May 21, 2019: Non-subscriber post

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Tuesday: Monitor. Some lightning during the morning hours. Severe thunderstorms are possible late in the day on Tuesday and more likely Tuesday night. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Tornadoes are possible. QLCS tornadoes. These are usually short lived but can cause EF0, EF1, and EF2 wind speeds. A tornado is a tornado.
Wednesday: Monitor. Storms may linger into Wednesday. A few could be strong.
Thursday: A slight chance of lightning.
Friday: No
Saturday: No
Sunday: No
Monday: No

More of the same. The main problem has been wet ground conditions.
Some of the storms on Tuesday afternoon and night could produce very heavy rain and even hail. I will be monitoring the risk of damaging wind gusts, as well.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding

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Tuesday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning). Some lightning is possible. Lightning is likely on Tuesday late afternoon into Tuesday night. I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well. I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning). Lightning is possible on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. An isolated lightning strike is possible Thursday afternoon.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. Likely. Severe storms are possible Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well. All modes of severe weather will be possible if the atmosphere can recover from the morning showers and thunderstorms/clouds. A strong storm is possible on Wednesday. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Storms will produce heavy rain. Isolated flooding issues may develop.

Friday through Monday

Is lightning in the forecast? Low risk. An isolated thunderstorm is possible during the heat of the day. The best chance (even that is small) will be on Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

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May 21, 2019
Today: Temperatures today will be highly dependent on the clouds and showers coming to an end this morning. Temperatures, across portions of the region, are cooler than anticipated this morning. A band of showers and weakening thunderstorms will push into the area Tuesday morning. A few spotty showers and storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, as well. Increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon. I will be monitoring a developing line of severe thunderstorms in western and central Missouri and Arkansas. This line will push eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms will be severe.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast wind at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty winds in the afternoon.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning hours, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered elsewhere.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some storms could be intense late in the day and more likely Tuesday night. Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. This will most likely be over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Mainly towards late in the day into Tuesday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Go about your business but monitor afternoon updates.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to east. Some storms will be severe. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. We will need to monitor the rest of the area for severe storms, as well. Even though the line may be weakening it could still produce some damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. Monitor updates through the day and night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 100% IL 90% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 80% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous with a line of storms moving in from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 8:02 PM
Moonrise: 10:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:58 AM

May 22, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible. Warm. Humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% to 50% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 40% to 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Mild for May. Humid. An evening thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. I will monitor northern portions of southern Illinois for a storm or two.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor lower visibility if fog forms. A slight chance of lightning and wet roadways near Mt Vernon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:50 AM

May 23, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm. Humid. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roads and isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check afternoon radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few evening clouds with an isolated evening thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Mild. Humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor lower visibility if fog forms. Isolated wet roads and isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:44 AM

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Friday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and muggy. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
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Saturday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and muggy. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.
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Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Low temperatures in the upper 60s. South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.

Monday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. An isolated storm is possible. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday: Morning storms should be sub-severe. Thunderstorms will push into the region later this evening and tonight. The main concern will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates. Some storms could be intense with hail, high winds, and tornadoes.

Wednesday: A few storms will linger into Wednesday. If storms do occur then a few could be strong.

Thursday: Severe storms are not anticipated. Small chance of lightning.

Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated.

Saturday: Severe storms are not anticipated.

Sunday: Severe storms are not anticipated.

Monday: Severe storms are not anticipated. Isolated lightning.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Tuesday’s storms are the main topic.
Quite warm through Memorial Day weekend.

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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Today into Tuesday night:

We will have morning showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

See the live interactive city-view radars.

This dying area of showers and thunderstorms will leave some clouds around the area through the day.

A boundary will be draped across our region later today and tonight. This boundary will enhance severe thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the placement of the boundary for tornadoes, as well.

The boundary should be between St Louis and Perryville, MO and then east northeast of there.

Outside of that boundary, there will be numerous showers and thunderstorms, as well. Some will likely be severe.

A few pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any given point today, however, the main show will be later this evening into Tuesday night.

A severe weather event is likely to impact at least portions of our region later today and tonight.

Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with a line of thunderstorms that will sweep into eastern Missouri and parts of southern Illinois late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

The line will then weaken as it continues to move further east. How fast it weakens will determine how far east the severe weather threat will continue. That will be a now-cast. The word now-cast means it will be forecasted in the 4 to 8-hour range as conditions unfold.

For now, monitor updates throughout the day into tonight. I will have the live blog feed going.

If any supercells form ahead of the line then they could produce strong tornadoes and a higher end severe weather event. This will need to be monitored closely.

Click images to enlarge them.

This is a QLCS. A line of thunderstorms with segments and bowing segments. Typically, these produce damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes that are often times embedded in the rain.

You can see the WRF model guidance depicts that squall line (line of thunderstorms) quite well.

It marches off to the east and northeast.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is likely to be issued for at least portions of our region later today and tonight.

Some warnings are also likely. Monitor my live severe weather feed later today.

Click to enlarge. Timestamp upper left.

Wednesday through Sunday

We may have some showers and thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday and perhaps early Wednesday night.

Quite warm and muggy weather will also develop Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. Dew points will jump into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. That is muggy air. It won’t feel like May.

Check out these dew points. These are the type of dew points that we typically see in July or August. Not May!

70-degree dew points are uncomfortable. Air you wear (as Jim Rasor says).

Wednesday afternoon/night.

Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is a small chance of storms Thursday afternoon and night. Perhaps the greater chance on Thursday night will be closer to St Louis to Mt Vernon.

For now, I have Friday through Monday as mostly dry. There is always a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the heat of the day. For the vast majority of the region, we should remain dry.

I am monitoring the model guidance concerning a boundary that may fluctuate near our region (see the GFS model animation below). Most likely a tad to the north, but close enough that we need to monitor it.

That boundary will be the focus of showers and storms. If the boundary drifts southward then our rain chances will increase.

I will be monitoring this portion of the forecast.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Here is the lower resolution NAM model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: