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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before midnight. Increasing to 40%-50% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage possible overnight
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday – Mostly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous. Especially for the southern half of the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Some lingering showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Winds variable in direction at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few clouds. Not too bad of a day. Breezy at times in open areas.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 14-18
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Milder.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds becoming south and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
Friday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
Monitor updates for next Thursday into Saturday. Storms possible.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Calm weather on Thursday. Milder.
- Shower chances on Thursday night into Friday evening
- Much warmer weather is heading our way!
- Thunderstorm chances next Tuesday-Friday
Well, temperatures remained below normal on Wednesday. Mostly in the 60s across the region. Not the best weather for the middle of May. I do have great news for you. Much warmer weather is showing up in the charts. The warm up will begin this weekend. Think of the weekend as the pre-warm up game! Temperatures should then pop into the upper 70s and lower 80s next week. Another collective cheer?
A storm system will approach our region on Thursday night into Friday evening. Showers are possible with this system. The models continue to shift further and further south and east with the event. It appears parts of the area may not receive any rain. Most likely that would be our northern counties. The best chance for rain will be over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Some debate as to how much rain will fall.
Either way, the system pulls away from the region on Friday evening. Thus, Saturday and Sunday should be dry. Warmer, as well. Expect 70s on Saturday and Sunday.
Right now it appears that 0.10″-0.30″ of rain will be possible over our southern and southeastern counties. Just not sure how far this precipitation will nudge north and west.
This is what the WRF guidance is showing for rainfall totals.
Not much, at all.
GFS (normally this is the worst of all the major models) is showing quite a bit more.
One thing they do have in common is the idea that south and east have more rain the north and west. That seems fairly likely.
We will have some thunderstorm chances next week, as well. The warmer weather normally does come at a price. I believe thunderstorm chances may ramp up as early as Tuesday. And, storm chances may continue for much of the new work week. Too soon to know if severe storms will be a concern. But, closely monitor updated forecasts.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night-Thursday: No severe storms
Thursday night: No severe weather.
Friday into Friday evening: No severe weather.
Saturday: No severe weather.
Saturday night into Sunday night: No severe weather
Monday: No severe weather.
Tuesday: Monitor updates
Wednesday: Monitor updates
Thursday: Monitor updates
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I removed thunderstorms from the forecast on Thursday night and Friday. Otherwise, very small adjustments in temperatures and wind direction.
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No major concerns in this update.
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No
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals will be highest over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. Rainfall totals of 0.10″-0.30″ will be possible in those areas. Far southern Illinois perhaps less than 0.20″. I will continue to monitor the track of the system. Additional adjustments are possible. The best chance for heavier rains would be near the Kentucky and Tennessee border and then southward.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
