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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible next Monday into Tuesday. I will monitor Sunday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring early next week.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring early next week.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. I am monitoring early next week.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday through Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Very dry conditions will continue today with relative humidity values of 15-25% in southeast Missouri, to 25-35% east of the Mississippi River. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the southwest tonight. It will become breezy Tuesday, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-40 mph. Afternoon humidity Tuesday will drop into the 25-35% range.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost and freeze possible. Temperatures could rise a little before sunrise.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:51 PM
Moonset: 3:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 35 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:53 PM
Moonset: 4:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain over southern Missouri and the Bootheel.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:55 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:56 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Dry today through Wednesday.
- Frost/freeze Monday night.
- Rain chances mid week continue to drop. I capped them around 20%. The trend has been drier and drier. Many areas may receive no measurable rainfall.
- A larger system Sunday into Tuesday of next week. I will need to fine tune the timing. It may end up being Monday and Tuesday for the primary cold front. Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
A bit of a complicated forecast over the coming seven days.
We are waking up to widespread 20s this morning. Some locations are still in the 30s. Most areas are below freezing.
First, we have cold air to deal with Monday night (again). A widespread freeze is likely. There is some agreement among the data that temperatures could rise a couple degrees before sunrise. Either way, it is going to be cold and a frost/freeze is likely.
The growing season has not officially begun over the northern half of the region. The NWS won’t issue frost and freeze advisories/warnings until the growing season begins.
Our southern counties, however, have started their growing season. Thus, there are frost and freeze products for tonight and Monday night.
Check this out. Almost to the Gulf of Mexico!
We aren’t finished with cold air, either. There will be more nights this week with temperatures in the 30s. And, I am watching another cold shot at the end of the month.
We warmed up way to fast this year, again.
I am monitoring light rain chances Wednesday night into Saturday. There is low confidence in this rain event. I capped rain chances around 20%.
Forecasted rain totals through Sunday will be light. Trace amounts. Even the WPC NOAA forecast shows little or no rain. With that said, I can’t rule out some light showers.
What I am more confident about is a larger storm system next Sunday night into Tuesday. The timing will need to be fine tuned.
Guidance indicates a deep area of low pressure moving well to our north. A cold front would push across our region.
This will bring rain and perhaps thunderstorms. It is still too early to know if severe weather is a concern, but I am monitoring trends.
You can see the system here on these charts.
The EC model
The EC model brings the front through Sunday night and Monday.
The GFS model brings the front through Monday and Tuesday.
Strong and gusty winds may accompany the system. Monitor updates.
I am hoping the system holds off until Monday and Tuesday, because I will be at a severe weather conference Saturday and Sunday!
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the FVS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Check back for this graphic
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Check back for this graphic
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Check back for this graphic
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Check back for this graphic
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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