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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.
- Go to today’s forecast
- Go to the severe weather outlook
- Go to the weather forecast discussion
- Go to the model future-cast radars
- Go to videos
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- Go to Weatherbrains
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- Breezy today.
- Light showers today. Drizzle.
- Clearing and cold tonight and Tuesday night with 30’s.
- Dry Tuesday through Thursday night.
- Monitoring the weekend for another rain event.
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The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Wednesday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Thursday through Monday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday night into Sunday. Monitor updates.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 25, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A light shower possible this morning. Lesser chances this afternoon. Cooler. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor morning radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze is possible. Might be too windy for frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:11 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:03 AM
March 26, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 3 to perhaps 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A chance of frost or a light freeze.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Variable light winds less than 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A light freeze or frost is possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:12 PM
Moonrise: 12:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:45 AM
March 27, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 45° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:13 PM
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:30 AM
Thursday: Increasing clouds. Mild. Showers possible Thursday night. Highs in the upper 60’s. Lows in the lower 50’s. Winds above 15 mph are possible.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of spotty showers Friday. Rain showers likely Friday night. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the lower to middle 50’s. South winds 10 to 20 mph gusty
Saturday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Turning colder Saturday night with lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the SW to W NW late.
Rain may return on Sunday and Sunday night, as well.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms are possible Friday into Sunday. For now, the severe weather risk appears low. As always, monitor updates.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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- Calmer weather.
- Mild weather Wednesday into Saturday.
- Rain chances return this coming weekend. Several rounds are possible.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
No major adjustments.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Forecast discussion.
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Rainfall totals over the last 72 hours. Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois received heavy rain.
Click to enlarge.
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Portions of the region had a stormy Sunday.
Widespread rain moved across the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning. That rain then moved off to the east and some areas had sunshine. Those areas watched instability build. The end result was several supercell thunderstorms that tracked across eastern Missouri and southern Illinois.
Hail was the primary concern. There were numerous reports of pea to nickel size hail. A few reports of quarter size hail. A couple of reports of golfball size hail (eastern MO).
Thankfully, the storms weakened as we lost sunlight.
The weather is going to be calm today through Thursday.
It will be breezy today. The wind will make it feel cooler. Colder temperatures tonight and tomorrow night with 30’s likely. A light freeze can’t be ruled out. Some frost Tuesday night as winds die down.
Another rainmaker will push into the region by late Thursday night and more likely Friday into Sunday. Several rounds of rain will be possible as a series of low-pressure centers pass through our region.
At this time, the risk of severe weather appears small. With that said, it is that time of the year. Monitor updates in case there is more instability than currently anticipated.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Here is what the EC guidance shows for our weekend system. It centers the highest rain chances on Friday night into Saturday night.
It is important to note that other data shows several rounds of rain that lingers into early next week. This will need to be monitored.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Our Guest WeatherBrains tonight are geographers who study the intersections of physical science and social science as it relates to tornadoes and all meteorological hazards. Dr. Stephen Strader and Dr. Walker Ashley, welcome to the show!
Tonight’s first Guest Panelist is from the Carolina Weather Group Podcast. He spent 15 years as a professional firefighter. In 2017, he decided to start pursuing weather and started a blog. He joined Carolina Weather Group in 2018. Chris Jackson, welcome!
Also joining us as Guest Panelist is a Mississippi State University meteorology student who is also in charge of this year’s Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Alex Forbes, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- National Weather Podcast Month
- Vortex Southeast
- 2019 Southeast Severe Storms Symposium
- Correlation between mobile homes and tornado fatalities
- Mapping of mobile homes and utilizing it on-air during severe weather
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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