We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
I am starting a blog update just for the flood event. Link.
The live feed is being updating, as well. View the live feed here
Sunday Night – Cloudy. Not as cold. A scattered shower possible, mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Small chance for a thunderstorm. Rising temperatures after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range. Temperatures will rise after midnight.
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Winds increasing after midnight to 8-16 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if a shower develops.
Monday – Windy. A morning shower possible. Mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 65-70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts to 40 mph. highest gusts over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to maybe scattered early in the morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible in a few spots. Gusty winds through the day.
Monday Night – Cloudy. A few showers possible. Breezy.
Temperatures: Low temperatures well above normal in the 54-58 degree range.
Winds: South at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Tuesday – Breezy. Mild. Some showers and some thunderstorms possible. Especially over our western counties in southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, thinking is we will remain mostly dry outside of a stray shower. Northern parts of southern Illinois may also see a shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures 68-74 degrees.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 12 pm. 40% after 12 pm. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps into southwest Illinois/northern parts of southern Illinois.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars over southeast Missouri for some showers/thunderstorm.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain will be possible. Increasing overnight into Wednesday morning.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Some of the guidance keeps portions of western Kentucky dry on Wednesday. Mostly the Pennyrile area into the Land between the Lakes. There is a question mark on that subject. I will need to monitor the placement of the frontal boundary.
Temperatures: High temperatures 64-68 degrees.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Some flooding can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Thursday – Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from 54-58. Temperatures over the rest of the area might be a bit warmer in the 60-65 degree range. Colder northwest behind the front. Milder southeast ahead of the front.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the front. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Flooding possible. Monitor updates.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Sunday morning. Some question on coverage as we move past Thursday night. At least on/off chances for showers and storms.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm and windy weather is on the way
- A few showers/storms possible late tonight over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Low chances, overall.
- Rain chances ramp up over parts of the area on Tuesday. Widespread rain/storms Tuesday night into at least Thursday.
- Active weather in the long range. Flooding is a concern.
An active weather pattern is developing for the region. Multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms over the coming 10-20 day period. Not the best forecast for rivers.
Monday into Tuesday:
Strong southerly winds will develop late Sunday night and continue into Tuesday. Perhaps the strongest winds will be on Monday and Monday afternoon. Winds of 15-30 mph are likely over the region. And, some gusts to 40 mph can’t be ruled out. Especially true for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
These strong southerly winds will help deliver warmer temperatures and more moisture into our local area. This will set the stage for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Let me show you how much the moisture will increase over the coming days. These two maps are dew point temperatures. Dew point is a better measure of moisture than relative humidity.
We start out with the Sunday map. Low dew points in the region. Dry air. Dew points are mostly in the 30s. Image is from weatherbell.com
Next. This is the Thursday dew point map. Big jump in dew points. Lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
Notice how the moisture will be streaming into our region from the Gulf of Mexico and even the Caribbean. Rich moisture feed for this system. This is called the ‘Maya Express’
It will not rain all of the time. And, there will be time periods where portions of our region will experience heavy rain while other areas are dry. At this time, the least amount of rain is expected over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. The highest totals will likely be over southeast Missouri.
Rain chances on Sunday night and Monday will be low. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may form on the nose of a low level jet (strong winds aloft) tonight and Monday morning. If this were to occur then it would mainly be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. High resolution guidance keeps most of the precipitation to our west and north. However, I can’t rule out some precipitation over our western and northern counties.
Here is the HRRR guidance for later tonight (around 12 am Monday morning). You can see some scattered showers over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Here is the high resolution WRF guidance. It shows a bit more activity than the HRRR. Bottom line is that I can’t rule out a few showers and/or thunderstorms later tonight into early Monday morning as the low level jet increases.
Here is the 850 mb winds for tonight. The low level jet shows up well on this graphic. The orange and red colors are strong winds at the 5000′ level. Often times showers and storms will develop on the nose of the stronger winds. That is mainly over Missouri on this chart. Image is from wright-weather.com
Monday night and Tuesday will deliver mostly dry conditions. Again, our far western counties of southeast Missouri may start to see shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up a little bit on Tuesday. afternoon.
Future-cast radar for Tuesday morning also shows a few showers over the Poplar Bluff area and parts of southeast Missouri. Maybe into southwest Illinois. Odds favor mostly dry conditions for the area on Tuesday. A few showers.
