11 PM
Storms have produced some hail and gusty winds in the region tonight. Heavy rain is the main concern now.
I am running a now-cast thread over on Facebook – check that for the most up to date information.
5 PM
No real changes.
Most of the area has been calm this afternoon.
An area of severe thunderstorms has formed over southwest and south central Missouri. These storms are moving east.
A severe thunderstorm watch covers areas of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Part of Kansas, as well. This watch is to our west.
Storms will move into southern Illinois and southeast Missouri as the evening wears on.
No change in my overall outlook.
10 AM
Update highlights…
1. Atmosphere is becoming more unstable than previously forecast
2. The sun is causing CAPE values to rise. CAPE is available energy for storms
3. Have increased my wording just a little bit for severe weather.
4. The risk appears to be a bit more east and northeast than earlier forecasts
5. A few storms this evening and tonight could produce hail and high winds. Small tornado risk. Heavy rain concerns are high. Where storms train repeatedly there will be 1-3″ of rain.
Monitor updates through the day. Severe weather events are fluid. That means there are always a few surprises and adjustments.
The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk for severe weather a little bit. There is a lot of sunshine over our area. Sun on a severe weather day is always bad news. That means the atmosphere will become more unstable.
The new outlook has increased the threat area a bit further east and northeast.
The storms will form this evening and tonight. A few of them could produce high winds and hail. Isolated tornado threat. Heavy rain, as well.
Satellite shows clear sky conditions over a large portion of our region. Again, sun on a severe weather day means more energy. More energy means the severe weather risk increases a bit. 10 AM satellite.
This is the new SPC severe weather outlook (it will be updated a couple of more times today)
Future-cast radar from weatherbell.com
Notice how the storms train over the same areas? That means heavy rain. It appears the heavy rain threat could be a county or two further south than previously thought. This will need to be watched.
This first image is for around 6 pm to 7 pm. Notice one cell in west KY. Other cells in southern Missouri. A few of these could become severe.
A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will be issued for portions of our region later today/tonight. Monitor updates. Severe weather days are fluid. Always a few surprises.
Future-cast radar for around 7 pm to 9 pm tonight. More storms forming and training over the same area. The heaviest rain axis will end up with 1-3″ of rain. Flooding possible where that happens.
Then between 9 pm and midnight – more storms. Training over the same area. Heavy rain potential is very high with this event. Where the storms train, there will be problems.
The heaviest rain axis is shifting southward a bit. Check out this new update – this is rainfall through 11 pm tonight (more falls afterwards). Keep in mind this is through the 11 pm to 12 am time frame. Additional heavy rain falls further east as the storms move east.
Next update will be early this afternoon
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
A flash flood watch and flood watch covers portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. The flood watches will run from this evening into Thursday morning.
A band of 1-3″ of rain will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning across portions of south central Missouri into southern Illinois. It will likely be a narrow band where the heaviest totals occur (see rainfall charts below).
Wednesday – Partly sunny and mild. More humid. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Southerly/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds at times. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower. Mild. Temperatures will be in the 50’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm. Warm. Highs in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Temperatures may be a bit cooler over our northern counties. Southerly/southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night – Showers and thunderstorms (esp over southern IL and southeast MO). Locally heavy rain possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms with high winds and hail. Showers and thunderstorms might hold off for much of western Kentucky until well after midnight. Will have to update the timing in today’s updates. Lows in the 50’s. Southerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty. Winds shifting out of the west/northwest late. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Thursday – Morning showers and thunderstorms. Quite a few clouds. Cooler. Highs in the 50’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and colder. Lows will dip into the 30’s. Northerly winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Friday – Partly sunny and cold. Highs only in the 40’s. Northerly/northwest winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Perhaps some light snow Friday night and Saturday morning. I will have to take a deeper look at this. I have had snow in the forecast for a couple of days during that time frame. Low confidence.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm and humid air mass over portions of our region today. Temperatures may once again be cooler over our northern counties (see temp maps)
2. A few thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon. These storms should remain below severe levels.
3. Thunderstorms will form along a cold front tonight. They will move from the west towards the east/northeast at 30-45 mph. An isolated storm could become severe with strong winds and hail. Overall the risk is small for severe weather. Best chances for thunderstorms tonight will be over southern IL and southeast MO. It might be late late before Kentucky has much activity. Monitor updates today.
4. Colder air arrives for Thursday night into the weekend. I still have some potential for light snow in the forecast Friday night and Saturday morning. Low confidence, but monitoring. Not a big deal (if it were to happen).
Well, I can’t say I was proud of my temperature forecast for parts of the area on Tuesday. Temperatures remained in the upper 30’s over parts of the Mt Vernon, Illinois area and 40’s over much of southern Illinois.
The warm front stalled out and did not make much progress northward. I expected it to be about 4-5 counties further north than it was. Oh well! Can’t win them all.
Today…
The warm front will have moved northward over the Tuesday night hours. That places us solidly in the warm sector of the developing storm to our southwest.
An area of low pressure will push northeast late today and tonight. A cold front will approach from the west/northwest.
This will set the stage for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms today and especially tonight into Thursday morning.
I have covered much of the potential over the last few days. Not much change in my thinking.
We may see some scattered storms form later this morning and afternoon. If storms do form then lightning would be the main concern. I can’t rule out gusty winds and small hail. I believe the severe weather risk is minimal today and this afternoon.
Tonight…
The entire system approaches our local counties from the west. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will form late this afternoon from central Missouri into Oklahoma.
A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch will be issued later today for parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. How far east this watch will extend is questionable. And, there may be more than watch issued (keep that in mind). Normally you have one watch issued and then if the squall line (line of storms) holds together then another watch will be issued. The risk for severe weather in our region is marginal. Better chances further west/southwest of our area. But, as always – monitor updates.
