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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on. Gusty winds likely. A strong storm or two possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-30 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 11 pm and then 80% after 11 pm
Coverage of precipitation? Becoming widespread late at night
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Risk of severe weather is fairly low, but not zero.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Lightning. A strong storm or two possible.
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms likely during the first half of the day. Precipitation ending from west to east as the day wears on. Best chances for precipitation before 2 pm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 50s behind the front. A few lower 60s ahead of the front. Front moves through the area during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80% before 1 pm and then diminishing to 20% after 1 pm (Pennyrile area may have showers/storms into the middle of the afternoon and chances may be higher than 20%). Front will sweep through the area from west to east. Rain ends fairly soon once the front passes your area.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread early and then becoming scattered during the afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is a good bet early in the day and then diminishing chances as the day wears on. Ending first over southeast Missouri. Ending last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A couple of strong storms can’t be ruled out. Gusty winds and small hail. Tornado risk is low.
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Wet roadways. A strong storm or two possible with gusty winds and small hail. Tornado risk is low.
Thursday Night – Some clouds. Small chance for a shower. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing significant
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for freeze conditions.
Friday – Partly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 50s
Winds: Northwest wind at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Small chance for frost.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and mild. Nice day anticipated for outdoor activities.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 60s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated or none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasingly cloudy. Perhaps a shower or storm during the afternoon. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 60s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers are possible. Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways. Low confidence.
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday
- Freeze possible Thursday night/Friday morning
- Monitoring Sunday for another system
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
The big weather story over the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front that will sweep across our area on Thursday morning. The front should arrive over southeast Missouri between 4 am and 7 am (Thursday). It will then shift eastward through the day.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. There is a small risk for severe thunderstorms. Instability is lacking with this system. CAPE numbers (available energy for storms) will be low. Dew points are also fairly low. Wind fields aloft are strong. But, without a lot of CAPE the severe weather risk will be minimal. Not zero, but not great.
A line of thunderstorms will push into southern Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee between 5 am and 10 am. Showers and scattered storms are possible ahead of the main line.
Precipitation will first end over southeast Missouri and last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″-0.50″ will be possible as the front moves through the area. Locally higher totals can occur in thunderstorms. Keep that in mind. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by small hail and gusty winds.
Winds will turn out of the west behind the cold front. Temperatures may actually fall on Thursday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front.
Temperatures on Thursday night and Friday morning will dip into the 30s. I can’t rule out lower 30s. If that is the case then a freeze will again be possible.
Dry weather is expected on Friday and Saturday.
Another area of low pressure may push into our region on Sunday and Sunday night. Confidence is low as to the eventual track of that system. Much of Sunday may remain dry. Better chances of showers and storms may enter the picture on Sunday night and Monday. Again, low confidence on the Sunday forecast.
Let’s look at a few weather maps from weatherbell.com This is the WRF model guidance. This is the future-cast radar. What radar MIGHT look like late tonight into Thursday.
This first image is for 1 am Thursday morning. You can see a line of showers and storms from northeast Missouri into southwest Missouri. The line then extends into western Arkansas. This line of storms is along and ahead of the cold front.
This next image is for 7 am on Thursday morning. You can see quite a bit of precipitation in our local area. Showers and some thunderstorms. Gusty winds with some of the storms.
This next image is for 9 am on Thursday morning. You can see the line of showers and storms shifting eastward.
This next image is for 11 am on Thursday. The line continues to shift eastward. A few heavy storms possible.
This last image is for 1 pm on Thursday. The line of storms has moved out of most of my forecast counties. Still some showers and storms scattered over Illinois into western Kentucky. We will have to see if a second line of storms forms behind the main line. This will depend on the speed of the cold front.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Level two risk for Wednesday night and Thursday morning (perhaps early Thursday afternoon, as well for our eastern counties). Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday night and Thursday. A few of the storms could be on the strong side with lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Storms may approach severe levels. A severe thunderstorm is one that produces 1″ hail, 58 mph winds, and/or a tornado. The severe weather risk with this event is small, but not zero.
The thunderstorm risk for Friday and Saturday will be zero.
Monitoring Sunday for some showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Low confidence.
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Updated temperatures.
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The main concern will be a few strong storms late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Then a chance for temperatures below freezing late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Some lightning possible Wednesday night and Thursday. A few strong storms are possible as the front sweeps eastward Thursday morning. Small severe weather risk. Gusty winds.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. Rainfall totals of 0.25″-0.50″. Locally higher totals in thunderstorms.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
