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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- A nice day. Milder!
- Warmer weather into Saturday.
- Rain chances ramp up Thursday night into Saturday.
Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
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Today through Friday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning possible Friday into Saturday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Saturday through Friday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday. Monitor updates.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 27, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph (esp over southeast Missouri)
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear early with some increase in clouds overnight. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light south winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
March 28, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds during the day. A chance of a shower over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mild. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 0% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None over much of the area. Widely scattered over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of scattered showers. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South winds 8 to 16 mph and gusty, at times
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
March 29, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A chance of scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Mild. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Some showers are possible.
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% Southern IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
Saturday: Cloudy. Showers likely. A chance of a thunderstorm. Breezy. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Turning colder Saturday night with lows in the middle to upper 30’s. South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 15 to 30 mph
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Turning colder Sunday night with lows in the 30’s. Wind gusts up to 25 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50’s. Turning colder Sunday night with lows in the 30’s. Wind gusts up to 10 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday through Wednesday: Lightning is possible Friday night and Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- A nice day today and tomorrow.
- Rain shower chances ramp up mainly Thursday night into Saturday evening. Peak chances will be Friday night/Saturday.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
No major changes. I did add slight chances of afternoon rain showers Thursday afternoon over the western counties southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Odds favor Thursday being dry.
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Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Forecast discussion.
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We have a nice day on tap for the region. I hope you have a chance to enjoy it!
Temperatures today will mostly be in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. The sunshine will make it feel warmer.
No rain today or tonight.
Our next storm system pushes into the region Thursday night and that will linger into Saturday.
A few scattered showers could occur as early as Thursday afternoon and night over the western half of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Odds favor most of the area remaining dry.
Rain chances will ramp up a little bit on Friday. I would not cancel any plans. I would monitor radars.
The best chance of rain, however, will be Friday night and Saturday. This is when rain chances will be at or above 70%. A few thunderstorms will also be possible. Severe weather is currently not anticipated. As always, monitor updates.
We will have to monitor the timing of the frontal passage on Saturday. This will control when the rain comes to an end. For now, I have rain chances continuing into late morning and the afternoon. If we are lucky the front will push through faster and we will be finished with most of the rain before the afternoon hours.
Some locally heavy rain is possible from this event. It does not appear that widespread flooding will be a concern. There could be some ditches overflow and some rises in streams.
GFS rain totals
NAM model rain totals
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PWAT values will be well above normal during this event. That means a greater chance of moderate to heavy downpours.
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Colder temperatures arrive Saturday night and Sunday night. Lows will drop back down into the 30’s. We will have to see if anyone dips below 32 degrees.
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Sunday morning lows per the GFS model
Monday morning lows per the GFS model
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Here is the GFS model guidance.
Time-stamp upper left.
Here is the NAM guidance. The NAM does not go out as far in time.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Here is the EC model guidance.
Date-stamp upper left.
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.These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrain for this week is Dina Knightly, formerly an employee of The Weather Channel who now works for IBM as a senior meteorologist. She was a former weather producer on The Weather Channel’s Wake Up With Al, Weather Center Live and Weekend Recharge. She has a bachelors degree in Atmospheric Science from The Ohio State University where she earned a private pilots license. Before her weather career, she had over seven years with Continental Airlines as a customer service agent and operations specialist.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Continued discussions about the dangers of manufactured homes in tornado situations
- The problems of long-range forecasts
- What will the weather enterprise look like in 10 years?
- Alabama hailers on 3/25/19
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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