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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Another complicated forecast as far as timing of precipitation at any given spot. I really dislike forecast this type of pattern because someone will end up on the receiving end of a lot of rain. Other areas will pick up basically nothing. Same as last week and last weekend. Here we go again.
Wednesday Night – A few clouds and chilly. Lows in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 5-15 mph. Gusty winds this evening.
Thursday – Becoming cloudy with a chance for a shower. Mostly light. Small chance for thunder. The best chances for precipitation might remain over southeast Missouri into northwest parts of southern Illinois. High sin the 70’s with southeast winds at 10 mph. Chances for rain will be in the 30%-40% range…mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some of the data indicates the eastern half of the region may miss out entirely on rain chances. Keep this in mind. I am not overly confident on Thursday’s rain chances and where to play the % numbers. We will see how it goes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? You will need to monitor radars as some shower are possible on Thursday. Believe the best chances will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Increasing clouds. A bit warmer than recent days. Morning temperatures mostly in the 50’s.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy with a chance for a shower. Afternoon temperatures mostly in the 70’s with southeast winds at 10 mph.
Thursday night – Some clearing with a chance for a shower late. Lows mostly in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. Southeast winds at 10 mph. Chances for precipitation will be in the 10%-20% range.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few showers possible…especially Thursday evening.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Warmer and more humid. Highs mostly in the 80’s with southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chances for precipitation at any given spot will be 30%-40% at any given spot.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars…some chance for rain.
Friday night – Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a thunderstorm. More humid and milder. Lows in the 60’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chances for precipitation at any given spot will be from 40%-60%. Increasing perhaps late at night towards the upper end of those numbers. Monitor updates on rain chances for Friday night…lower than normal confidence on timing and coverage.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A chance for some precipitation in the area.
Saturday – Partly to mostly cloudy and warmer…more humid. A chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chances for precipitation at any given spot will be 40%-60%.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Saturday night and Sunday – A continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible in storms that develop. Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 and highs in the 80’s. Southerly winds at 5-15 mph. Chances for precipitation will be 40% on Saturday night and 40%-60% on Sunday afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain and thunderstorm chances once again enter the picture. But, who will end up with lots of rain and who will end up with very little?
2. Temperatures will be on the rise…along with dew points.
3. Severe weather chances?
The forecast is fairly straight forward when it comes to the overall pattern. But, the details are going to be the problem. Same as last weekend. Will it or won’t it rain on your picnic or outdoor event. The best advice for Friday into Sunday is going to be your plan B. Again, same as last week. Plan B saved the day for some of you.
Perhaps the best chance for precipitation will be on Saturday and Monday. But that does not mean you won’t have rain on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. There will be showers and some thunderstorms on radar each one of those days.
Showers on Thursday should be fairly light. There is a small chance for an isolated rumble of thunder on Thursday. The signals for storms are minimal, at best, for Thursday.
Again, perhaps the best chances on Thursday will be the western half vs eastern half of my forecast area.
Let’s look at some of the maps for Thursday and Friday showing the lift in the region. These two maps are from wright-weather.com and are basically showing you where lift is located and high humidity levels in the atmosphere. In other words…where rain might be falling. The darker hatched area is the greatest lift and humidity. I drew a yellow arrow for an illustration.
On Thursday afternoon there is lift over our region, but the better lift is well to our north. That does raise some question as to just how much rain might fall in the area. Light rain is the forecast. There is a lot of dry air aloft, as well. This also puts a hamper on rainfall totals.
Friday brings more of the same…some lift, but not very impressive as forecasting goes.
On the positive side…I can’t find a strong signal for severe thunderstorms. Very very unusual for the Month of May. We have been so fortunate. We have had a couple of events that produce strong to severe storms. Let’s hope the widespread severe weather continues to avoid our region.
I will keep an eye on Monday. A cold front moves through the area.
Temperatures over the coming days will be in the 70’s and 80’s. Clouds will help keep temperatures mild at night.
