March 3, 2019: Free blog today. Tracking the cold.

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My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

Today: Not today. Late tonight a Rain/snow mix with develop west to east. Temperatures will be above freezing for most of the area through much of the night. Monitor morning hours.
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Tomorrow: A mix of rain and snow will blanket the area tomorrow. At this time, snow totals look to be light. I have updated my forecast numbers. The best chance of sticking snow will be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Evansville, IN. From that line north and west stand the best chance. Areas south of that line may also have some accumulation. Rivers will continue to flood, keep that in mind. Avoid flooded roadways.

Rain, sleet, and snow today.
Bitterly cold air arrives tonight.

Confidence rating explained.

High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

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Today through Tuesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. See graphics below. Rain, sleet, and snow today. Light accumulation in some areas.
Is lightning in the forecast? No.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding, however, will continue.

Wednesday through next Tuesday the 12th

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Snow is possible Thursday. Too soon to know if accumulation will occur.
Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor the weekend.
Is severe weather in the forecast? I am monitoring Saturday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? I am monitoring Saturday. General river flooding will continue.

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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March 3, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow changing to all snow. Some accumulation is likely. Icy roads may develop as colder air arrives later today.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North at 14 to 24 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% MO 100% IL 100% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 100% Western KY 100% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Snow and ice covered roads. Low wind chill values towards evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Much colder. Low wind chill values. Monitor for black ice. Areas where moisture remains on surfaces as temperatures rapidly fall.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 6° to 14° South IL 6° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° West KY 13° to 16° NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -6° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% Southern IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending. A slight chance of flurries.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Snow and ice covered roads are possible in areas that received snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor road conditions. Some areas will not have icy roads. You will know this as the snow accumulates today. Areas with no accumulation will not have issues, of course.
Sunset: 5:51 PM
Moonrise: 4:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:13 PM

March 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 20°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some icy roads are possible. Low wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check road conditions. Low wind chill values.
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise: 6:22 AM

Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Cold. Cold wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 10° to 15° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:08 PM

March 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 20°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise: 6:21 AM

Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Cold. Cold wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 10° to 15° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:53 PM
Moonrise: 6:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:05 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s. Lows in the teens.

Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of precipitation. Cold. Highs in the 30’s and 40’s. Lows in the 30’s.

Friday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the 50’s. Lows in the 40’s.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow: No severe weather concerns.

Monday through Sunday: I am monitoring Saturday.

Sunday through Monday: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely today. Some of my forecast counties will receive accumulation. See graphics.

Bitterly cold air will filter into the region Sunday into the middle of next week. If we have a snowpack then single digits will be possible. Either way, it will be cold.

Areas without power, because of flooding, could have issues with pipes busting and ice forming. Standing water may freeze in flood areas, as well. This is especially true of the backwater.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Wintry weather today with a few locations receiving light accumulation. 0″ to 3″.
Cold air is on the way. Bitterly cold wind chill values.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No changes to the forecast.

Does the forecast require action?

Yes. Monitor road conditions today and tonight.

Yes. Bitterly cold wind chill values will require protective clothing.

Yes. Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

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Forecast discussion.

The main topic is today’s rain and snow. This will be followed by bitterly cold air.

Wind chill temperatures tonight will drop below zero. Brrr.

Actual air temperatures will fall into the 8 to 15-degree range over much of the area. A few degrees warmer from the Bootheel into western Tennessee.

Some morning snow photos.

Click to enlarge them.

Timeline of concerns:

Sunday and Sunday night:

Rain, sleet, and snow are likely to continue into early this afternoon. Bitterly cold air tonight.

Snow amounts are going to be low with this event. See graphic above. This is a fast-moving event, many areas will be above freezing as the snow falls, and the ground and road temperatures are fairly warm. All of this works against a big snow accumulation event.

This system is a perfect example of why I always say to wait until 24 hours in advance before putting out snow maps. Every forecaster put out maps that showed bigger snow totals. Everyone busted. I broke my rule and put out graphics 48 hours in advance.

That will not happen again. I should have stuck to my rule. A rule is a rule for a reason. This system proves my belief that winter storms in our region are so fickle that all we can say are generalities more than 24 hours in advance.

Bitterly cold air will follow this storm system.

A snowpack would mean temperatures dropping into the single digits Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night. Teens are for certain. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s.

This is bad news for the flood zone. Those without power may have water pipes burst. There could be ice form inside of unheated homes that have flood water in them. The backwater areas may also freeze over. That would mainly be still water areas.

You can see some of that colder air on this model temperature animation. The timestamp is located in the upper left.

Temperatures will vary based on snow totals.

Click to enlarge

Wind chill temperatures will also be bitterly cold.

During short wind gusts, we could see -5 to 5-degree wind chill values.

More likely will be consistent 5 to 15-degree wind chill values Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

6 AM Monday (wind chill values during the day will range from 6 to 12 above.

These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.

Tuesday at 6 AM

Wind chill values through most of the day will average in the 8 to 16-degree range.

These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.

Wednesday at 6 AM

Wind chill values during most of the day will range from 10 to 15 degrees.

These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week. I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

This is the GFS model.

Future-cast radar. What radar might look like based on this particular models understanding of the system.

This system is moving fast.

Pink is freezing rain and perhaps some sleet. Green is rain. Blue is snow.

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

Current conditions.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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No video today
The Ohio Valley video

Long-range This video.

No video today

The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

NAT_TemperatureOutlook_8-14Day.png (1920Ã1080)

Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 1st through March 7th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

March temperature and precipitation outlook

April temperature and precipitation outlook

May temperature and precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature outlook

Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

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WeatherBrains Episode 684

Also joining us as Guest WeatherBrain No. 2. is the Chief Meteorologist at FOX29 in San Antonio and is the President and CEO of the National Tropical Weather Conference. Alex Garcia, welcome to the WeatherBrains!

Last but not least, the Vice President for Operations of the National Tropical Weather Conference joins us on the show. In addition, he’s the Chief Meteorologist at KRGV in Weslaco, TX. Tim Smith, welcome!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: