Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 26th and 27th: Storms are the focus

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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March 26, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Becoming cloudy.  Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late (after 2 am)  Breezy.  Temperatures may rise towards sunrise.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late.  Lightning possible late.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.  I can’t rule out some reports of hail late tonight/early Monday morning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60% late  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Increasing coverage late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 56   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 52 to 56    TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph early and then 7 to 14 mph after 3 am.  Gusty after 3 am.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent

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March 27, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong.  Monitor updates.  Breezy, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Hail and strong winds possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Severe weather is a possibility.  See discussion further down in this post.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75     KY ~ 70 to 75   TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Higher gusts likely.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

March 27, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A good chance for evening showers and thunderstorms.  Activity should decrease late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning.  Wet roadways.  Some evening storms could be intense.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  A few evening storms could be severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%  decreasing chances overnight
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous.  Dwindling as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.  Winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m.  New Moon

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March 28, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A small chance for remaining showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Precipitation should have ended.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 68     IL ~ 62 to 66    KY ~ 62 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:14 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4 
Moonrise 
will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.  Will monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 52    KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 29, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds. A 20% for showers and storms (more likely as you move into southeast Missouri vs our eastern counties of the Pennyrile).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?  Not during the daylight hours.  Monitoring Wednesday night and Thursday
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:15 p.m.
UV Index
: 4 to 6 
Moonrise 
will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west and southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 30, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Is severe weather expected?  Possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds:  South winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms decreasing through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor the evening hours.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but decreasing through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 54   IL ~ 50 to 54    KY ~ 50 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  Southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 8:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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March 31, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65    KY ~ 60 to 65   TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:16 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 1, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice day, anticipated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  North at 5 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 2, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68    KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  North at 5 mph.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
UV Index
: 7 to 9
Moonrise 
will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A late night shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 45 to 50    KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m.  Waxing Crescent

 

 


More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night:  Thunderstorms are possible after 2 am.  Lightning is the main concern.  A second concern will be dime to nickel size hail.

Monday and Monday night:  Thunderstorms will occur.  A few of the storms could reach severe levels.  Large hail and damaging wind possible.  Small risk for a tornado.  Monitor text message and Facebook updates.

Tuesday into Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday night and Thursday:  Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Your day by day analysis

Sunday night
Confidence:  High

Clouds will lower late tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from the west and southwest.  A few heavy downpours are possible and a few storms could produce dime to nickel size hail, as well.  The risk for larger hail is small, but not zero.  The timing of storms tonight will likely be after 12 am.

The Paducah, KY sounding shows some CAPE during the 3 am to 8 am time period.  Not overly impressive, but perhaps enough to support some small hail.

Monday
Confidence:  High confidence there will be storms.  Medium confidence that some storms will be severe.

The main concern on Monday will be an incoming area of low pressure.  The low will push into our region from the southwest.  The low is currently forecast to track over our local area.  This means that some of our storms could become severe with hail and high winds.  The tornado risk is not zero.

There remain some questions as to the extent of the severe weather threat.  I would encourage you to monitor updates.  Some watches and warnings possible.

Dew points, according to the 3K NAM guidance, are more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.  I typically look for 58 degrees and higher.  The NAM guidance indicates dew points into the 60’s.  That is concerning.  Lot of fuel for storms.

Dew point map for Monday afternoon

What are dew points?  Click here for an explanation.

CAPE values are sufficient for severe weather, as well.  CAPE is a measure of energy.  Want to learn more about CAPE?  Click here.

Cloud heights will be low.  This typically increases the tornado risk.  The overall tornado risk appears to be low, but not zero.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area for at least some scattered severe weather reports.  This graphic will change a few times between now and the time period of concern.  If you want to read their latest update then click here

Here was the outlook as of early Sunday afternoon (again, monitor updates for changeable graphics)

Yellow is the greatest risk zone.

Here is the future-cast radar (remember this is a model and not gospel)

Take generalities from these graphics and not specifics.

4 AM Monday

7 AM

1 PM future-cast radar.  Green is rain.  Yellow is heavier rain.  Orange is heavier, yet.

4 PM future-cast radar.

Tuesday into Wednesday
Confidence:  Medium

For the most part, Tuesday into Wednesday morning should be dry.  Confidence drops after 5 am on Wednesday.  Another system will push into the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The question will be timing of rain.  I will probably include rain in the Wednesday forecast, but chances for rain will increase considerably on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Models have been handling the Thursday system rather poorly.  The GFS had the low near New Orleans.  I discounted that track.  The track will likely be further north.  Today’s data pulled the low into our region.  This makes more sense, but will need to be closely monitored.

The track of the low is important because if the low tracks to our west and north that places us in the unstable part of the system.  That equals thunderstorms.  We need to monitor the severe weather risk for Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

 

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Find me on Twitter

whatamiconcered

The main concern will be thunderstorm activity on Monday and Monday night.  Monitor updated forecasts and make sure you are receiving the text messages.  I will be utilizing the messages if severe weather develops.

Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars.  The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area.  Use them to track thunderstorms.  You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars.  Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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