The bulk of the precipitation will arrive on Tuesday night into Thursday afternoon.
Here is the rainfall totals map for the time period of 6 pm Tuesday night through 6 am on Wednesday morning.
Here is the rainfall forecast from 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm on Wednesday evening.
There is some question on this graphic. Some of the guidance pushes the heavier rain a bit further east. Keep that in mind. Notice how the NAM guidance keeps portions of our region mostly dry. Again, some debate on that subject.
Here is the rainfall totals map from 6 pm on Wednesday evening through 6 am on Thursday morning
Finally, here is the rainfall forecast map from 6 am on Thursday morning through 6 pm on Thursday evening.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. See the rainfall totals graphics further down in the blog update. I am anticipating a widespread 1.5″-3″ rain event for the region. And, pockets of 3″-6″ are possible. This will cause some flooding concerns. This will be over several days, keep that in mind.
Here is my first forecast thoughts on totals. I will include the over/under numbers and probability charts. I will update these each day.
Here is my first forecast for rainfall totals.
Anticipated totals. This is what I expect to fall from Tuesday into the weekend. Several days of on/off rain. Won’t rain all the time. Periods of rain.
Here are the over/under numbers.
If the event were to exceed expectations. How much rain could fall between Tuesday and Sunday.
Here are the high end numbers.
Here are the low end numbers. Low end meaning if the system were to produce less than anticipated. The anticipated numbers represents my forecast. But, weather is always about probabilities. The anticipated numbers represent what to should fall.
Here is the low end event forecast numbers
Let’s take a look at my first forecast attempt at the probabilities.
I usually do this for snowstorms. But, I also put these out for heavy rain events. What is the percent probability for X amount of rain falling.
This first chart is for southeast Missouri
This next graphic is for southern Illinois
This next chart is for western Kentucky
This next chart is for the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky
This last chart is for northwest Tennessee
The overnight data has shown very little in the way of changes. I believe the heaviest totals will stretch from Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. Here is where the greatest risk for the large totals will be centered. The darker green is the highest risk zone.
Area rivers will likely rise over the coming weeks. There will be quite a bit of runoff water pouring into the basins.
Flash flood and/or flood watches may have to be issued for portions of the region later this week. What is the difference between a flash flood and a flood?
A flash flood normally occurs with heavy downpours that occur quickly. Think about summer thunderstorms that drop several inches of rain in an hour or two. This causes rapid rises on streams and creeks. Flash floods cause drainage systems to overload. Street flooding occurs during flash floods.
A flood watch is normally issued when an extended period of rain is expected. An extended period of rain could mean 24 hours or more. An event that could last more than one day. Water rises might be sharp, but they generally occur over a period of time vs rapidly.
Either way, some flooding is possible in our region.
There remain questions on how much thunderstorm activity will occur. If we end up with a lot of thunderstorms then the risk for flash flooding will increase. Monitor updates.
If you have experienced flooding problems in the past from large rain events then you might have concerns. Especially for general flooding vs flash flooding. And, if thunderstorms do occur then areas that have issues with flash flooding could also be impacted.
Large rises on area rivers may occur over the next 14 days. And, additional precipitation is possible next week. Spring has arrived and so have the spring rains. There is an above average risk for river flooding this year.
Showers and thunderstorms may occur on Thursday night into Sunday. The frontal boundary may stall out over our region. Meanwhile, areas of low pressure may ripple along the front. This could cause on and off rain chances right on into the weekend.
Data shows another rain/storm event around March 18th-20th.
A lot of weather to monitor over the coming days. Make sure you sign up for the texting. I will be texting out updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night – Small chance for lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Monday – Small chance for a morning thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Low confidence that lightning will occur.
Monday night and Tuesday – Lightning will be possible over southeast Missouri.
Tuesday night through Thursday – Thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe levels. Lightning and heavy downpours will be the primary concern.
Updated graphics.
.
Heavy rain event later this week. Concerned about river rises and flooding. Widespread 1.5-3″ with pockets of much higher totals likely.
Monitor updates on possible flash flood and/or flood watches later this week.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the anticipated rainfall totals from Tuesday through Sunday. Several days of on/off rain.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
