Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 10, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Here comes the heat.

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Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

 

May 10, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Breezy.  Partly sunny.  Quite warm.  A few scattered showers or storms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 88      IL ~  84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~  84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to scattered
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and check radars.
Sunrise: 5:50  AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and mild.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Chances are a little higher over our northern counties.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65       IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65        TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:51 PM

 

May 11, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Quite warm.  Some cumulus clouds.  Only a 10% chance of an isolated storm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~  85 to 90       KY ~85 to 90        TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Small risk of a thunderstorm.
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph.  Higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? If thunderstorms form they could produce isolated hail and strong winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:49  AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72       IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72        TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~  5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Isolated storm risk.
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated risk of lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:52 PM

 

May 12, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Some afternoon cumulus clouds.  Very warm to hot.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures:  MO ~86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:48 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 70 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~  5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

 

May 13, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cumulus clouds in the afternoon.  Warm to hot conditions.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none to isolated.
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:48  AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds.  Warm.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds:  Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:53 PM

 

May 14, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Widely scattered thunderstorms possible.  Warm to hot.  Most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Widely scattered lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.  Most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:55 PM
Moonrise: 5:31 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 7:07 PM

 

May 15, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cumulus clouds in the afternoon.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8 – very high
Sunrise: 5:46 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 68       IL ~ 65 to 68       KY ~ 65 to 68        TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 7:56 PM
Moonrise: 6:11 AM New
Moonset: 8:16 PM

 

May 16, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Warm to perhaps hot.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~  86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 9 – very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 7:57 PM
Moonrise: 6:56 AM Waxing crescent
Moonset: 9:25 PM

 

RAIN TOTALS

Widespread rain is not anticipated.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could produce a quick 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain.  Keep in mind, summer type thunderstorms can produce heavy rain in small pockets.  Typical garden variety thunderstorms.

 

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Thursday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  If a thunderstorm forms then it could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and dime size hail.  The risk of thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon appears to be low.  Isolated.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

Weather Headlines

  • Warm, warm, and warm (almost hot)
  • Isolated thunderstorm chances
  • WeatherBrains updated (bottom of page)

 

The main topic, in the weather department, is going to be warm temperatures.  As a matter of fact, we will flirt with hot weather.  I reserve the word hot for 90 degrees and above.

Some of us will hit 90 degrees over the coming days.  Most will remain in the 85 to 90 degree range.  Well above our seasonal norms.

I suppose we have earned the warm weather.  It seemed as if winter would never let go.  Now, we jump right into summer.

There will be daily isolated thunderstorm chances.

We had some thunderstorms last night (as you know).  Most of the region remained dry.  A few spots had gully washers.  It is that time of the year.  Your neighbor can have an inch of rain and you end up with a few drops.

Thunderstorms can also produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail.

Organized severe weather is not in the daily forecast through the weekend.  That is the good news.

Again, keep in mind, isolated storms can be quite heavy during this time of the year.

Otherwise, we will have periodic gusty winds over the coming days.  Boaters use care.

I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the warm temperatures and the sunshine.  We will have occasional patchy clouds, as well.

 

 

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 642

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Our guest for this episode of WeatherBrains is Rudy Simoneaux. Rudy is the engineering manager of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, along with being the project manager of the LSU Center for River Studies. He is also the president-elect of the Louisiana Section of the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 108 at Death Valley, CA, and 20 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • SPC Day 3 Slight Risk in Central US
  • Hot from SW AZ to Texas
  • Oklahoma had their first tornado of 2018 last week
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is handling the incoming messages from our listeners. And we love to get them.

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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