WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
May 15, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Very warm. Humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts around storms
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest winds becoming more variable as a boundary moves through the region. Winds may turn out of the northwest and north, at times. Speeds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 7:56 PM
Moonrise: 6:11 AM New
Moonset: 8:16 PM
May 16, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 85 IL ~ 82 to 85 KY ~ 82 to 85 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14. Winds may be variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 5 – Medium to high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 65 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast winds and variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 7:57 PM
Moonrise: 6:56 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:25 PM
May 17, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 85 IL ~ 82 to 85 KY ~ 82 to 85 TN ~ 82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4 – moderate
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 65 IL ~ 62 to 65 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 7:47 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:32 PM
May 18, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 7:59 PM
Moonrise: 8:46 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:32 PM
May 19, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW adjustments are likely
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. Isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW adjustments are likely
Is severe weather expected? At this time, the risk appears low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 9:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM
May 20, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW adjustments are likely
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW adjustments are likely
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:27 AM
May 21, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 7 – high
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:14 AM
RAIN TOTALS
On and off rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It will not rain all the time. There will be dry periods. The weather will, however, be unsettled.
It is important to remember, late spring and summer thunderstorms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Rain rates can occasionally exceed 1.5 to 2″ per hour. This can cause brief periods of flash flooding or ponding of water.
It is next to impossible to forecast which county will receive more rain than a neighboring county. Typical, for our region. Your neighbor can pick up a heavy thunderstorm and you end up with just a few drops.
Here are the current rainfall forecast numbers from the WPC and model guidance.
Again, thunderstorms can easily double or triple these numbers.
WPC/NOAA
NAM model guidance
GFS model guidance
GEM model guidance
EC model guidance
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Sunday: Thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Monday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and even small hail.
There will be a low risk of severe weather. I will need to monitor each day and how much instability builds. It is possible that a few thunderstorms could reach severe levels.
At this time, widespread severe weather appears unlikely. As always, monitor updates.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- Warm and humid conditions.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Summer type pattern.
Heavy thunderstorms rolled through the region last night. Some places received two inches of rain. Many areas received nothing at all. Welcome to our summer shower and thunderstorm pattern. I call it feast or famine weather.
This is the type of pattern that is a bit of a headache for forecasters. Why? The main reason is because it is meteorologically impossible to tell you which counties will or won’t receive thunderstorms. They can be rather random and occasionally more organized.
I have 30% to 40% thunderstorm chances into early next week. Afternoon and evening hours will be peak heating. That is normally when storms form. They can last well into the overnight hours (under the right conditions).
I would not cancel plans. I would monitor updates and radars. That is my best advice.
It will remain warm into next week! That is the good news. It will be sticky from time to time (esp when the winds are southerly). Highs will mostly be in the 80’s through the period. Lows in the 60’s.
Here is the Hrrr model guidance. Timestamp upper left.
Here is the GFS future cast radar. Timestamp upper left.
Again, models will NOT handle this type of pattern all that well. Take the general idea that there will be on and off precipitation chances. Occasionally, there will be more precipitation on radar than other times.
NAM future-cast radar
WeatherBrains Episode 642
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Our guest for this episode of WeatherBrains is Rudy Simoneaux. Rudy is the engineering manager of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, along with being the project manager of the LSU Center for River Studies. He is also the president-elect of the Louisiana Section of the American Society of Civil Engineers.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 108 at Death Valley, CA, and 20 at Bodie State Park, CA
- SPC Day 3 Slight Risk in Central US
- Hot from SW AZ to Texas
- Oklahoma had their first tornado of 2018 last week
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Our email bag officer is handling the incoming messages from our listeners. And we love to get them.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
