Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 19, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

 

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

  1. Go to today’s forecast
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  3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
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  1.   A nice day ahead of us.  Decent temperatures.
  2.   Rain shower chances arrive late tonight and especially on Wednesday.

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Today:  No
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Tomorrow:  No.

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Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through  Thursday night.

  1.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

Friday through Monday

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Some light will be possible this weekend.  The focus will likely be on Sunday.  Perhaps Monday.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  Unlikely.  I will monitor the Sunday/Monday system.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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March 19, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  An increase in high clouds throughout the day.  A decent weather day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 56°     SE MO  54° to 56°     South IL  54° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  54° to 56°     West KY 54° to 56°      NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:00 AM

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Tuesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds overnight.  A few light showers possible after midnight (mainly over SE MO and SW IL)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  36° to 40°      South IL  36° to 40°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40°     West KY  36° to 42°    NW TN  38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  30%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered late (mainly over SE MO and SW IL)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways late (mainly over SE MO and SW IL).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunset:   7:06 PM
Moonrise:   5:40 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  6:23 AM

 

 

March 20, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain showers likely.  Rain first arrives over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the morning hours.  Rain spreads east through the day.  Rain totals mostly in the 0.10″ to 0.25″ range.  Locally higher.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 58°     SE MO  54° to 58°     South IL  53° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°     West KY 54° to 56°      NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South to southwest wind 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  80%     Southeast MO  80%     IL   80%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  80%     Western KY  80%    NW TN  80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: At times, numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:59 AM

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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers ending west to east during the evening hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingHigh (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  38° to 42°     SE MO  38° to 42°     South IL  38° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40°     West KY  36° to 40°    NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:   West at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  30%      Southeast MO   30%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40%     Western KY  50%      NW TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  A band of rain ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   7:07 PM
Moonrise:   6:53 PM
The phase of the moon:   Full
Moonset:  7:02 AM

 

 

March 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Some morning clouds.  Clearing.  Becoming partly to mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 58°     SE MO  54° to 58°     South IL  52° to 54°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°     West KY 53° to 56°      NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northwest wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise:   6:57 AM

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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingHigh (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  36° to 38°     South IL  36° to 38°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36°     West KY  34° to 38°    NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   None
Sunset:   7:08 PM
Moonrise:   8:03 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  7:38 AM

 

Friday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.  Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.  Winds less than 15 mph.
Saturday:  Increasing clouds.  Warmer.  A light shower possible late Saturday night.  Highs in the middle 60’s.  Lows in the middle 40’s.  Winds less than 15 mph.
Sunday
:  Scattered showers possible during the day.  Rain likely Sunday night.  Mild.  Highs in the middle 60’s.  Lows in the middle 40’s.  Winds less than 15 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Graphic-cast

These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.  

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

 

Wind forecast

This will be updated around 8:15 AM

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Thursday through Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I will keep an eye on Sunday and Monday.  A few thunderstorms are possible.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1.   More calm weather!  Enjoy it.
  2.   Rain chances return late tonight and more likely on Wednesday.
  3.   Watching rain chances Sunday and Monday.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.  Many rivers are flooding.

 


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Forecast discussion.
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What can I say?  Another nice day on tap for the region.  I could get used to this.  What about you?

We had some many weeks of active weather that I was starting to wonder when it would end.

Undoubtedly, our active pattern will return.  For now, however, we will enjoy another nice day.  Temperatures will mostly be in the 50’s.  Not too bad for the middle of March.  A little cool.

A cold front will approach from the west tonight.  This front will deliver some shower activity after midnight.  The best chance of light showers tonight will be across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

The entire area will have a chance of rain by Wednesday into Wednesday early evening.  This is not a heavy rain event.

Rain totals should not be all that impressive.  This mostly appears to be a 0.10″ to 0.20″ rain event.  Some higher totals are possible.  Not much and nothing severe.

No flooding concerns with this event, either.  That is great news.

We will dry out Wednesday night and Thursday.  That dry weather will take us into Saturday evening.

A warming trend, as well.

Highs by Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be in the 60’s!  Cheers?  I thought so!

 

Friday highs (may need to bump these up a bit)

 

Saturday highs

 

Sunday highs

 

Monday highs

 

Another chance of rain arrives by Sunday and Monday.  I may need to add thunderstorms to the forecast.  For now, the severe weather threat appears minimal.  As always, monitor updates.

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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

 

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Timestamp upper left.

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Current conditions.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
.1

 

WeatherBrains Episode 685

 

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

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