The line of storms will expand northeast and southwest through the evening hours. It will be moving towards the east/northeast.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to enter western parts of southern Illinois (Randolph County, IL area) back into south central Missouri by late afternoon or during the early evening hours.
As the night wears on we will see the storms on radar moving into the rest of our area.
The storms may not move into all of southern Illinois and western Kentucky until after 9 pm. It may be past midnight for our eastern counties.
Some questions on the timing for western Kentucky – could be late late tonight. Monitor updates today. I will post updates at the top of the page.
Let’s look at a couple of future-cast radars
This is for late this afternoon and evening (as the line of thunderstorms starts to bubble up)
Images are from weatherbell.com and you may click the image for a larger view
Let’s more forward into late this evening. This would be around 10 pm – 11 pm central time.
Assuming this model is correct (check back today for the latest information) then the line will be advancing into southern Illinois and southeast Missouri later this evening.
This might be a little overdone, but you get the general idea that showers and thunderstorms will be moving into the region tonight. Again, severe weather risk isn’t zero, but it isn’t all that great either.
Heavy rain is the main concern.
Then later tonight (wee hours of Thursday morning) – the line moves east and weakens. The concern will be heavy rainfall. Note the additional rain back in Missouri.
Quite a bit of the precipitation with this event will be right along the front and BEHIND the front. Again, locally heavy rain could cause some flooding problems in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (see the flood watches on the graphics)
Severe weather risk…
Instability tonight (Wednesday night) won’t be all that impressive. We will have enough CAPE to cause some concern for a few pockets of damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is minimal, but not zero. Overall this set-up is a marginal severe weather event for our region.
A better risk for severe weather will exist back over southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and Oklahoma. The instability is less over our region.
If the line of storms were to form a few hours ahead of schedule then the concern for severe weather will increase a bit. Keep that in mind. Any line segments with the squall line or bowing areas would be the areas to produce high winds and possibly hail.
As always, it only takes one severe thunderstorm to cause problems. Monitor the latest watches and warnings as we push into this evening and tonight. There may be a few warnings issued.
By Thursday morning the precipitation will be on-going over some of our counties, but ending from west to east.
Lingering showers may remain over our eastern counties into Thursday afternoon.
Much colder air arrives on Friday and Saturday. I suspect we will have 20’s for lows on Saturday morning.
Small chance for rain or rain/snow mix Friday and Saturday. The data keeps going back and forth on this subject. Not a big deal, but it is a testament to how cold it is going to be. WELL below normal temperatures.
Let me show you a few charts…
These are temperature charts for today and tomorrow. Temperatures may not rise above 50 degrees on Thursday afternoon. Cool/cold again.
Here are the Wednesday afternoon temperatures. You can see the cooler air to the north (north of the warm front)
Images are from weatherbell.com and you can always click the image for a full view. Notice how warm it will be today ahead of our storm system. Warm air moving northward.
Let’s move ahead to Thursday morning. See the colder air advancing eastward behind the cold front? Much cooler air moving into the region.
I wanted to show you this image for Thursday afternoon. Just look at that cold front. See how warm it is well to our east? Sharp front.
Temperatures on Saturday will be well below normal. Check out this anomaly map from the GFS model. How many degrees below normal will it be.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Added a flash flood and flood watch graphic for parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Locally heavy rain tonight could cause some problems.
Rainfall totals of 1-3″ will be possible along a band from south central MO into southern IL. See the rainfall graphic for details.
The main concern will be thunderstorms today and tonight. A strong cold front will approach from the west. As the front bumps into our warm and humid air mass, thunderstorms will develop and spread eastward. There could be a few storms throughout today, but the main concern will arrive tonight.
Heavy rain is the other concern. Saturated grounds won’t handle heavy thunderstorms very well. Thus, a flash flood and flood watch has been issued for portions of the area.
We go through this several times each year. The best advice is to stay informed and monitor updated information.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – A few severe storms are possible on Wednesday night. Isolated reports of large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. Tornado risk is minimal, but not zero. Again, the better risk area for severe weather may be a bit to our west and southwest. Monitor updates, as always during events like this.
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Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – A few morning storms. Storms could be strong with gusty winds.
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Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms are not in the forecast.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms are not in the forecast.
Will I need to take action?
Yes, monitor the most up to date watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. A flood watch covers parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Locally heavy rain is a good bet today into Thursday morning. The best chance for widespread heavy rain will arrive tonight. A line of thunderstorms will push through the area from west to east. This line could produce a few reports of severe weather. Locally heavy rain in excess of 1″ will be possible in our region. Some spots could pick up 1″-3″.
This is the best estimate for rainfall totals. Any shift north or south of the main band would, of course, change the map.
Click the map for a larger view.
Now, with the above map posted – let me show you another map.
This is the NAM model’s idea. It has some merit. The heaviest rains may very well stay over southern Illinois into southern Missouri. It could take awhile to get the heavier rain into western Kentucky. Something to consider.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center – Storm Prediction Center
What does thunderstorms, marginal, slight, enhanced, medium, and high risk mean? Click here
Current Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches from the Storm Prediction Center. The Storm Prediction Center is in charge of issuing watches. Our local National Weather Service Office in Paducah, Kentucky is in charge of issuing warnings.
Remember that a watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather. Severe weather MIGHT develop over the coming hours. Watches normally last 4 to 8 hours. Monitor updates for possible warnings. A watch is a step below a warning.
A warning means to take immediate action to protect you and your family. Warnings usually last from 15 to 45 minutes. A warning means that a storm is moving into your area.
For additional watch information click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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