Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Previous updates below it.

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12 AM

End of this event

11:30 PM

The line of storms continues to rapidly weaken as it moves east.

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11:14 PM

Storms in far western KY are behind the gust front. Typically, that means they are not severe. Locally heavy rain and lightning.

The severe weather concerns have come to an end.  I do not expect any additional warnings.

CAPE values (energy) are dropping.  The main band of storms will continue to slowly move east and stall.

Rain will continue into tomorrow morning across the Bootheel, western Kentucky, and mainly southeast Illinois.

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10:42 PM

Jefferson, Franklin, Williamson, and Johnson. The rotation has currently weakened but radars show strong winds with some of these storms. Hamilton, Saline, and Pope will eventually receive these storms. Unless a tornado warning is issued I will leave this as the last message.

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10:34 PM

Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: 3 SE Anna [Union Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 10:19 PM CDT — 2.5 miles SE of Anna at the intersection of HWY 51 and 630 N.

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10:21 PM

PAH NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.88 IN] for Franklin, Williamson [IL] till 11:00 PM CDT

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10:21 PM

Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: Carterville [Williamson Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E55 MPH at 10:15 PM CDT — estimated 55 mph winds and penny sized hail.

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10:20 PM

Western Pulaski County. SE Union County. Radar shows high winds on the county border with NE Alexander County.  The storm is moving NE at 50 mph.

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10:17 PM

Rotation approaching Carterville, IL. Be alert. Small tight area of rotation within the storm.

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10:08 PM

Union and Alexander Counties be aware new storms are training through your counties. High winds are possible. Short-lived tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Flash flooding of roadways possible.10:07 PM

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Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: Woodlawn [Jefferson Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E55 MPH at 09:55 PM CDT — estimated 55 mph wind 15 miles north of Sesser, Illinois.

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10:00 PM

PAH continues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Franklin, Perry [IL] till 10:00 PM CDT …AT 952 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER VALIER, OR NEAR CHRISTOPHER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PAH issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Franklin, Jefferson [IL] till 10:30 PM CDT …AT 1000 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER REND LAKE AREA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
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10:00 PM

Eastern Cape Girardeau County and western Union County. A new storm with rotation moving towards Neely’s Landing. This storm is moving NE at 50 mph. Be alert.

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9:58 PM

NW Franklin County. Jefferson County, IL. A storm moving through NW Franklin County, with rotation, continues to move NE at 50 mph. This storm could produce short-lived tornadoes. Seek shelter until the storm passes.

9:57 PM

Rotation approaching Makanda, IL.

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9:55 PM

Scott and Alexander. Two new storms have rapidly developed over the last 30 minutes. They do show rotation, as well.

Let’s remain alert.

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9:53 PM

Cape Girardeau County. Storm with very heavy rain is moving NE through your county. Strong winds possible. Heavy rain may be the main concern with that storm. Torrential downpours.

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9:50 PM

Storm with rotation is moving towards Cobden, IL.  The storm is now near or north of Jonesboro, IL. Seek shelter until this storm passes. It is moving NE at 50 mph.

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9:47 PM

PAH NWS  issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Jefferson [IL] till 10:15 PM CDT

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9:45 PM

CARBONDALE/MURPH, IL (MDH) ASOS anemometer reports gust of 58 MPH.

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9:44 PM

Alexander County the storm has cleared your area. The concern is over for the time being.

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9:40 PM

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9:39 PM

Northern Alexander. Union County, Western Johnson County. Southwest Williamson County. SE Jackson County, IL. A storm with rotation is moving NE at 50 mph. The rotation is now near East Cape Girardeau, IL.

PAH issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Franklin, Jackson, Perry [IL] till 10:00 PM CDT …AT 935 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELKVILLE, OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURPHYSBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PAH issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: <.75 IN] for Cape Girardeau [MO] and Alexander, Jackson, Union, Williamson [IL] till 10:15 PM CDT …AT 936 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WARE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRAIL OF TEARS STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

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9:35 PM

NE Jackson County. SE Perry County, IL. Western Franklin County. Be alert. A storm with some rotation is entering your area. Right now it is near Elkville. Seek shelter until this storm passes. Movement is NE at 50 mph.

