Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 11th through May 17th

Current risk:  None

Current confidence level: High.

Comments:  Tornadoes are not in the forecast.  

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphic below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No weather concerns today or tonight.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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High pressure will move from the Great Lakes to the East Coast today through Tuesday. This will bring dry weather and plenty of sunshine.

Winds from the north today will keep temperatures seasonable, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. On Tuesday, winds will turn southerly, and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today.

A weak cold front is expected to move through the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

There will be a 20–50% chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday evening and overnight. The best chance will be across southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, southeast Missouri, and parts of western Kentucky, mainly north of a line from Cape Girardeau to Paducah to Hopkinsville.  See the rain probability graphics below.

The highest rain chances will be across southwest Indiana and southern Illinois along and north of Interstate 64. Moisture will be limited, so rainfall amounts should be very light, generally just a few hundredths of an inch, and many places may only see a few sprinkles or stay dry.

Behind the front on Wednesday, temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal, but cooler air will slowly move in. It will be breezy with northwest winds during the afternoon, and lower humidity will make it feel a bit cooler.

Wednesday night will be much cooler with clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees, which is about 5 degrees below normal.

High pressure moving south into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys will keep dry and sunny weather from Wednesday through Thursday.

By Thursday night, the high pressure will shift east, and winds will turn southerly again, becoming stronger on Friday. This will start a warming trend from Friday through the weekend, along with gradually increasing humidity.

• Highs Friday: in the 80s
• Highs this weekend: in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

As for rain chances from Friday through the weekend, forecast models disagree on the timing of weak weather systems. For now, the forecast calls for occasional 20–35% chances of showers and thunderstorms, but the exact timing remains uncertain..

Rainfall total maps through next Monday.  Not much.   Thunderstorms can always enhance totals.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

There are a lot of days with low-end rain chances.   I will be monitoring trends to see if one or two of those days have a higher chance.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

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