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An unsettled weather pattern is developing. On and off scattered summer like showers and thunderstorms are going to be in the forecast daily. It won’t rain all day. There will be showers and storms on radar from time to time. I am sure there will be periods of greater coverage.
May 17, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 4 – moderate
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northerly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 7:47 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:32 PM
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 3 – low
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated storm possible. Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous this evening. Coverage diminishing overnight.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:59 PM
Moonrise: 8:46 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:32 PM
May 19, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: West and southwest at 6 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. Isolated thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 9:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM
May 20, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a bit of sun. Warm. Some cumulus clouds. A chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 – very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:27 AM
May 21, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms again possible. Summer typer pattern with spotty storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7 – high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:14 AM
May 22, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms possible. Summer type pattern.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8 – Very high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but isolated reports of hail or strong winds are always possible with summer type thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 1:09 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:56 AM
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday through Sunday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and even small hail.
There will be a low risk of severe weather. I will need to monitor each day and how much instability builds. It is possible that a few thunderstorms could reach severe levels.
At this time, widespread severe weather appears unlikely. As always, monitor updates.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Weather Headlines
- Warm the next 48 hours with hot conditions Saturday and Sunday
- Summer-like pattern
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Many areas will remain dry. Some will pick up heavy rain. Typical for this time of the year.
Good day, everyone
I hope you have been able to enjoy the warm weather. It has, at times, even been hot. I reserve the word hot for temperatures above 90 degrees. We certainly hit those readings over the last few days.
Temperatures today and Friday will be a bit lower. Clouds and some shower and thunderstorm activity will help keep temperatures below the 90 degree mark.
As a matter of fact, highs on Friday may only reach into the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Not too bad. It will remain a bit humid/sticky with dew points in the 60’s.
We are going to continue to have on and off showers and thunderstorms.
Over the past week, some areas received little or no rain. Other areas have received more than two inches.
This is a feast or famine type weather pattern. That is what I call it. Your neighbor can receive heavy rain and you receive sprinkles.
We will see an uptick in showers and storms today through Friday and then lower chances Saturday and Sunday. Another uptick possible Sunday night into Monday night.
I would not cancel any plans. I would, however, monitor forecast updates and radars. Perhaps, more importantly, would be the radars.
Keep in mind, these summer type storms can literally form overhead. If that is the case, you may see the storm clouds building before the rain actually hits the ground.
The biggest concern over the coming days will be cloud to ground lightning. Thunderstorms this week have been prolific lightning producers.
Another concern will be isolated reports of nickel size hail and high winds. Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated. An isolated severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. We have seen a few warnings over the last few days.
There was a report of a landspout in southeast Missouri yesterday afternoon. A landspout is a cousin of a tornado. They typically do not cause damage. The one yesterday did produce some tree damage and blew some tin roofing off a shed.
These landspouts often happen in southeast Missouri. They rarely receive a tornado warning. They are a bit of an oddity in the weather world.
Temperatures over the weekend will return to the upper 80’s and perhaps some 90’s. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday. Again, I would not cancel anything. Monitor the radars and have a plan B in case some storms form.
WeatherBrains Episode 643
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Meteorologist at National Severe Storms Laboratory and a visiting Professor of Atmospheric Science at Desert Research Institute and the University of Nevada-Reno. He is the author of the recent AMS Book: Verner Soumi: The Life and Work of the Founder of Satellite Meteorology. He joins us tonight from his daughter’s home in Sacramento. Please welcome Dr. John Lewis to WeatherBrains.
Throughout his career Dr. Lewis has conducted research that has combined weather analysis with numerical weather prediction. His professional experience has been divided between work in government labs including operational prediction centers and academia. In the past decade he has led a national research project focused on the weather over the Gulf of Mexico, Project GUFMEX, explored the use of adjoint methods to study model sensitivity, and contributed to the history of science. In 1998, the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA assigned Dr. Lewis to Desert Research Institute on a long-term duty assignment. This assignment was made in connection with a 5-year plan to improve weather forecasting in the Western United States. Central to this effort is the use of adjoint models to clarify the relative importance of the various meteorological fields used to initialize deterministic prediction models.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and 23 at Stanley, ID, Crested Butte, CO, & Gothic, CO
- Non-tropical low off the west coast of Florida
- Severe weather Tuesday over Mid-Atlantic states
- Serious drought from AZ to West TX
- Fairly warm across the continental US
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