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9:30 PM

Perry County, IL. Update. Strongest rotation is near Tamaroa. This is 10 miles NE of Pinckneyville, IL. The storm is moving NE at 45 mph. Stay alert. Seek shelter until the storm passes. Western Jefferson County, IL be alert.

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9:27 PM

Torrential downpours with this cell in Jackson County, IL. This storm is producing enough rain to temp flood some commonly flooded roadways. Bright colors are the heaviest rain. Hail possible..

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9:24 PM

Heavy storms to the west of this line are producing quite a bit of rain. Flash flooding will be a concern where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas.

This line is going to slow over the coming hours.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Southeast IL, Bootheel, west KY, and NW TN need to monitor but the greater risk continues to be SE MO and SW IL.

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9:22 PM

We are seeing most storms spin. So far, there have not been confirmed tornadoes. Often times thunderstorms do spin.

Occasionally, that spin makes it down to the surface.

Most tornado warnings do not produce tornadoes. It only takes one.

It is hard to tell which storm actually ends up producing a tornado.

That is the nature of tornado warnings.

Radar shows rotation. Sometimes we can see debris on the radar.  Not seeing that, yet.

It is now dark and spotters can’t see what is happening.

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9:20 PM

Jackson County, IL. Rotation is not as strong. Severe thunderstorm warning continues for portions of your county. Be alert.

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9:18 PM

PAH issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.88 IN] for Cape Girardeau, Scott [MO] and Alexander [IL] till 9:45 PM CDT

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9:14 PM

Scott and Alexander Counties. I am tracking a small cell with rotation between Chaffee and Benton, MO moving NE at 45 mph. Be alert as this storm approaches.

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9:10 PM

Perry County, IL. I continue to track a storm with rotation. It is now near Pinckneyville, IL. Seek shelter as this storm moves NE at 50 mph.

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9:06 PM

PAH KY NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Perry County [IL] till 9:45 PM CDT

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9:04 PM

This is the hook echo approaching Grand Tower, IL.  Seek shelter.

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9:02 PM

Updated tornado watch

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9:02 PM

Areas in and near Grand Tower, IL should seek shelter until the storm passes. Rotation will pass in and near this area shortly.

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8:59 PM  Storm Report

Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: 3 W Harviell [Butler Co, MO] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:02 PM CDT — Late report of a house damaged on 10932 u.s. 160 Harviell mo which is .09 mile west of u.s. 67.   The covered rear deck was picked up and thrown approx. 100 yards north of home.  The roof of the home was damaged along with a chimney.  One out-building (barn) had tin removed from the roof appears to straight-line winds. time was 7:02 pm.

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8:58 PM

PAH NWS continues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Cape Girardeau, Perry [MO] till 9:15 PM CDT …AT 856 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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8:57 PM

Rotation is moving in or near Fruitland moving NE at 50 MPH. Areas to the NE of this storm should seek shelter until storm passes. Southeast Perry County, MO. Northern Cape G County. Southwest Jackson County, IL. Extreme NW Union County, IL.

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8:55 PM

Perry County, IL. Be alert as a storm approaches from northern Jackson County, IL.  The storm has a history of rotation.

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8:50 PM

Jackson County, IL. Rotation near Ava moving NE at 45 mph. Be alert. Seek shelter till storm passes.

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8:47 PM

The second area of rotation continues to move NE at 45 mph. It will pass just west or near Jackson, MO. Anywhere along the path should seek shelter. Fruitland be alert.

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8:45 PM

PAH issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Cape Girardeau, Perry [MO] till 9:15 PM CDT …AT 844 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BURFORDVILLE, OR NEAR BOLLINGER MILL STATE HISTORIC SITE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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8:41 PM

PAH NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Jackson [IL] till 9:15 PM CDT

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8:40 PM

Cape Girardeau County, MO. I am monitoring rotation just west of Gordanville. Be alert.

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8:39 PM

Bollinger County, MO. The severe threat has ended for your county.

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8:36 PM

Jackson County, IL. An intense storm is approaching from central Perry County, MO. The storm should pass between Gorham and Campbell Hill, IL. Any from central Perry County, MO into this part of Jackson County, IL should stay alert.

