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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 27th through June 3rd
Current risk: None.
Current confidence level: High.
Comments: At this time, there are no tornado risks in the charts.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off chances into the weekend.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. Not at this time. Keep in mind that late spring and summer thunderstorms can produce isolated high wind gusts (downburst winds).
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? UNLIKELY. Any issues would likely be limited to ditches and streams that commonly flood during heavy downpours.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
This morning
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This afternoon
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
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Forecast discussion
- An unsettled weather pattern continues. We do have a few more days with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
- It won’t rain all of the time.
- See the rain probability graphics below for each 12-hour time period.
- Rainfall totals will vary. See the graphics below.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Lightning will be the primary concern. Wet roadways.
The chances of rain today will be a bit higher over southeast Illinois, southern Indiana, and the east portions of western Kentucky.
Here are the rain probabilities for today. This is from 7 AM to 7 PM.
What is the % chance of rain?
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Live Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps through Sunday.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
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- There is a 30–60% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across the Evansville Tri-State area. See the graphics below for details.I do not have severe weather in the forecast. Some storms could produce locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.
- After a short break in the rain, showers and thunderstorms return Thursday afternoon through early Saturday, especially across the southern and western parts of the region. Again, see the graphics below.Rain chances will likely peak again on Friday. Rain chances will range from 40–70%.
Discussion
May has been an odd one. Little or no severe weather is quite unusual for our region. May is peak tornado season. Let’s enjoy the lack of severe weather. Last year was brutal.
Low clouds and patchy dense fog are likely this morning, but the fog should clear quickly after sunrise.
For the rest of today, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly across the Evansville Tri-State area, where rain chances are around 30–60%. See the graphics below.
This morning’s weather map again shows the frontal boundary draped across our region.
That front will linger into the weekend. That means on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms.
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Moist air from the Gulf will continue moving north into the region, helping storms produce heavy rainfall at times, especially since storms may move slowly. The chance of any given location experiencing heavy rain is rather low.
Let me show you the moisture on the PWAT maps. PWAT is precipitable water
The purple and pink colors represent a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Notice how it streams northward. Eventually, the drier air to our north will squash that moisture southward.
The date and time stamp are located on the top left. Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Moisture will remain in the area through Saturday as a nearby front and low-pressure system linger close to the region.
There may be a brief break in the rain Thursday, but shower and storm chances increase Thursday night again into Friday as storms develop near the stationary front.
The front is expected to remain mostly south of the area, and atmospheric wind conditions remain weak, so the threat of severe weather remains low. Perhaps an isolated report or two of strong winds with any storms that collapse. We call these downburst winds.
Rain chances begin to decrease from Sunday through Tuesday.
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday
Notice how today’s chances are mostly over our northeastern and eastern counties. Lower chances across the rest of the region.
7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday
Tomorrow’s chances are mainly across my southern counties.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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