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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Fairly active week of weather ahead of us. Monitor updated forecasts.
Quite a few on/off chances for rain and storms this week. Won’t rain all of the time. But, certainly periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday Night – Cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce damaging winds. Smaller risk for hail. Tornado risk isn’t zero. Greatest concern is over southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Locally severe thunderstorms are possible. Main concern would be damaging winds and hail. Isolated tornado risk.
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense. Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some strong storms are possible.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense early in the evening.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some risk for a few strong storms.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are possible in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Scattered storms could produce lightning, strong winds, hail, and heavy rain.
Wednesday Night – Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Any storms that do form could be intense.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. Closely monitor updated forecasts.
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning. Severe storms possible.
Thursday – Partly sunny. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Lower confidence on the forecast for the weekend
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
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Saturday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Isolated light shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: North/northwest at 5-10 with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?
Sunday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: West/northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected?
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-52 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected?
Monday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected?
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-52 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-52 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Thunderstorms over the coming days. Some possible intense.
- Cooler by the weekend
The main weather concern continues to be thunderstorm chances over the coming days. Let me try to break it down.
It will not rain all of the time. Plenty of dry periods mixed into the forecast.
Monday night: A disturbance advances into our region from the southwest and west. This system will likely spark widespread showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Instability levels are marginal for severe weather. Wind fields are strong enough to warrant at least the mention of severe weather. Especially true for southeast Missouri. There could be an enhanced threat area near the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Damaging winds will be the main concern. Although, the tornado threat is not zero.
Locally heavy rain is likely on Monday night. PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the atmosphere) is going to be high. Thus, some heavy rain is a good bet. Where thunderstorms are slow moving or train over the same area you could pick up a quick 0.50″-1.5″ of rain. Stronger storms can always produce locally heavier totals.
Precipitation should come to an end, for the most part, on Tuesday morning. Still, at least a chance for a few showers and storms scattered around the area during the morning hours. But, the bulk of the precipitation should push off to the northeast.
The atmosphere will recharge on Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPE values will top 2000 over our region. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere. CAPE is used to determine the potential for severe weather. One ingredient, at least.
Wind fields won’t be all that strong on Tuesday afternoon and night. But, perhaps sufficient for a few storms to become severe. Hail and high winds would be the main concern. Tornado risk is not zero. Monitor updates, as always.
There is some question as to thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon and night. Keep that in mind. Not a slam dunk forecast for everyone.
On Wednesday our instability may peak. CAPE values could top 3000 on Wednesday. But, it is questionable as to how much thunderstorm activity will form during the day. Perhaps a better chance after 4 pm into the overnight hours. IF storms form then they could become severe. Once again you will want to monitor updates on Wednesday.
Thunderstorm chances will decrease on Thursday through Sunday. But, we will have some weak disturbances and a cold front in the area. Thus, rain shower chances probably won’t be zero during this time period. See the details probabilities in the day by day forecast at the top of the page.
Latest data indicates we may have to deal with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Low confidence. Low confidence on the weekend forecast.
Rainfall totals will likely vary considerably over the coming days. Widespread 0.50″-1.00″ appears likely. Then, pockets of 1-2″ possible. And, higher totals are possible where thunderstorms train over the same area.
Here are some future-cast radar maps for the next 24-48 hours.
These images are from weatherbell. com
This first image is for Monday evening at 7 pm. Some storms over parts of the region. Storms will be pushing east and northeast.
This won’t be exact. It is simply guidance. The high resolution HRRR indicates a line of storms moving into the region between 7 pm and midnight.
This image is for 1 am on Tuesday morning. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
This image is for Tuesday morning at 7 am. You can see some scattered showers and storms still in the region.
This image is for Tuesday afternoon around 4 or 5 pm.
This last image is for Wednesday morning at 7 am.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A level THREE severe weather threat will be with us on Monday night through Wednesday night. There could be periods of time when the threat level will need to be raised.
Main idea to take from this forecast is monitor updates.
Monday night: Strong to potentially severe storms are possible. Monitor updates. Believe the greatest area of concern on Monday night will be the Missouri Bootheel. But, elsewhere we could have some intense storms, as well.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Strong to potentially severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday morning: Severe storms are not anticipated
Wednesday afternoon and night: Severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday: Severe storms are not anticipated
Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates
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..Updated rain chances. Also updated the weekend forecast.
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Several concerns for the coming days. Locally heavy rain is possible with thunderstorms on Monday night – Wednesday night.
Severe thunderstorms are certainly possible this week. Monitoring Monday night for some intense storms. Instability is in question on Monday night. But, wind fields will be sufficient for some stronger storms. Perhaps the greatest area of concern will be the Missouri Bootheel into northeast Arkansas.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will provide the opportunity for additional showers and thunderstorms. Again, locally heavy rain and severe storms are possible.
I am also concerned about Wednesday afternoon and night. Heavy rain possible. Intense storms are possible. Monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A long week of weather ahead of us. Several rounds of potentially heavy rain. Placement of features will be key to your rainfall totals. Remember, thunderstorms can produce locally higher totals. And, that will certainly be the case this week. I would not be a bit surprised if someone tops three inches of rain over the coming days. Possibly more.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