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8:32 PM

PAH NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.88 IN] for Bollinger, Cape Girardeau [MO] till 9:00 PM CDT
This is for the southern cell.

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8:30 PM

Perry County, MO. Circulation is between Longtown and Appleton, MO moving NE at 45 mph.

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8:25 PM

NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Cape Girardeau, Perry [MO] till 9:00 PM CDT

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8:23 PM

Northern Bollinger County. The rotation has left your portion of the county.

Live radar http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_cape.htm

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8:21 PM

Perry County, MO. Be alert a storm is moving into your county from NE Bollinger and NW Cape Girardeau Counties. The storm has a history of rotation and high winds.

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8:20 PM

Southern Bollinger, northern Stoddard, and southern Cape Girardeau. Another area of rotation is now near or just north of Advance, MO moving NE at 45 mph. Be alert.

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8:17 PM

Bollinger/Cape Girardeau Counties. Rotation will be near Daisy, MO and Oak Ridge, MO in the next few minutes.

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8:15 PM

Rotation is crossing MO 72 a few miles S-SE of Sedgewickville, MO

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8:09 PM

Official now Paducah NWS issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Bollinger, Cape Girardeau [MO] till 8:30 PM CDT …AT 806 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PATTON, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF MARBLE HILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

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8:09 PM

Northern Stoddard, Southeast Bollinger, Southern Cape Girardeau Counties. Rotation northeast of Puxico is moving NE at 50 mph. Be alert. Advance, MO be alert.

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8:04 PM

White box zone be alert.  A tornado is possible.

8:04 PM Rotation north of Marble Hill is moving NE at 40 mph. Be alert. This storm will eventually move into central and northern Cape Girardeau County.

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8:02 PM

As we lose daylight I am anticipating the storms to begin to weaken over the next few hours.

For now, they remain strong and could produce damaging wind and even short-lived tornadoes.  The greatest risk is over southeast Missouri.

Southwest Illinois should be monitoring, as well.

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8:02 PM

Bollinger County, MO. Storm near or NW of Marble Hill, MO has rotation. It continues to move NE at 40 mph. Be alert.

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7:58 PM

Stoddard. An intense cell south of Puxico is moving NE at 40 mph. This storm could produce high winds. Be alert.

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7:46 PM

Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties. A strong storm with some rotation approaching the Marble Hill area. Moving NE at 40 mph. Be alert. The storm will eventually push into central and northern Cape Girardeau County.

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7:54 PM

PAH NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Bollinger [MO] till 8:30 PM CDT

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7:48 PM

Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties. Intense storms passing between and near Grassy and Zalma, MO. This storm could produce high winds. It is moving NE at 40 mph.

Live radar link  http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_cape.htm

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7:39 PM

Northern Randolph. Rotation near Baldwin, IL moving NE at 40 mph. Seek shelter until this storm passes.

Live radars

http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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7:38 PM

Strong storm SE of Greenville, MO. You can see the top of it on the visible satellite.

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7:33 PM

Bollinger County. I am tracking an intense storm E SE of Greenville, MO moving NE at 40 mph. Be alert as this storm approaches. High winds are possible.

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7:23 PM

I continue to monitor rotation in St. Genevieve County, MO. The strongest area is SW of the City of St. Genevieve.

St. Genevieve and Randolph Counties. Continue to be aware as storms move through your counties. Radar occasionally shows rotation with the storms.

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7:20 PM

Later this evening, the line may almost stall. It will certainly slow its forward movement.

This also leads me to believe the greatest concern is the next couple of hours.

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7:15 PM

CAPE is starting to fall. That is good. I am also starting to see an inversion develop.

Those are both things we want to see.

I believe the storms will likely peak over SE MO and then weaken as they move further and further east.

SE MO and SW IL continue to be the main concern over the next couple of hours.

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7:05 PM

Paducah, KY, NWS issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Butler, Wayne [MO] till 7:30 PM CDT

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7:01 PM

St. Genevieve County, MO. Tracking this storm with possible short-lived tornadoes. Be alert.

The image on the left shows the circulation zone.

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6:56 PM

Perry County, MO. Be alert as storms approach your county over the next hour. Pockets of high winds will be possible.

6:46 PM

St Genevieve and Randolph. Be alert radar shows occasional brief areas of rotation. These can produce short-lived tornadoes.