Let’s look at some rainfall maps from the last 10 days. Nationally and locally. These images are from weatherbell.com Click images for a larger view
Zoomed in regionally. It is amazing the differences in rainfall locally.
This pattern could very well continue. Heaviest rains over the western half of the region vs eastern. We will see how it goes. This type of pattern can be very difficult to forecast. If a front stalls out then heavy rain will fall. But, where that front stalls out is the question. A few counties can make all the difference. It does appear we will have several chances for heavy rainfall between now and the end of the month.
See the extended forecast for more details
Our latest soil moisture percentile tells you the story of our region. Wet over the western half of the region and dry over the eastern half.
And one last map showing the 1-6 inches of rain that fell over the last seven days…mainly our western counties.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Some recent photo images from Wunderground…see more here
Towering cumulus clouds. Thunderstorms.
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Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase over the coming days. Lightning will be the main concern for outdoor events. Rain, of course.
The risk for thunder is lower on Thursday. The chances increase from Friday onward.
A few spots might need an umbrella. Rain and thunderstorm chances will be with us from Thursday right on through the weekend. Just about the same pattern as last week and weekend. Some places had a lot of rain and some missed out. I suspect we are going to see a repeat of that pattern.
Right now the severe weather risks appear low. I will monitor each time frame as we move forward.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card for Thursday into Thursday night will be who will end up with rain. Scattered precipitation chances by Thursday afternoon and night. Not everyone will pick up precipitation.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is near ZERO on Thursday and ONE on FRIDAY.
Thursday’s Severe Weather Outlook
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For Friday…threat level is ONE.
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Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Small chance for thunder
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Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like organized severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates. Keep in mind that when you have a thunderstorm, during this time of the year, that you can always have a very isolated report of high winds, a down burst, and so on.
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Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates. Keep in mind that when you have a thunderstorm, during this time of the year, that you can always have a very isolated report of high winds, a down burst, and so on.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates. Keep in mind that when you have a thunderstorm, during this time of the year, that you can always have a very isolated report of high winds, a down burst, and so on.
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Monday – Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Once again, same as last week, the rain amounts are going to vary widely over our region. Slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. Some of you picked up 1-6 inches of rain last week and weekend. Some of you picked up nothing!
Rainfall totals from Thursday into Monday night will likely be in the 0.40″-0.80″ range. But, of course as mentioned above this won’t be correct for some of you. Locally heavy totals will occur in our region. Some of you will pick up several inches of rain. Again, I really dislike this type of forecast pattern because it is hard to give you a straight answer for any given location. Same as last weekend.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Weekend rain chances? Again?
2. What are the thunderstorm risks for the next 5 days?
3. Cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday behind a cold front.
4. More unsettled weather late next week. This seems like a broken record!
The long range forecast for the weekend into Monday is more of the same…unsettled weather. Daily chances for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Perhaps the best chance will be on Saturday and then along a cold front on Monday. This is very similar to what happened last weekend. Almost a repeat.
If you have weekend plans then I would suggest once again having a plan B. This is not one cold front sweeping through with rain chances. This is a humid air-mass with small disturbances through the flow. Timing rain or storm chances will be tricky, if not really impossible to nail down county by county. It will be more of a % forecast than anything else. I hate these type of forecasts. They are never easy. I can’t promise you rain and I can’t promise you it won’t rain on your event. Just the way spring and summer is. If it was one cold front then that would be easy.
Looking at Sunday night dew points. High dew points over our region. The Gulf of Mexico is wide open once again. Lot of moisture to work with in our region. If thunderstorms occur then they will produce heavy rain.
Notice how the dew points then drop off quickly behind the cold front on Monday night and Tuesday. By Wednesday morning low humidity and low dew points return to the region. It will feel cooler next Tuesday and Wednesday. Sound familiar? It should…this is a repeat of what just happened.
Rain and storm chances may again return around next Thursday and Friday. Repeat? Seems like it. It would be nice to have one dry beautiful weekend. I will keep an eye on it. Spring is like this…lot of fast moving systems.
Further down the road…some models are picking up on a larger system around May 23rd through 27th.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
