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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
I am starting a blog update just for the flood event (I might start doing this for events). Link.
Saturday Night – Windy this evening. A few evening clouds. Then, becoming mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Winds: Winds north/northwest at 10-25 mph in the evening. Becoming 5-10 mph late. Winds turning southerly late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Early morning sunshine. Then increasing clouds. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 58-64 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Cloudy. Not as cold. A shower possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if a shower develops.
Monday – Windy. A morning shower possible. Mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 64-68 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts to 40 mph. highest gusts over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to maybe scattered early in the morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible in a few spots. Gusty winds through the day.
Monday Night – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures well above normal in the 54-58 degree range.
Winds: South at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Tuesday – Some showers and some thunderstorms possible. Especially over our western counties in southeast Missouri. Rain chances should increase from west to east during the day. Pennyrile area of western Kentucky should remain dry. And, perhaps southeast Illinois, as well. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures 60-65 degrees.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 12 pm. 40%-60% after 12 pm. Better chances over southeast Missouri vs the Pennyrile of western Kentucky. Best chances west vs east.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread. More widespread over southeast Missouri vs areas further east.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain possible. Breezy at times.
Temperatures: High temperatures 64-68 degrees.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Some flooding can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain likely to be an issue
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from 54-58. Temperatures over the rest of the area might be a bit warmer in the 58-64 degree range. Colder northwest behind the front. Milder southeast ahead of the front.
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the front. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning possible. Flooding possible. Monitor updates.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Sunday morning.
Sunday School Forecast
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Seasonably mild Sunday on tap for the region
- Clouds increase late Sunday into Monday. Maybe a couple of showers Sunday night into Monday night
- Widespread rain on Tuesday night into Friday (and perhaps into Sunday morning). Several waves of precipitation. Some heavy.
- Flooding
Saturday delivered quite a bit of sun. Sure did beat the Friday forecast. Clouds would not exit on Friday. But, sunshine was reported over much of the region today (Saturday). Temperatures were near normal to perhaps a little above normal. Mostly in the 50s. A few lower to middle 60s over southeast Missouri 60s. Paducah also hit 60 degrees. Poplar Bluff made it all the way up to 70 degrees! Wide range of temperatures.
Sunday won’t be too much different than Saturday. Perhaps a few clouds approaching during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will again climb into the 50s. Perhaps a few lower 60s. Normal highs are in the lower to middle 50s.
Clouds increase on Sunday night and Monday. And, a few showers may also show up on radar Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered and light.
High pressure will move off to our east on Monday. That will turn our winds around to the south Sunday night and Monday.
Gusty winds arrive Sunday night into Monday. Expect a few gusts above 40 mph over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Monday. 15-30 mph will be the rule over the entire region. We are used to the gusty wind! The last 30 days have had several wind events. Tight barometric pressure gradients.
Heavy rain event likely later this week. Heaviest rains perhaps on Wednesday-Thursday. But, additional rain and storms are possible into Sunday.
Confidence is medium to high on the Tuesday through Thursday forecast.
Confidence is medium from Thursday night into Sunday morning.
Confidence on the placement of the heaviest rain band is low to medium.
Showers will move into the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. But, the heavier rains may hold off until Wednesday into Thursday. A widespread 1.5-3″ rain event is anticipated. And, bands of 3″-6″ will be possible. Locally higher. Below is my initial thoughts on where the largest totals might be located. This event is still several days away. Adjustments are possible, as always.
Second update on where the heaviest rain might be centered. Totals over 3″ will be possible within the green zone. And, areas outside of the box certainly could also experience significant rainfall, as well. The green area represents where I believe the highest totals could occur.
Let me show you the GFS ensembles. Ensembles are basically the same model but tweaked a little bit and run over and over again. If a lot of the ensembles are in agreement then confidence is higher on the forecast outcome.
The GFS is favoring the heaviest rain totals to be a bit further west/northwest. And, this is something I am closely monitoring.
