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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
May 24, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. A slight chance of a thunderstorm in the Missouri Bootheel and southeast Missouri. Hot
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: East and northeast 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Slight chance of wet roadways and lightning in the Bootheel and over towards Poplar Bluff.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of fog. Only a 10% chance of a thunderstorm. Again, typical summer pattern. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (SE MO)
Winds: Southeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 3:17 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:06 AM
May 25, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny this morning. Increasing clouds this afternoon. Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Greatest activity would be this afternoon. Rain could be heavy where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous late this afternoon.
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Small risk of a report or two of gusty winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Periods of clouds. A period of showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early. Rain could be heavy where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (mainly early)
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Low risk of a report or two of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars.
Sunset: 4:19 PM
Moonrise: 1:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:38 AM
Those with weekend plans should not cancel them. Yes, there will be some showers and thunderstorms dotting radar, but many areas will remain dry for long periods of time.
Storms that form could produce heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Typical summer pattern.
Heat index values will rise into the 90’s. Dew points will rise into the 68 to 72 degree range. Air you wear.
UV index values will pop to 8 and above where the sun shines.
The threat of severe weather will be isolated, at best.
Campers: Go camping. Monitor radars if storm clouds form. Lightning is always an issue in our region during the summer months.
May 26, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Winds: South and southwest 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A low end risk of severe weather. The concern would be downburst winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. If thunderstorms form then heavy rain could occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A low end risk of downburst winds. Isolated high wind reports.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 5:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:10 AM
May 27, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Hot and humid. A chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms form.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 2o%
Coverage of precipitation: None to widely scattered
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:42AM
May 28, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a bit of sun. Some cumulus clouds. Warm. Humid. Most of the area may remain dry. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 9 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area may remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:18 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:16 AM
May 29, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 4 – Low to medium (will need to monitor cloud cover)
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 8:16 PM Full Moon
Moonset: 5:54 AM
RAIN TOTALS
It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour. This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.
It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county. Typical, for our region. Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.
PWAT values, over the coming days, will be high. That means locally heavy rain is more likely. This is even more true if the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico develops and moves into our region.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday through Saturday night: Mostly isolated storm chances through Friday. For those who end up underneath one of these thunderstorms you can expect heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and lightning. Isolated reports of flash flooding are possible. An isolated report of high winds would be possible. The threat of severe weather is rather low.
Friday night through Tuesday: Locally heavy thunderstorms are again possible. We will need to monitor the severe weather risk. PWAT values will be high. That means heavy rain. I can’t rule out downburst winds. These winds can be isolated and likely won’t receive a severe thunderstorm warning. Keep this in mind over the coming weeks.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines.
- Warm temperatures. Cool nights.
- An increase in thunderstorm activity again possible as we move into the weekend and next week.
- Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
- Many areas will remain dry through at least Friday night.
- Monitoring the tropics.
Another warm day for the region. We should have plenty of sunshine again today.
Dew points today won’t be extreme, but they won’t be low, either. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere.
Dew points will slowly increase into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s as we move into Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Air you wear. Humid.
The increasing dew points will also mean higher shower and thunderstorm chances.
Thunderstorm chances today will be less than 10%. By Saturday, thunderstorm chances will have increased into the 40% to 50% range.
There is quite a bit of debate about the coverage. If you have weekend plans then monitor updates and radars. I would not cancel any plans. I would, however, recommend you monitor the latest forecast numbers and at least think about a backup plan in case we do have a period or two of thunderstorms.
During the summer months we can occasionally experience localized down burst winds (micro or macro-burst). These winds can produce small pockets of wind damage. By small I mean a block or less long and wide. We did have some reported over the past week.
Typically, these down burst winds occur from collapsing thunderstorms. Winds can exceed 60 mph. Normally these storms are not warned on. Why? Because they are brief in nature. They last seconds. By the time a warning were to be issued the storm would have dissipated.
Just keep that in mind over the coming weeks.
Evaporation and precipitation drag forms downdraft. IMPACT. Downdraft quickly accelerates and strikes the ground. DISSIPATION. Downdraft moves away from point of impact.
Thunderstorms can produce one to two inches of rain per 30 minutes to one hour. This is common in tropical-like air masses. Lot of moisture in the air. These type of rain events can cause small pockets of flash flooding.
Here is the PWAT animation.
Those purple and pink colors are high PWAT values. Notice the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S. We will then to monitor that plume of higher PWAT values.
In addition to the above, frequent cloud to ground lightning and small hail can occur with storms.
I am keeping a close eye on a possible tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The waters are quite warm.
The main concern will be heavy rain. It is possible the system increases to a tropical depression or tropical storm. Either way, the concern is very heavy rain totals along the Gulf of Mexico.
The exact track of this system is key to our weather. If the system moves into our local area then very heavy rain totals would occur.
At this time, it is still too early to know if this system will develop and move into our region.
Model guidance indicates a path anywhere from Louisiana to Florida.
Monitor updates.
You can see the system near the Yucatan Peninsula.
National Hurricane Center forecast track cone. Still a lot of uncertainty.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 643
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Meteorologist at National Severe Storms Laboratory and a visiting Professor of Atmospheric Science at Desert Research Institute and the University of Nevada-Reno. He is the author of the recent AMS Book: Verner Soumi: The Life and Work of the Founder of Satellite Meteorology. He joins us tonight from his daughter’s home in Sacramento. Please welcome Dr. John Lewis to WeatherBrains.
Throughout his career, Dr. Lewis has conducted research that has combined weather analysis with numerical weather prediction. His professional experience has been divided between work in government labs including operational prediction centers and academia. In the past decade, he has led a national research project focused on the weather over the Gulf of Mexico, Project GUFMEX, explored the use of adjoint methods to study model sensitivity, and contributed to the history of science. In 1998, the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA assigned Dr. Lewis to Desert Research Institute on a long-term duty assignment. This assignment was made in connection with a 5-year plan to improve weather forecasting in the Western United States. Central to this effort is the use of adjoint models to clarify the relative importance of the various meteorological fields used to initialize deterministic prediction models.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 23 at Stanley, ID, Crested Butte, CO, & Gothic, CO
- Non-tropical low off the west coast of Florida
- Severe weather Tuesday over Mid-Atlantic states
- Serious drought from AZ to West TX
- Fairly warm across the continental US
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
