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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday – Morning clouds and then a mix of sun and clouds. Cool with morning temperatures in the 40’s giving way to 60’s during the afternoon. WELL below normal temperatures. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly cloudy and cool. Temperatures starting out in the 40’s! Nothing like 40’s in May. Northerly winds at 10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and cool. Temperatures only in the 60’s with light northerly winds at 10 mph.
Thursday night – Mostly clear and chilly for May. Some patchy fog possible. Lows in the 40’s with North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph. WELL below normal temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Friday – Any morning fog will mix out. Then mostly sunny, but some increase in clouds possible towards late afternoon. A nice spring day! Camping weather with a fire. It will be on the cool side. Temperatures only in the upper 60’s to lower/mid 70’s over southern counties. Variable winds as a boundary will be near the region. Winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Friday night – A nice night for camping. Cool temperatures. Campfire might be needed. A few clouds. Lows in the 50’s with variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Saturday – A nice spring day. Great for camping. Partly sunny. It will be a bit warmer. Highs in the 70’s with easterly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Saturday night – Increasing clouds through the night. Milder and a bit more humid. Small chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm over western parts of southeast Missouri and northwest Illinois. 30% chance. Lows will be in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms possible. A 40%-60% chance. Quite a few clouds around. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Gusty southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some storms in the region. Have a plan B
Sunday night and Monday – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Gusty winds from the south at 10-25 mph. Probability of precipitation will range from 40% on Sunday night to 60% on Monday. Lower than normal confidence on the % chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some storms in the region. Have a plan B
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday we will dry out with cooler temperatures.
2. Pick days of the week will be Friday and Saturday. Enjoy. Below normal temperatures.
3. What about the holiday weekend? Rain and storm chances return.
Well, we had another round of rain on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Suddenly we are wishing the rain might slack off a bit. It is that time of the year. Typically May and June are wet. That has been the case over the past few weeks.
The crop moisture index is painting green over some of our counties. I suspect after this weekends rainfall that more of our region will find itself on the wet side of the chart.
Here is the updated rainfall totals that have been reported over the last 14 days. LOT of rain for parts of the region has already fallen with more to come.
Again, this is what has already fallen through Wednesday morning. Image is from weatherbell.com
Thursday will dry out. No weather concerns other than cool temperatures. Is that a concern? Probably not! Morning lows will start out in the 40’s for many locations. Friday morning will be in the 40’s, as well. Cool weather for May.
Typically, of course, we would find ourselves warming up during the late part of May. The sun angle is growing higher. But, the next few days won’t be all that warm.
Friday and Saturday are the pick days of the week. There is some debate about a few thunderstorms moving in by late Saturday night. For now, I will leave Friday and Saturday dry. Unfortunately rain and storm chances increase by Sunday and Monday. See the extended part of the forecast for details.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast
Friday’s high temperature forecast
Saturday’s high temperature forecast
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No concerns for Thursday through Saturday! Cooler than normal temperatures.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Thursday and Friday
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder likely. Monitor updates
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder likely. Monitor updates.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Another rainfall event is likely Sunday into Tuesday. Once again some places will pick up 1-3″ of rain and other spots will receive less than 0.50″. Same pattern we have been in for over a month now. Tough call on rainfall totals.
For now, it appears the entire region will pick up around 0.50″ of rain. But, much higher totals WILL occur with this event. Same as the last two events.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Holiday weekend. Some rain and storms possible Sunday and Monday
2. Rainfall totals on Sunday into Monday…locally heavy rain
3. Unsettled into June
Well, I know you would LOVE to have ONE dry weekend. But, I do not have good news on that front. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase quite a bit on Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is a concern. The last few weeks have brought the exact same setup.
Rainfall amounts will vary. Some will pick up more than 1″ of rain. Locally much higher. Again, same as the last few weeks.
The real question, that is left on the table, will be timing and coverage. What time will the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms occur. That is going to have to be worked out. Keep in mind that I have to time each disturbance exactly. I also have to take into account any outflow boundaries left over from the previous nights activity. That is tricky to do this far out.
If you have plans on Sunday or Monday then have a plan B. Same as the last few weeks. It probably will not rain all of the time, but expect precipitation on radar from Sunday into Monday night/Tuesday.
Winds will be gusty on Sunday and Monday. Expect gusts above 20 mph on area rivers and lakes.
Here is the 500 mb map and the 200 mb map. This shows you the winds aloft. See how they are coming from the southwest? That is a moist flow for our region. That means precipitation chances will be increasing over the weekend.
Pick outdoor event days will be Friday and Saturday. Enjoy those two days!
500 mb jet stream map from Wright-weather.com
200 mb jet stream map. See how the winds are coming up from the southwest? Moist flow returning. Arrows indicate the direction the wind is flowing from and towards. Arrows are flowing into our region from the southwest.
PWAT (moisture values) will increase quite a bit from Friday into the weekend. Let’s look at the PWAT maps. PWAT is what meteorologists look at to determine how much moisture is in the atmospheric column. It extends well upwards into the atmosphere.
Let’s compare Friday…see how low the numbers are? Dry air mass.
By Saturday evening the moisture is increasing to our west. See the wave of higher colors/numbers?
By Sunday evening the PWAT values have increased dramatically. Moisture streaming back into the region.
Gusty winds on Monday. Check out the GFS wind gust map. Expect gusts above 20 mph in the region. Perhaps above 30 mph. Still a few days to monitor. Boaters might want to be aware of this.
Sunday high temperatures will be a bit warmer than recent days
And Monday temperatures
Let’s pull ahead through the end of next week. The Canadian model between now and then is very wet. The wet and unsettled pattern will continue into the middle of June.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