Several waves of precipitation are anticipated. Each wave will set up a band of heavy rain over some of our counties. This band will likely be oriented southwest to northeast. And, this band could be anywhere from 50 to 75 miles wide. Hopefully each wave will shift the placement of the heaviest band. Otherwise, someone will walk away with a bucket of rain.
Flash flood and/or flood watches may have to be issued for portions of the region later this week. What is the difference between a flash flood and a flood?
A flash flood normally occurs with heavy downpours that occur quickly. Think about summer thunderstorms that drop several inches of rain in an hour or two. This causes rapid rises on streams and creeks. Flash floods cause drainage systems to overload. Street flooding occurs during flash floods.
A flood watch is normally issued when an extended period of rain is expected. An extended period of rain could mean 24 hours or more. An event that could last more than one day. Water rises might be sharp, but they generally occur over a period of time vs rapidly.
Either way, some flooding is possible in our region.
There remain questions on how much thunderstorm activity will occur. If we end up with a lot of thunderstorms then the risk for flash flooding will increase. Monitor updates.
If you have experienced flooding problems in the past from large rain events then you might have concerns. Especially for general flooding vs flash flooding. And, if thunderstorms do occur then areas that have issues with flash flooding could also be impacted.
Large rises on area rivers may occur over the next 14 days. And, additional precipitation is possible next week. Spring has arrived and so have the spring rains. There is an above average risk for river flooding this year.
Let me show you some graphics concerning the time table for precipitation.
These images are from weatherbell.com and are from the GFS model guidance. Green represents rain. The lines are isobars. Equal lines of barometric pressure.
This first image is for Tuesday between 11 am to 1 pm. You can see some showers are possible in our area. Mainly over our western counties in southeast Missouri.
This next image is for Tuesday night from 11 pm to 1 am on Wednesday morning. Notice that dark green area. That represents the heaviest band of rain.
This next image is for Wednesday between 11 am and 1 pm. Again, heaviest rain would be the dark green.
This next image is for Wednesday night from 11 pm to 1 am on Thursday morning.
This next image is for Thursday morning at 6 am.
This next image is for Thursday evening at 6 pm.
This next image is for Friday morning at 6 am.
This next image is for Friday evening at 6 pm.
This next image is for 6 am on Saturday
This next image is for Saturday evening at 6 pm.
This next image is for Sunday morning at 11 am.
Obviously that is a lot of rain. An extended period of rain. Days of on and off rain.
There are some questions about stronger storms on Saturday into Sunday morning. Monitor updates concerning that part of the forecast. The atmosphere may become more unstable on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, storms could occur.
Let me show you some of the latest rainfall totals via the models.
This is the rainfall forecast from the GFS guidance. Dark red to purple would be the highest totals. You can see that the GFS has the heaviest rains over parts of Missouri into Arkansas. This zone has been shifting around in the data from time to time. It has attempted to shift northwest. But, in other runs it will shift back to the southeast.
The placement of the heaviest rain band is uncertain. Monitor updates.
Here is the GEM guidance. The Canadian model. It has been ramping up rain totals over the past few days. Each run is a bit heavier. It started out, a few days ago, as the lightest of all the guidance.
I always watch for trends. The trend on the GEM has been heavier rain totals. Which is, of course, concerning.
A lot of weather to monitor over the coming days. Make sure you sign up for the texting. I will be texting out updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
Saturday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
Sunday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
Monday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Tuesday through Saturday: Some thunderstorms will be possible. Monitor updates.
Updated rainfall probabilities for Tuesday. Updated winds.
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Heavy rain event later this week. Concerned about river rises and flooding. Still early to know exactly how much rain will fall in each county. Widespread 1.5-3″ with pockets of much higher totals likely.
Monitor updates on possible flash flood and/or flood watches later this week.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain through Sunday. Heavy rain likely next week.
This is a preliminary look at how much rain could fall next Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday. Showers may arrive as early as Sunday night and Monday. Heavier rain Tuesday into Thursday.
What to take from this graphic?
Confidence level is medium to high that a heavy rain event will occur later this week.
NOAA has released this graphic. Keep in mind, there will likely be shifts in where the heaviest rain will fall. This is a very early forecast. Big totals for some counties.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
