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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
May 18, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 3 – low
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated storm possible. Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous this evening. Coverage diminishing overnight.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:59 PM
Moonrise: 8:46 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:32 PM
May 19, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: West and southwest at 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. Isolated thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 9:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM
May 20, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a bit of sun. Warm. Some cumulus clouds. A chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 – very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:27 AM
May 21, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms again possible. Summer typer pattern with spotty storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7 – high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:14 AM
May 22, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms possible. Summer type pattern.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 1:09 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:56 AM
RAIN TOTALS
There is no point in me posting the model rainfall forecast maps. The models don’t handle scattered thunderstorms all that great.
It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour. This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.
It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county. Typical, for our region. Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.
Generally, rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ are anticipated from now through Sunday night. Other areas, under slow moving thunderstorms, could easily pick up an inch or two+ of rain. Again, typical summer pattern.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday through Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and even small hail.
There will be a low risk of severe weather. It is possible that a few thunderstorms could reach severe levels. Any actual reports of severe weather would be isolated.
At this time, widespread severe weather appears unlikely. As always, monitor updates.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- Welcome to a summer-like weather pattern
- High UV index Saturday and Sunday
- Shower and thunderstorm chances well into next week
- It won’t rain all the time. Scattered on and off precipitation chances
- Many areas Saturday and Sunday will remain dry. A few will pick up a thunderstorm
Good day, everyone.
We have definitely entered an unsettled weather pattern.
Today’s weather map features an upper-level storm system that has been bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region over the past few days.
Here is the Hrrr model future-cast radar. Now, keep in mind, this is a model. There is no way it will be exactly right. It captures the general idea. We will have quite a bit of coverage today.
Timestamp upper left.
We had an increase in rain coverage Thursday. Some areas received more than two inches of rain. I received one report of 2.25″ of rain in 35 minutes. That was in McCracken County. Meanwhile just a mile or two away they had barely received enough rain to wet the ground.
Renee Jenkins Shaw took this photograph of a shelf cloud and scud clouds. This is near Mayfield, Kentucky, as a thunderstorm rolled through.
This is a typical July or August pattern.
Temperatures today will be held down by the clouds and rain. Highs will only reach into the 75 to 80-degree range. Perhaps a few spots warmer. Today will be our best chance of rain when compared to Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Locally heavy rain could temporarily flood low lying areas. This is the type of pattern where you could have brief flash flooding. Use care if that occurs. Rainfall totals of one to two inches per hour are not unusual in this type of pattern.
The severe weather risk remains low. Not a zero risk, but low. The last few days we have received a couple of reports of hail and strong winds. The main issue, however, has been the frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours.
It is a bit early for this type of weather pattern.
Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will rise into the 85 to 90-degree range. Nearing hot. High dew points will make it feel humid and sticky. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere. Dew points in the mid to upper 60’s are sticky.
Friday 1 PM dew point map
Saturday dew point map
Sunday dew point map
I would not cancel any outdoor plans Saturday or Sunday. I would check radars from time to time. A few storms can’t be ruled out. Many areas will remain dry.
Looking ahead to next week, we see a similar weather pattern as this one. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. Warm and humid.
It appears summer has arrived early. This, after one of the colder April’s on record. Go figure! Are we surprised? It seems we are in a rubber band pattern. We swing from one extreme to the next.
There are many summer forecasts that are painting above normal temperatures.
I hope you have a wonderful weekend. Keep the sunscreen handy.
WeatherBrains Episode 643
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Meteorologist at National Severe Storms Laboratory and a visiting Professor of Atmospheric Science at Desert Research Institute and the University of Nevada-Reno. He is the author of the recent AMS Book: Verner Soumi: The Life and Work of the Founder of Satellite Meteorology. He joins us tonight from his daughter’s home in Sacramento. Please welcome Dr. John Lewis to WeatherBrains.
Throughout his career, Dr. Lewis has conducted research that has combined weather analysis with numerical weather prediction. His professional experience has been divided between work in government labs including operational prediction centers and academia. In the past decade, he has led a national research project focused on the weather over the Gulf of Mexico, Project GUFMEX, explored the use of adjoint methods to study model sensitivity, and contributed to the history of science. In 1998, the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA assigned Dr. Lewis to Desert Research Institute on a long-term duty assignment. This assignment was made in connection with a 5-year plan to improve weather forecasting in the Western United States. Central to this effort is the use of adjoint models to clarify the relative importance of the various meteorological fields used to initialize deterministic prediction models.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 23 at Stanley, ID, Crested Butte, CO, & Gothic, CO
- Non-tropical low off the west coast of Florida
- Severe weather Tuesday over Mid-Atlantic states
- Serious drought from AZ to West TX
- Fairly warm across the continental US
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
