We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Thursday Night – An evening shower possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible early. Rain should be ending.
Friday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly cloudy. Nice.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 55-60 degrees.
Winds: Southwest/west winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – A few clouds, but quite a bit of sun. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 56-62 degrees.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Cloudy. Not as cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 58-64 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe a few showers. Wet roadways.
Let’s keep a close eye on next weeks weather. Heavy rain event is possible.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cool weather Thursday night and Friday
2. A bit milder weather for Saturday and Sunday
3. Heavy rain event next week?
Rain fell over the region on Wednesday night and Thursday. Rainfall totals were on the light size, but some pockets of moderate rain were embedded in the rain shield. Some areas picked up almost no rain.
Check out the heavier band near the Kentucky and Tennessee border. That was because of bright-banding. The radar beam was bouncing off of sleet/snow falling from the clouds. But, the sleet melted before reaching the ground. This skewed the rainfall totals via radar.
Want to learn more about bright-banding? Click the image for full size view.
Weekend Forecast:
Expect dry weather on Friday into Sunday.
Camping forecast. Gusty winds on Saturday. Maybe a few clouds from time to time.
We do have a weak system passing to our northeast on Saturday. This could deliver a few clouds. I believe the bulk of the showers will remain to our northeast.
Temperatures over the weekend will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Not warm, but not cool. Slightly above normal temperatures.
The big story is the rain event next week. I am closely monitoring the potential for a heavy rain setup. There remain some questions as to just how much rain might fall.
This is what I know
- A storm system will approach our region on Sunday night and Monday with some showers
- Rain may increase considerably by Monday night into Wednesday. And, some data indicates beyond Wednesday.
- Locally heavy rain appears likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Thunderstorms are possible, but it is still too early to know if any of the storms could be severe (meaning high winds, hail, other)
Almost all available guidance has been trending towards a heavy rain event next week. The GFS and EC models are showing prolific rainfall totals over parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Several inches of rain may occur in our region. This event is centered on Tuesday and Wednesday.
One chart that I monitor for considering a heavy rain event is the PWAT chart. What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
These maps from the GFS guidance show day after day after day of high PWAT values. This is concerning.
Let me walk you through the maps.
Sunday. Note the brown colors. Dry atmosphere. Not a lot of moisture to work with.
Next is the Tuesday map. The green colors represent quite a bit of moisture. When you get into the blues and dark colors you are talking about substantial moisture in the atmosphere. The higher the numbers the more likely heavy rain will be an end result.
This next map is for Wednesday. Purple represents the highest values.
This next map is for Thursday
This next map is for next Friday
This next graphic is for next Saturday
This next map is for not this Sunday, but next Sunday. Day after day of substantial moisture.
This next map is for not this Monday, but next Monday. Yet another system? Let’s hope not.
Here is an animation of the PWAT values. Days and time at the top. This runs into next weekend and next Monday.
Another item that forecasters look for when considering a significant weather event is how much of the guidance is in agreement. And, how many days does the data keep showing the same solution. For several days now the guidance has been showing the same solution. Heavy rain extending into our region. We are on day three or four of the guidance showing the same thing over and over again. If this continues then confidence is going to increase.
Monitor updates on this potential heavy rain event.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
Saturday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
Sunday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Friday – Tuesday: No snow or ice in the forecast.
No major changes in this update.
.
Monitoring next week for the potential for heavy rain.
No. Several days of calm weather.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain through Sunday. Heavy rain likely next week.
This is a preliminary look at how much rain could fall next Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers may arrive as early as Sunday night and Monday. Heavier rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
What to take from this graphic?
This graphic will change over the coming days. Let’s monitor trends. Trends are how the map changes day over day. How does the heaviest rain axis shift? Do the totals go up or down? This map is produced by the WPC/NOAA.
Keep in mind that this is broad-brushed. Heavier totals are possible over parts of the red zone. Still in the day 5-6 range. Long way to go for those kind of details.
Confidence level is medium that a heavy rain event will occur next week.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
