Storms over the coming days could be intense. A few storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels.
Monitor radars if you have concerns.
We are going to remain in a summer type pattern through the week. It will be impossible to tell you that your county will receive a thunderstorm. Scattered thunderstorms will be a daily concern. Storms that form could be intense with frequent lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.
What does a 20% or 30% chance of thunderstorms mean?
It means there will likely be showers and thunderstorms on radar but not everyone will receive rain. If you have lived in this region then you know the pattern.
May 21, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms again possible. Summer type pattern with spotty storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 82 to 85 KY ~ 82 to 85 TN ~ 82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Strong winds near storms. Nickel size hail in the most intense storms. Isolated flash flood risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7 – high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:14 AM
May 22, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A few thunderstorms possible. Summer type pattern.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing. An isolated evening thunderstorm. A chance of patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Light and variable winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most areas will have no impacts. Perhaps some fog. Evening wet roadways and lightning possible in a few spots.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 1:09 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:56 AM
May 23, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm. Humid. Only a 10% chance of a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog. Only a 10% chance of a thunderstorm. Again, typical summer pattern. Most areas will remain dry
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 2:14 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:32 AM
May 24, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Only a 10% chance of a thunderstorm. Again, typical summer pattern. Most areas will remain dry
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: East and northeast 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of fog. Only a 10% chance of a thunderstorm. Again, typical summer pattern. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southeast and east at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 3:17 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:06 AM
May 25, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Again, typical summer pattern. Most areas will remain dry
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated storms. Many areas will again remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:19 PM
Moonrise: 1:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:38 AM
May 26, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 5:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:10 AM
May 27, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – High
Sunrise: 5:38AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:19 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:42AM
RAIN TOTALS
It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour. This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.
It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county. Typical, for our region. Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Monday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, high winds, heavy rain, and even hail.
The overall severe weather risk appears to be small.
Monitor updates.
Tuesday through Friday: Typical summer type pattern. Heating of the day isolated thunderstorms. Hit and miss. A few intense storms are possible.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
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Weather Headlines
- A week of summer weather ahead of us. Warm. Humid.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this week.
- Storms that form could be intense, Many will remain dry Tuesday into Friday.
- I am monitoring a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. It could bring additional moisture into the United States.
Short and sweet today.
We had a busy weather weekend. Several reports of large hail and damaging wind were received. No reports of tornadoes, thankfully.
This is a typical summer pattern. Daily highs will be in the 80’s. Today will have more clouds than Tuesday into Friday. These clouds will knock a few degrees off the high temperature. Expect mostly 80 to 85 degree readings. If the sun comes out a bit longer then some areas could move slightly above 85.
Shower and thunderstorm activity may peak today. Tuesday into Friday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances.
Any small disturbance would cause an increase in thunderstorm activity. That would be more of a now-cast or 12 to 24 hour forecast. Occasionally, weak disturbances move through a pattern like this.
Other than that, there is a disturbance to monitor in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. At this time, it is forecast to move off to our east and southeast. Some guidance shifts it further west. I will keep an eye on it. The main concern would be enhanced rainfall.
Lightning Safety
Lightning is concern for outdoor events over the coming days. If thunderstorms threaten then temporarily move inside until the storm passes.
Over the coming days, high dew points will make it feel humid and sticky. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere. Dew points in the mid to upper 60’s are sticky.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 643
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Meteorologist at National Severe Storms Laboratory and a visiting Professor of Atmospheric Science at Desert Research Institute and the University of Nevada-Reno. He is the author of the recent AMS Book: Verner Soumi: The Life and Work of the Founder of Satellite Meteorology. He joins us tonight from his daughter’s home in Sacramento. Please welcome Dr. John Lewis to WeatherBrains.
Throughout his career, Dr. Lewis has conducted research that has combined weather analysis with numerical weather prediction. His professional experience has been divided between work in government labs including operational prediction centers and academia. In the past decade, he has led a national research project focused on the weather over the Gulf of Mexico, Project GUFMEX, explored the use of adjoint methods to study model sensitivity, and contributed to the history of science. In 1998, the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA assigned Dr. Lewis to Desert Research Institute on a long-term duty assignment. This assignment was made in connection with a 5-year plan to improve weather forecasting in the Western United States. Central to this effort is the use of adjoint models to clarify the relative importance of the various meteorological fields used to initialize deterministic prediction models.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 23 at Stanley, ID, Crested Butte, CO, & Gothic, CO
- Non-tropical low off the west coast of Florida
- Severe weather Tuesday over Mid-Atlantic states
- Serious drought from AZ to West TX
- Fairly warm across the continental US
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourae subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