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6:40 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Ripley [MO] till 7:15 PM CDT

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6:37 PM

Butler County, MO. Storms approaching from the W SW are moving NE at 40 mph. These storms could produce patchy damaging wind gusts in the county.

6:35 PM

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6:33 PM

Randolph. A line of storms is approaching from the W SW. This line is moving NE at 40 mph. As the storms move through Randolph County, IL they could produce patchy damaging wind gusts and penny size hail.

6:30 PM

You could clearly see the tornado doing damage to the SW of St Louis, NWS Office.

That tornado has lifted. New ones could form.  Tornado warning for the St Louis area.

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6:20 PM

St. Genevieve Although still to the west, a line of intense storms is approaching from the W SW. Storms are moving NE at 40 mph. High winds are possible with the strongest storms.

6:01 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.75 IN] for Crawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Madison, Reynolds, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Washington [MO] till 7:15 PM CDT

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5:52 PM

PAH continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.75 IN] for Carter, Ripley [MO] till 6:15 PM CDT

5:49 PM

SPC update concerning the tornado watch.

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5:21 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning [tornado: POSSIBLE, wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.75 IN] for Carter, Ripley [MO] till 6:15 PM CDT

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CDT Tue May 21, 2019

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Western Carter County in southeastern Missouri…
Western Ripley County in southeastern Missouri…

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 520 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Winona to near Alton to near Mammoth Spring,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include…
Van Buren, Gatewood, Handy, Fremont and Briar.

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5:05 PM

The forecast is on track.

The greatest risk of severe storms over the coming hours will be SE MO and then SW IL. The line is forecast to rapidly weaken later tonight as the better wind shear pulls away to the north.

It will be a race against time between that happening and the line weakening.

5:00 PM

A weather watch is unlikely for the MO Bootheel.  Severe storms are, however, possible.

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4:50 PM

4:50 PM CAPE has likely peaked. The air is unstable ahead of this squall line. It will remain severe for several more hours. Isolated tornadoes are possible.

CAPE is basically energy for storms to tap into.

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4:34 PM

A bit to the west of my forecast area.

Local Storm Report by NWS Sringfield: 3 SW Edgar Springs [Phelps Co, MO] public reports TORNADO at 04:25 PM CDT — tornado on the ground southwest of edgar springs. debris being picked up in the air at the moment. small elephant trunk tornado.

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3:45 PM

The Ohio Valley video team has posted an update.  Remember, this covers a much larger area than just my local counties.

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3:38 PM

Live radar CLICK HERE

A line of storms is approaching southeast Missouri from the west.  The line is moving E NE.

You can see it on this radar.

There are embedded tornadoes in the line.

The NWS continues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 1.75 IN] for Wright [MO] till 3:45 PM CDT …AT 334 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARTVILLE, OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN GROVE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

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3:15 PM

A new tornado watch has been issued until 10 PM for SE MO and SW IL

Click on the images to enlarge them.

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3:00 PM Update

Discussion from SPC.

The line of storms is becoming more supercells vs being a line.  Here is the latest.

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1:35 PM

Here are some of the parameters coming together for severe thunderstorms.

Anytime we have sunshine that equates to warmer temperatures (this time of the year).

Warmer temperatures when combined with high dew points (moisture in the air) you have higher CAPE numbers.  Think of CAPE as energy for storms to tap into.

Here is the satellite.

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Here are the latest CAPE numbers

Notice the higher CAPE numbers are where the clouds have thinned.  This is also south of the warm front.

Dew points have rapidly increased over the last four hours.

Dew points are moisture in the air.  Higher dew points usually mean stronger thunderstorms and heavier rain.

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Here is the warm front.  The warm front is the red half moons.  That is the boundary moving northward.

Stronger storms typically occur along and south of the warm front.

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Temperatures have rapidly risen south of the warm front.  Almost 90 across portions of the area.  Much cooler north of the warm front.  Notice that Mt Vernon is 63 degrees and northwest Tennessee is near 90.

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See the boundary in western Kentucky?  Boundaries need to be watched during severe weather.  Keep in mind, this boundary is slowly lifting northward.

It will move into southern Illinois later today.

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EHI numbers are spiking along and south of the warm front.

