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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- Rain enters the forecast.
- Monitoring the risk of a few strong storms on Saturday.
- Mild today into Friday. Turning colder behind the front Saturday/Saturday night.
- Much colder Saturday and Sunday night with frost and/or a light freeze again possible.
Today: No. There could, however, be some lightning.
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Tomorrow: No. There could, however, be some lightning.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Saturday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning possible Today into Saturday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Perhaps. I am monitoring Saturday. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Sunday through Saturday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 28, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere. Mild. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: 70° to 74° South IL 72° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 75° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 40% to 50% (mainly over northern parts of SE MO) IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered with the greatest coverage over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Perhaps northwest Kentucky, as well. Lesser chances elsewhere.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers. A thunderstorm is possible, as well. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South winds 8 to 16 mph and gusty, at times
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:14 PM
Moonrise: 2:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:20 PM
March 29, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Breezy. Scattered showers. A thunderstorm possible, as well. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greatest coverage may be over southeast Missouri and parts of southwest Illinois. There should be at least spotty showers area-wide.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to moderate
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is also possible. Turning colder over our northwestern and northern counties as a cold front pushes into the region. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 46° to 56° South IL 46° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 90% Southeast MO 90% Southern IL 90% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Pea size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset: 7:15 PM
Moonrise: 3:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:11 PM
March 30, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Showers and locally strong thunderstorms. Daytime highs will be early in the day. Falling temperatures. Windy. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 46° to 58° South IL 46° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 56° to 62° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80% Western KY 80% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning. Decreasing coverage through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce hail and high winds. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will come to an end. Some clearing overnight. Turning colder. A light freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% Southern IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Light freeze possible in some areas.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:16 PM
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:06 PM
Sunday: Becoming sunny. Highs in the middle 40’s to lower 50’s. Turning colder Sunday night with lows in the upper 20’s to middle 30’s. Wind gusts up to 25 mph during the day. Less than 10 mph at night.
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50’s. Lows in the middle 30’s. Wind gusts up to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Low confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of precipitation. Highs in the 50’s. Lows in the middle 30’s to lower 40’s. Wind gusts up to 10 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible today, Friday, Friday night, and Saturday.
Saturday through Wednesday: A few thunderstorms could be intense on Saturday. Lightning is possible Saturday. Monitor updates.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- Rain shower chances are on the rise.
- Monitoring the risk of strong storms on Saturday.
- Mild today and tomorrow. Turning colder on Saturday and Sunday.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
Added showers and storms to this morning’s forecast over parts of the area.
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures on Saturday. I lowered them.
Otherwise, no major adjustments. I continue to monitor Saturday night’s forecast in case the cold front slows.
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Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
Lightning is possible Friday into Saturday morning.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Forecast discussion.
An upper-level disturbance has triggered some rain and storms this morning over parts of the area. Definitely a surprise to see the amount of coverage.
High pressure, which brought our chilly nights, has moved off to the east. Our winds are becoming southerly and that means rising temperatures and a return to shower chances.
Our much-anticipated rain shower chances are arriving from the west. The shower activity will be spotty today over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A band of showers and thunderstorms will push into the region later tonight. It will move northwest to southeast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also dot radar on Friday. Although, there should be plenty of dry time through the day.
The greatest chance of rain will arrive Friday night into Saturday morning. That is when the cold front will sweep through the area. This is also when a few thunderstorms may occur.
Rain totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ will be common. There could be locally higher totals if thunderstorms train over the same area. In the event that happens then some spots could exceed an inch of rain.
The NAM guidance shows even higher rain totals to our north (even some snow in northern Illinois).
Gusty winds will be with us today into Saturday night. Those gusty winds will, from time to time, make it feel cooler.
Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures will fall behind the cold front by Saturday night. We should dip into the 30’s by Sunday and Monday morning. The coldest night being Sunday night. A few 20’s are possible across the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
Saturday’s highs may occur early in the day. That is because the frontal boundary is forecast to move across the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Latest guidance shows the potential of a few strong/severe storms on Saturday. Monitor updates.
Dry weather is likely Saturday night into Tuesday.
I am closely monitoring Saturday night in case the front stalls on Saturday afternoon. Some of the guidance attempts to slow the front and slide a second area of low pressure across the Tennessee Valley. This seems unlikely, but I am monitoring guidance.
The Canadian model slows the front enough that we have some scattered rain showers during the evening hours (Saturday). Again, for now, this is the outlier.
Either way, we would dry out Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday will be cool with gusty winds. Those winds will make it feel several degrees cooler than it is.
Temperatures will be cool on Monday and Tuesday but begin to climb as we move through the week.
Spring breaks from Louisiana over to Florida and the Carolina’s will need to monitor the cold front that passes through our region and then a second wave of low pressure that forms along the front.
That second area of pressure would slow the cold front and would bring additional showers and thunderstorms that would linger into Tuesday. Even longer in the Carolina’s.
You can see that second wave of low pressure on the GFS models.
This first map is the Monday 1 PM map. You can see the rain along the Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern United States.
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Another run of the GFS model. Again, you can see that expanding area of rain along the Gulf of Mexico.
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Here is the GFS model animation. You can see the second wave on it, as well.
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The EC model also shows this second wave.
Tuesday 1 AM weather map. The colors represent rain totals.
This shows you rain totals from 7 PM to 1 AM Monday night/Tuesday morning
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Tuesday 6 AM
This shows precipitation totals from 1 AM to 6 AM Tuesday
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Here is the NAM model guidance.
You can see a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 48 to 72 hours.
Remember, this is a model depiction of what radar might look like. It won’t be exact.
Timestamp upper left.
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The GFS lingers rain longer. It brings it to an end by Saturday mid-evening.
That would occur if the front slows a bit.
It even shows enough cold air to change the rain to non-accumulating snow.
I continue to monitor trends on the speed of the frontal boundary.
Timestamp upper left.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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end
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrain for this week is Dina Knightly, formerly an employee of The Weather Channel who now works for IBM as a senior meteorologist. She was a former weather producer on The Weather Channel’s Wake Up With Al, Weather Center Live and Weekend Recharge. She has a bachelors degree in Atmospheric Science from The Ohio State University where she earned a private pilots license. Before her weather career, she had over seven years with Continental Airlines as a customer service agent and operations specialist.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Continued discussions about the dangers of manufactured homes in tornado situations
- The problems of long-range forecasts
- What will the weather enterprise look like in 10 years?
- Alabama hailers on 3/25/19
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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