March 21, 2024: Monitoring rain chances Friday and again Sunday night into Tuesday.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Monday into Monday night. I will monitor Sunday night (late) and Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring early next week. Mainly Monday and Monday night.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? UNLIKELY. Locally heavy rain is possible Monday and Monday night, but the risk of flooding appears low.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. I am monitoring early next week. Sunday into Tuesday. Gusty winds are likely. Whether one of those 12-hour periods creates winds above 40 mph will need to be monitored. Gusts into the 30s appears likely Monday/Monday night. Perhaps Tuesday.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Thursday through Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A surface high pressure center will be just north of the Quad State area through the day Thursday, allowing for a light east to northeast wind. Deeper afternoon mixing will allow afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 20 to 30 percent range although mixing heights will only rise to about 2,500 ft. Overnight relative humidity recoveries will be in the 50 to 60 percent range tonight to around 70 to 80 percent Thursday night. Moisture will increase and the chances for light rain will go up on Friday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:56 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers over mainly our southern counties and southeastern counties (KY TN). Lower chances as you travel north.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:55 PM
Moonset: 5:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Some AM clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:53 PM
Moonset: 6:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of afternoon showers over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 4 PM.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates on rain probabilities and timing.
Moonrise: 6:51 PM
Moonset: 6:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:48 PM
Moonset: 7:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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Weather Highlights

1. A nice day ahead of us.
2. Low end shower chances Thursday PM/Friday (mainly south and east in TN/KY)
3. A larger system Sunday into Tuesday of next week. I will need to fine tune the timing. It may end up being Monday and Tuesday for the primary cold front.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone! I hope you are having a nice week. The weather isn’t too bad for early spring. A little cool, esp compared to recent weeks (which have been very warm).

We have a fairly quiet weather day ahead of us. It will be on the cool side with some gusty wind, from time to time. Nothing too extreme, but jacket weather.

Quiet weather will continue into tonight. Another chilly night ahead of us.

On Friday, a southern storm system will brush our region with clouds and some spotty showers. This is not going to be a rain out for the bulk of the region. But, some scattered showers will show up on radar Friday and Friday night.

The coverage will be higher over our southern and southeastern counties.

The trend has been to push this system farther south southeast. Thus, missing most of us.

There is a cold front to our north tomorrow, as well. A couple of light showers will be possible over our northern counties, but not much.

You can see that in these graphics.

This shows you the 12 hour rain probability.

7 AM and 7 PM Friday

7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday

Rain totals will be on the light side. Again, higher totals southeast vs west northwest.

That system will push off to the east Friday night and Saturday morning.

A few remaining clouds Saturday morning, but becoming mostly sunny through the day. Temperatures will be cool Friday night.

Sunday will be an in-between day.

Our next storm system will be approaching the region from the southwest. Sunday will be warmer and breezy.

A few showers will be possible Sunday night. But, rain chances rapidly increase Monday and Monday night. Peak chances now appear to be Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. That is when the cold front will push across the region.

Let’s look at those rain chances.

7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday Rain Probabilities

Monday night into early Tuesday morning rain probabilities

Tuesday rain probabilities

As far as severe thunderstorms go, it appears the risk is small.

Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of our region for severe weather Monday. Moisture return appears limited with this system. The higher dew points may remain to our south. CAPE values appear low.

It is possible this threat shifts southward, with time. I will keep an eye on it.

The SPC will update this each day until the event. Shifts are likely. For now, they just have the Missouri Bootheel in the threat zone. Again, the risk appears fairly limited since the higher dew points will likely remain to our south.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the FVS Model.