EHI is spin in the atmosphere (basically)

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1:05 PM

A new tornado watch has been issued.

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11:05 AM

Check out the agreement among all the high-res models.  This is 8 PM tonight and all of them show the same idea.

The more agreement the higher the confidence levels.

Click to enlarge.

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11:00 AM

Some of the model data suggest a few isolated storms form ahead of the main line. IF that happens then the timetable for storms would need adjusting. Keep that in mind.

4 PM radar shot from the WRF model.

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10:45 AM

A new tornado watch will be issued shortly.

This watch may be just a tad west of my forecast area.   A new watch is likely later today, as well.

Click above and below to enlarge these images/text.

 

10:30 AM Update

Here are the latest morning model runs.

Notice how fast this thing fall apart tonight?  Rapidly decreasing as it moves east.

Keep that in mind.  Not everyone will have severe storms.  The main concern is southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Time-stamp is located at the upper left.

These are different models.  Notice they generally have the same idea.

We will need to monitor for any discrete supercells that form ahead of the line.  Supercell storms can produce all modes of severe weather.

Click images to enlarge them.

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10:00 AM Update

Severe storms are likely later this afternoon and tonight.

The main concern will be across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  The line is forecast to weaken as it moves further east.

Satellite shows the clearing line where the atmosphere is heating up and becoming unstable. Remember, sun = more instability.

Radar shows the line of storms well to our west.  It is moving eastward.

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Dew points are rising south of the boundary (where clearing is occurring).  Dew points are a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  It is a better gauge than humidity.

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CAPE values are rising.  CAPE is energy for storms.  Notice how the higher dew points, the clearing, and the higher CAPE values line up.

 

 

 

 

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12. County maps.  I made a page with county maps.  Some of you requested this.

Do you have questions or suggestions?  If so, please email me.  Beaudodson@usawx.com

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Tuesday:  Monitor.  Some lightning during the morning hours.  Severe thunderstorms are possible late in the day on Tuesday and more likely Tuesday night.  The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Tornadoes are possible.  QLCS tornadoes.  These are usually short lived but can cause EF0, EF1, and EF2 wind speeds.  A tornado is a tornado.
Wednesday:  Monitor.  Storms may linger into Wednesday.  A few could be strong.
Thursday:  A slight chance of lightning.
Friday:  No
Saturday:  No
Sunday:  No
Monday:  No

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1.    More of the same.  The main problem has been wet ground conditions.
2.    Some of the storms on Tuesday afternoon and night could produce very heavy rain and even hail.  I will be monitoring the risk of damaging wind gusts, as well.
3.    River flooding continues in many areas.  Low-land flooding.

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Tuesday through Thursday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).  Some lightning is possible.  Lightning is likely on Tuesday late afternoon into Tuesday night.  I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well.  I will be monitoring a line of storms approaching from Missouri after 3 AM (Tuesday morning).   Lightning is possible on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.  An isolated lightning strike is possible Thursday afternoon.
2.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Yes.  Likely.  Severe storms are possible Tuesday evening/Tuesday night.  I will be monitoring the late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri, as well.  All modes of severe weather will be possible if the atmosphere can recover from the morning showers and thunderstorms/clouds.  A strong storm is possible on Wednesday.  Monitor updates.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.  Storms will produce heavy rain.  Isolated flooding issues may develop.

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Friday through Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Low risk.  An isolated thunderstorm is possible during the heat of the day.  The best chance (even that is small) will be on Monday.
2. Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No

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Click here

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps:  Click Here

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ATTENTION.  A major app update will be released soon.  Watch for announcements.

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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I added a slight chance of lightning on Thursday.  Low confidence.

I removed the mention of thunderstorms Saturday.  Monitor updates since it will be warm and muggy.  Sometimes, isolated storms can pop up in this type of air-mass.  No organized storms are forecast.

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What changes might occur in the forecast?

How far east will the thunderstorm progress tonight?  Some storms could be severe over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Whether these storms can survive further east is still a question.  Monitor.

