Morning update
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
May 10, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: An increase in clouds. A 50% for thunderstorms after 10 pm for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A 30% for showers and storms over western Kentucky and western Tennessee (mostly after 2 am). A small chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms before 10 pm over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 28 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather risk for Wednesday night is small.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check the radars
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May 11, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40% to 50% for morning showers and storms. A 60% for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Lightning and heavy downpours, as well. Warm with above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL 76 to 84 KY 78 to 84 TN 78 to 84
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds will become northerly behind the front that will push through the area slowly from north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t completely rule out a few storms producing gusty winds and hail. Low tornado risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. A few storms could produce large hail and strong winds. The tornado risk is small.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%-50% in the morning and 70% in the afternoon IL ~ 40%-50% in the morning and then 70% in the afternoon KY ~ 30% in the morning and then 60% in the afternoon TN ~ 30% in the morning and then 50% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered during the morning. Increasing coverage during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B (in case it rains). I can’t rule out showers and storms in the morning, but perhaps better chances later in the afternoon.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds. The tornado risk is low.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest and then becoming north at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out a few reports of strong wind and even hail.
Is severe weather expected? Yes, there is a risk that a few storms could become severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Coverage may diminish from the north.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B. It might rain.
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May 12, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A good chance for morning showers. A thunderstorm possible. Cooler. A chance for showers during the afternoon, but ending from west to east as the day wears on. If you have outdoor activities on Friday then plan for some showers and hope for the best.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL 65 to 70 KY 65 to 70 TN 65 to 70
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous before 12 pm. Becoming scattered after 12 pm and eventually ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts. Some showers possible.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None other than perhaps fog
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 13, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 72 to 76 KY 72 to 76 TN 72 to 76
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Monitor fog chances during the morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 56 IL ~ 50 to 56 KY ~ 50 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Variable wind at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 14, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL 76 to 82 KY 76 to 82 TN 76 to 82
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 15, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 16, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL 80 to 85 KY 80 to 85 TN 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: A few showers and thunderstorms are possible before 10 pm over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Better chances, however, might arrive late tonight. Storms tonight are not anticipated to be severe in our local area. Lightning would be a concern.
Thursday and Thursday night: A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be with us on Thursday and especially Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low. Monitor updates in case watches and warnings are issued. I will be sending out text messages. You can sign up for those messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Friday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. There is a small risk for lightning on Friday.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
We still have rivers out of their banks across most of the region. Be sure and check out the latest lake and river stages. Here is the link to view those ~ River Stage Forecasts
Our next rain maker is already on the way. We will have increasing chances for showers and heavy thunderstorms as we move through Wednesday night and especially on Thursday afternoon and night. Some of the storms could be intense.
Wednesday evening and night:
Wednesday was another warm day across the region. Temperatures were well above normal and topped out in the lower to middle 80’s across much of the region. It does feel a bit like summer, especially with the dew points reaching into the 60’s. Lot of moisture in the lower atmosphere.
A front boundary will slowly slip into our region from the north on Wednesday night. This front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. The risk for showers and thunderstorms before 10 pm (Wednesday) is fairly low. We could have a few scattered showers/storms on radar. This would mostly be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Again, chances are that most of the area will remain dry.
Chances for showers and storms will increase late tonight. I am not anticipating any severe weather concerns tonight. Lightning is possible.
Thursday and Thursday night:
Thunderstorms should be most numerous on Thursday afternoon and evening. This is when the atmosphere will be the most unstable. CAPE values above 2000 and some wind shear. Lift index values of -5 or lower. Large hail may be a concern with sharp lapse rates possible. Lapse rates represent how fast the atmosphere cools from the surface upward.
There should be some morning showers and storms, as well. The bulk of the activity, however, will likely hold off until after 12 pm.
During the afternoon hours a band of heavy showers and storms is expected to form from west to east across southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and then into northern Kentucky.
With time, this band will slowly sag southward.
Widespread 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain is anticipated with this event. Areas that have training thunderstorms could easily double/triple those numbers. Keep that in mind. Training means storms repeatedly moving over the same areas. This can dramatically enhance rainfall totals.
There is the possibility that a row or two of counties could miss the bulk of the rain. That would be where tonight’s activity weakens and north of where tomorrow’s activity gains intensity. Keep that in mind, as well. That would most likely occur over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
The soil, in our local area, remains saturated. Heavy rain could quickly cause flash flooding. This is especially true for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Strong winds could also topple trees in areas that have abnormally wet soil conditions.
Showers and storms will remain with us into Thursday night.
Showers are anticipated on Friday morning. Perhaps some thunderstorms, but not anticipating severe weather on Friday.
Showers will end from west to east as the day wears on. If you have outdoor plans on Friday then plan on some showers.
Rain will end across the entire region by Friday evening and night. Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday night behind our departing storm system.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are forecast to be dry. Highs on Saturday will likely reach 68 to 72 degrees. Highs by Sunday could range from 75 to 80 degrees. We will be in the eighties on both Monday and Tuesday.
Another chance for storms by Tuesday night or Wednesday. We sure can’t find much dry time in this pattern. We need dry weather to last awhile.
Let’s look at a few maps.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Thursday. They have colored our region in a risk for a few storms approaching or becoming severe. Hail is the main concern. Strong winds is a second concern. Tornado risk is low.
They dark green represents a level one out of five risk. Low risk. The yellow represents a level two our five risk for severe weather. Severe weather is defined as quarter size hail or larger. 58 mph winds or higher, and/or tornadoes.
These next few images are the SPC WRF. This is the highest resolution model for the time period in question. You can see that it pops storms late Thursday afternoon over Missouri and Arkansas. Some of these would likely be severe.
4 PM future-cast Thursday radar
5 PM future-cast Thursday radar
Let’s take a look at the 3K NAM model guidance. This is a bit lower resolution data.
This is also the future-cast radar. What radar might look like. Keep in mind, this is a model. Model’s are for guidance and are not gospel. Don’t take specifics from these maps. Take the general idea of what might occur on Thursday.
Time stamp is above each image.
Peak chances for rain and storms will be Thursday afternoon and night.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
