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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range
Winds: North and northwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-68 degree range.
Winds: Northwest and north winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% in the late afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none. Showers and storms should hold off until Sunday night.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered. Mainly late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roads
Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Monday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday Night – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated (but monitor for changes)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?
Thursday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-76 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (but monitor for changes)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Chilly night
- Rain chances early in the week and perhaps late in the week
A fairly calm forecast for the next 24 hours. Something we can all be thankful for. Especially true in May. I know I am glad for the calmer days.
We will have a chilly start to your Sunday. Expect widespread lower 40s. And, some upper 30s in those favored cold spots. Some data shows middle to upper 30s. But, upper 30s to lower 40s will probably be the end result. Either way, chilly for the Month of May.
Check out these temperature anomaly maps. How much above or below normal are temperatures? Well, I am glad you asked! Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 54 degrees.
Check out the anomalies!
Images are from weatherbell. com and you can click on the image for a larger view.
This first map was for Saturday around 1 pm. Scale is on the right side of the image.
This next image is for Sunday morning
This next image is for Monday afternoon. Definitely below normal temperatures for this time of the year.
Let’s look at that on some more forecast maps. These are the high temperature anomaly maps for Sunday through Wednesday.
These are not temperatures, of course. The numbers represent how many degrees below normal we are expected to be on the thermometer.
This first map is for Sunday.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Looking ahead
Our next weather system is already on the weather map. Expect an increase in clouds late in the day on Sunday. Then mostly cloudy as we push into Monday morning. Showers will spread back into the area on Sunday night (late) and Monday. Rain showers will stick around through Tuesday. Ending Tuesday night. Rainfall totals are not forecast to be all that substantial. Perhaps another 0.45″-0.85″.
Severe weather is not anticipated Sunday through Wednesday. Thank goodness.
I am watching another weather system for Friday and Saturday. Still several days to monitor. Too early to know if severe weather is a concern. Perhaps showers and storms by Friday or Friday night. Again, we have several days to monitor.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night: No severe weather threats.
Severe weather is not anticipated Sunday through Thursday.
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Updated temperatures. Also updated the rain probabilities. Otherwise, no major changes.
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No concerns!
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No
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