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May 21, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast:  Temperatures today will be highly dependent on the clouds and showers coming to an end this morning.  Temperatures, across portions of the region, are cooler than anticipated this morning.  A band of showers and weakening thunderstorms will push into the area Tuesday morning.  A few spotty showers and storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, as well.  Increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon.   I will be monitoring a developing line of severe thunderstorms in western and central Missouri and Arkansas.  This line will push eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Some of these storms will be severe.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  83° to 86°     SE MO  80° to 84°     South IL  80° to 84°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  83° to 86°     West KY  86° to 88°    NW TN  86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast wind at 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty winds in the afternoon.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL   40%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  40%    NW TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning hours, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Scattered elsewhere.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Some storms could be intense late in the day and more likely Tuesday night.  Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms.  This will most likely be over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Mainly towards late in the day into Tuesday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Go about your business but monitor afternoon updates.
UV Index: 8 to 9 Very high
Sunrise:   5:42 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to east.  Some storms will be severe. The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  We will need to monitor the rest of the area for severe storms, as well.  Even though the line may be weakening it could still produce some damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward.  Monitor updates through the day and night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  64° to 68°     SE MO 60° to 65°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  64° to 68°     West KY    66° to 70°    NW TN    66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 15 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  100%     Southeast MO  100%     IL  90%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY 80%    NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Becoming numerous with a line of storms moving in from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms.  The main concern will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Elsewhere, monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   8:02 PM
Moonrise: 10:57 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:58 AM

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May 22, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Warm.  Humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  82° to 84°     SE MO  82° to 84°     South IL  80° to 84°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  80° to 84°     West KY  80° to 84°    NW TN  84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty wind at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  40% to 50%     Southeast MO  40% to 50%     IL   40% to 50%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50%     Western KY  40% to 50%    NW TN  40% to 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index:  8 High
Sunrise:   5:41 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog.  Mild for May.  Humid.  An evening thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  66° to 70°     SE MO 66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 70°     West KY    66° to 70°    NW TN    68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     Southeast MO  20%     IL  20%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%    NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None for most.  I will monitor northern portions of southern Illinois for a storm or two.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor lower visibility if fog forms.  A slight chance of lightning and wet roadways near Mt Vernon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   8:03 PM
Moonrise: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  8:50 AM

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May 23, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Quite warm.  Humid.  A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  86° to 90°     SE MO  86° to 90°     South IL  85° to 90°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  85° to 90°     West KY  78° to 82°    NW TN  86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     Southeast MO  20%     IL   20%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%    NW TN  20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roads and isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check afternoon radars.
UV Index:  9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise:   5:40 AM
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Thursday night Forecast:  A few evening clouds with an isolated evening thunderstorm.  Patchy fog.  Mild.  Humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  66° to 70°     SE MO 66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 70°     West KY    66° to 70°    NW TN    68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  20%     Southeast MO  20%     IL  20%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%    NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor lower visibility if fog forms.  Isolated wet roads and isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check evening radars
Sunset:   8:04 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  9:44 AM

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Friday: High confidence.  Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Warm and muggy.   High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.  Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.   South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
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Saturday:  High confidence.  Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Warm and muggy.  High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.  Low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.   South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.
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Sunday:  Medium confidence.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.  Low temperatures in the upper 60s.  South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.

Monday:  Medium confidence.  Mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated storm is possible.  High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.  Low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70.  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

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Wind forecast

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Click images to enlarge them

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Missouri

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Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday:  Morning storms should be sub-severe.  Thunderstorms will push into the region later this evening and tonight.  The main concern will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Elsewhere, monitor updates.   Some storms could be intense with hail, high winds, and tornadoes.

Wednesday:  A few storms will linger into Wednesday.  If storms do occur then a few could be strong.

Thursday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.  Small chance of lightning.

Friday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

Saturday: Severe storms are not anticipated.

Sunday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

Monday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.  Isolated lightning.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number.  Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.  One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.  Light green is not assigned a number.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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For now, I have Friday through Monday as mostly dry.  There is always a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the heat of the day.  For the vast majority of the region, we should remain dry.

I am monitoring the model guidance concerning a boundary that may fluctuate near our region (see the GFS model animation below).  Most likely a tad to the north, but close enough that we need to monitor it.

That boundary will be the focus of showers and storms.  If the boundary drifts southward then our rain chances will increase.

I will be monitoring this portion of the forecast.

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.