May 28th, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Thursday through Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance of lightning today through Friday afternoon.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A small risk of damaging wind and hail. The main concern will be locally heavy rain and lightning.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated. There is no shortage of moisture. Thunderstorms can drop an inch or two of rain in less than an hour. Pockets of flash flooding will occur where this happens. Widespread flooding will not occur. Pockets of flash flooding where the heavier storms occur.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach danger levels? No. WBFT forecast below.

Thursday WBGT (F): 74° No issues.
Friday WBGT (F): 73° No issues.
Saturday WBGT (F): 70° Nice feel to the air.
Sunday WBGT (F): 70° Nice feel to the air.
Monday WBGT (F): 74° No issues.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

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** There will be dry times over the coming days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well **

May 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts. It won’t rain all day.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:58 AM
Moonset: 12:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

May 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and storms ending over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A chance of showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. A cold front will be moving through the region. Cooler temps behind the front and less humid. Dew points falling west to east. That means a nicer feel to the air once the front passes through your county.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 75° to 78° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° West KY 78° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: West becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Torrential downpours can briefly flood roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel plans. I would monitor radars. There will be some showers and thunderstorms to deal with.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing. Turning cooler. Patchy fog possible after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Any precipitation will have ended or will be ending early. Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 1:21 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

May 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cooler. Pleasant temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Pleasant temperatures. Perhaps some late night fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in areas of fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 1:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

May 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 75° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind from the north and northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:25 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 55° to 58° South IL 55° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 3:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 85° South IL 83° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 85° West KY 84° to 85° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:46 PM
Moonset: 3:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy during the afternoon. Warmer. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 88° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 88° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 4:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 88° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Becoming mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:22 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Once again, some fields will be wet.
On and off thunderstorm chances today and Friday. Locally heavy rain, again.
Drier Friday night into Tuesday.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 2nd. We have thunderstorms in the forecast through Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind will be possible. Lightning, of course. Be weather aware if thunderstorms approach your area. Move indoors until the thunderstorms pass.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated May 28, 2020

Thunderstorms today into Friday afternoon could produce pockets of heavy rain, gusty wind, and frequent lightning. Some isolated pockets of wind damage will be possible. Overall, the severe weather risk is low.

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Weather Discussion

1. Highs in the 70s today and tomorrow with clouds and some showers/storms.
2. A cold front arrives tonight and Friday. This will bring an end to our warm, humid, and unstable airmass.
3. Locally heavy rain and lightning are the primary concern today into tomorrow.
4. MUCH nicer this weekend. Perhaps some clouds lingering.
5. A ridge of high pressure builds in next week. Where it is centered will determine our high temperatures. Hot weather by mid/late week? Monitoring.

Another day with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.

There were some heavy thunderstorms this morning over southeast Missouri. There was even one report of hail.

You can see some of those storms on this radar image from around 6:15 AM. Those particular storms have pished off to the north.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be with us today, tonight, and on Friday. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, frequent lightning, and small hail. There is a small chance of severe thunderstorm warnings.

A strong cold front will arrive Friday afternoon. That will finally bring an end to our two-weeks of unsettled weather!

It will also deliver cooler and less humid air. The weekend is going to feel completely different than the last few days. Highs in the 70s. Lows in the 50s. Dew points in the 50s. Spring weather!

The only fly in the ointment could be a few clouds. There is some disagreement on the amount of cloud cover. For now, I went partly cloudy through the period.

Patchy fog is also possible each night/morning.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region next week.

Let me show you the 500 mb anomaly plot. Temperature anomaly at 18,000′. This is one controlling feature of our weather.

Let me compare this Sunday’s map vs late next week.

Notice how those black lines (height/temp) lines curve from NW to SE over our region? That is Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will be out of the north and northwest. Cooler air. Nicer air. A trough in the east and a ridge in the west. It will be hot in the southwest U.S.

That correlates to below normal temperatures this weekend. You can see that on this temperature anomaly map. This shows above and below normal temperatures.

We are in blue this weekend. Below normal temperatures.

Now, let’s move ahead to Friday. First, notice we are in the orange colors. Warmer heights.

See the black line (circle) south of our area (slightly). That is the center of the ridge of high pressure on the GEFS model.

That is warm air.

Now, let’s look at temperature anomalies. We are in the red next weekend. Above normal temperatures. The Mid to upper 80s appears likely.

A heat dome is what some meteorologists call this. If it were July, then we would be looking at the mid to upper 90s.

For now, we are looking at upper 80s and may 90. It will come down to the strength of the ridge of high pressure and placement of its core.

Let’s compare temperatures.

This Saturday’s high temperatures.

The GFS model is likely a little low. I have low to mid 70s.

This Sunday’s high temperatures.

The GFS model is likely a little low. I have low to mid 70s.

Next weekend high temperatures. Again, highly dependent on where the ridge develops.

Saturday

And Sunday

The EC brings thunderstorms into the region Wednesday night. For now, I have slight chances. I will need to monitor trends.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.