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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- Dry and cool today.
- Heavy frost likely tonight. Some areas may also experience freeze conditions.
- Warming trend Sunday into the weekend.
- Monitoring two storm systems. One Thursday night into Saturday. Another one Sunday and Monday.
- The second system has a low confidence rating. Model guidance is bouncing all over the place with it.
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Long-range This video.
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Thursday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Friday through Tuesday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday night into Saturday. Monitor updates. There are questions about a second system Sunday/Monday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 26, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 3 to perhaps 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A chance of frost and a light freeze.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Variable light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 32°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze or frost is possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:12 PM
Moonrise: 12:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:45 AM
March 27, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light south winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
March 28, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds during the day. A slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Mild. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps a few wet roadways over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of scattered showers. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
Friday: High confidence. A chance of showers. Rain showers likely Friday night a thunderstorm is possible. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the lower to middle 50’s. South winds 15 to 25 mph gusty
Saturday: Medium confidence. Cloudy. Showers likely. A chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Turning colder Saturday night with lows in the middle to upper 30’s. South and southwest winds 15 to 30 mph
Sunday: Low confidence. Monitor the Sunday/Sunday night forecast. A second area of low pressure may form. That would mean continued precipitation chances. Highs in the 50’s. Turning colder Sunday night with lows in the 30’s. Wind gusts up to 15 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday through Tuesday: Lightning is possible Friday night and Saturday. I am closely watching the potential of a second area of low pressure to develop Saturday night or Sunday along the Gulf of Mexico. This could lead to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys. Confidence is low. Monitor updates.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- A decent day ahead of us.
- Frost likely tonight. A freeze is also possible for some areas.
- Mild weather Wednesday into Saturday.
- Rain chances ramp up as we move into Thursday night and especially Friday into Saturday.
- I am closely monitoring the Saturday night into Monday forecast. A second area of low pressure may form. If that happens then precipitation chances would continue into both Sunday and Monday. Low confidence on system two.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
I lowered Tuesday night’s temperatures by a couple of degrees. Widespread frost is likely.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Forecast discussion.
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We have the potential of an active weather pattern beginning this coming weekend. The concern will be rain and perhaps thunderstorms. Several systems may bring precipitation into our region over the coming twenty days.
The GFS model is most active. The EC model is active but not as active as the GFS.
A heavy frost is likely tonight (Tuesday night). Temperatures in the region will drop into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. A freeze is possible in some areas.
We will have dry conditions today into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will rise a few degrees each day. You can expect widespread middle to upper 60’s by Thursday and Friday. A few spots could hit 70 degrees.
Check out the GFS model’s temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday. Nice temperatures.
Thursday
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Friday. Some rain showers are likely Friday. We will have to see how that impacts temperatures. 60’s are a sure bet.
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Temperatures on Saturday might not be as warm because of rain.
Rain chances begin to creep back into the forecast by Thursday night. They then increase from there. The chances of rain will peak on Friday night and Saturday.
There are significant differences in guidance package details for the Saturday night through Monday time-frame.
Some computer models are showing a large and significant storm system tracking from the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. This would deliver additional precipitation chances into our region during the Sunday and Monday time-frame.
Confidence in this happening is low. Monitor updates moving forward.
Those heading to the Gulf of Mexico for spring break will also want to monitor this system.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Here is the GFS model. The model swings back and forth as to what happens with the weekend system. Whether the second area of low-pressure forms is the key question.
For example, last nights model runs show the system further south. The EC tracks it through central and northern Florida (this is system two).
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Let me show you the EC ensemble mean.
It shows the system developing and deepening further north and west.
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Date stamp at the top of the image.
Keep in mind, this is just one run. This model runs four times each day.
You can see system one that arrives Thursday night into Saturday.
Watch system two then form along the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. It then tracks northeast.
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Here is another view of the Sunday/Monday system from the GFS model. Zoomed in.
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Let me show you the morning run of the GFS.
It has lost the storm system and has one main cold front.
Monitor updates. Model guidance remains uncertain on system two.
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.These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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end
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrains tonight are geographers who study the intersections of physical science and social science as it relates to tornadoes and all meteorological hazards. Dr. Stephen Strader and Dr. Walker Ashley, welcome to the show!
Tonight’s first Guest Panelist is from the Carolina Weather Group Podcast. He spent 15 years as a professional firefighter. In 2017, he decided to start pursuing weather and started a blog. He joined Carolina Weather Group in 2018. Chris Jackson, welcome!
Also joining us as Guest Panelist is a Mississippi State University meteorology student who is also in charge of this year’s Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Alex Forbes, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- National Weather Podcast Month
- Vortex Southeast
- 2019 Southeast Severe Storms Symposium
- Correlation between mobile homes and tornado fatalities
- Mapping of mobile homes and utilizing it on-air during severe weather
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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