstorms possible.
- I did add some shower and storms to the weekend forecast.
- Warm weather to continue.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved into the region overnight. This is the same complex of storms that was in Oklahoma and Kansas last night. TAt that time, they were severe with hail and tornadoes. Thankfully, they weakened as they moved eastward.
Here is the radar loop from overnight. We do have additional showers and thunderstorms to our southwest. Those will be moving northeast today, as well.
Rainfall totals could be locally heavy today. Some of you will likely top an inch of rain between now and Friday night. Some areas, where thunderstorms train, could pick up over two inches of rain.
The severe weather risk is rather small. There could be a few reports of hail and isolated high winds. The main concern will be lightning and heavy downpours.
The system responsible for the precipitation will push into our region Friday and Friday night. There are indications that it will slow or stall over the southern half of the region. If this does occur then shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Friday night and perhaps even Saturday.
The greatest chance of this occurring would be across extreme southeast Missouri/Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Here is the high-resolution Hrrr guidance. This model shows quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity into tonight.
The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.
Let’s look at the high-resolution NAM 3K model guidance. This takes us out further in time. This takes us through 10 AM Saturday.
The NAM is bullish with continuing shower and thunderstorm chances into Friday night. This does make sense as the system has been slowing.
If you have outdoor plans Friday night or Saturday morning then check updates and radars.
On top of that, there are indications that another system will quickly drop southward into our region Sunday. This could bring a few more showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in Sunday’s forecast is rather low.
Here is the GFS model guidance. You can see the system moving north to south through our region.
Temperatures will be mild into next week. No cold shots in the forecast. That is good news. Maybe spring will settle in and stay awhile.
WeatherBrains Episode 641
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Joining us for this episode is SPC Lead Forecaster John Hart. John is actually in the mountains of Colorado where he has been panning for gold. As far back as he can remember, he had always dreamed of being a lead forecaster for the SELS unit in Kansas City which is now called the SPC. After attending college in St. Louis, he worked at Channel 2 there for a while. Then, a few weeks after graduation he was lucky enough to get a job at the National Weather Service in Charleston, West Virginia, and interned there for two years. He was involved with a few computer programming projects there that got his name known, so when a job opened at SELS, he was able to get it. Since then, he’s been in this unit, but worked multiple jobs. He became a meso-forecaster in 1995, and then a lead forecaster in 2000.
John considers the events of April 27, 2011, to be the biggest event that he will experience in his career. But the show title comes from a comment John made about how no event is a slam dunk, there are always uncertainties in any weather event.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 19 at Rosscommon, MI
- Severe wx forecast Central US next couple of days
- Hail and high wind from West TX to NB today
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
