Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 18, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

 

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

  1. Go to today’s forecast
  2. Go to the severe weather outlook
  3. Go to the weather forecast discussion
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  1.   Calm today into Tuesday.
  2.   Monitoring light rain chances on Wednesday.
  3.   Overall, fairly calm weather compared to recent months.

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Today:  No
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Tomorrow:  No.

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Confidence rating explained.

  • High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
  • Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
  • Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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Today through  Friday night.

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2.  Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

Saturday through Tuesday

  1. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  No.
  2. Is lightning in the forecast?  No.
  3. Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  No.  General river flooding will continue.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

 

March 18, 2019
Monday’s Forecast:  Some morning clouds over the SW part of our region.  Otherwise, mostly sunny with some spotty cumulus clouds.  Overall, it will be a nice day.  A little cool outside the sunshine.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 56°     SE MO  54° to 56°     South IL  54° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  54° to 56°     West KY  54° to 56°      NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northwest at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise:   7:02 AM

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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  33° to 36°     SE MO  30° to 34°      South IL  30° to 34°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36°     West KY  30° to 34°    NW TN  30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:   Light wind conditions
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:05 PM
Moonrise:   4:27 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  5:40 AM

 

 

March 19, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds are possible.  A decent weather day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 56°     SE MO  54° to 56°     South IL  54° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  54° to 56°     West KY 54° to 56°      NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise:   7:00 AM

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Tuesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds overnight.  A few light showers possible after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  35° to 40°      South IL  35° to 40°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40°     West KY  36° to 42°    NW TN  38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  30%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered late
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunset:   7:06 PM
Moonrise:   5:40 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  6:23 AM

 

 

March 20, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  54° to 58°     SE MO  54° to 58°     South IL  53° to 56°      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  53° to 56°     West KY 53° to 56°      NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL   60%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%    NW TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Perhaps numerous but lower confidence in that.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise:   6:59 AM

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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a few remaining rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  38° to 42°     SE MO  38° to 42°     South IL  38° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40°     West KY  36° to 40°    NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:   West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   40%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40%     Western KY  50%      NW TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset:   7:07 PM
Moonrise:   6:53 PM
The phase of the moon:   Full
Moonset:  7:02 AM

 

Thursday:   Mostly sunny.   Highs in the middle to upper 50’s to lower 60’s.  Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  Winds may gust to 20 mph.
Friday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the low to middle 60’s.  Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.  Winds less than 15 mph.
Saturday
:  Increasing clouds.  Highs in the middle 60’s.  Lows in the middle 40’s.  Winds less than 15 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Graphic-cast

These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.  

Missouri

 

 

Illinois

 

 

 

Kentucky

 

 

 

 

Tennessee

 

 

Wind forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

 

48-hour precipitation outlook.

 

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast.  This includes day one through seven.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
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Weather Prediction Center. Click here..

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1.   Calm weather.  Enjoy.
  2.   Monitoring rain chances late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening.

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.  Many rivers remain in flood stage.

 


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Forecast discussion.

I have to admit that I am loving this quiet weather.  It has been non-stop active weather for months.  One rain event after another.  Severe storms, tornadoes, snow, ice, and flooding.

Let’s all enjoy this temporary quiet.  It appears the weather will turn more active by this weekend into the following weeks.

For today, we will have a few morning clouds.  Those clouds will exit as we move through the morning hours.  Most of the clouds are confined to southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, parts of western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

You can see those clouds on the morning satellite view.

I am still waiting on the daylight to show the early morning visible satellite.  You can see the clouds on this nighttime visible satellite, as well.

 

 

The weather will remain dry into Tuesday evening.

A weak/fast moving system will deliver rain chances back to the region by late Tuesday night across parts of southeast Missouri but more likely on Wednesday/Wednesday night.  Rain totals will likely range from 0.10″ to 0.25″.

Rainfall totals should be fairly light.  Data is mixed as to whether we will see totals over 0.25″.

These two models may be overdone by a bit. Generally, most areas will likely end up with 0.05″ to 0.20″ of rain.

Here are the NAM model rainfall totals.

 

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

 

Here are the GFS rainfall totals.  Another model.

 

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Model Future-cast Radars.  What the models believe the radar may look like.

 

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Current conditions.

 

These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

 

 

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Long-range This video.

 

 

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The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these.  They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

 

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Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

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Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers  March 11th through the 18th 

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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March temperature and precipitation outlook

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April temperature and precipitation outlook

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

 

Temperature outlook

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Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
.1

 

WeatherBrains Episode 685

 

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA.  In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna.  Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL.  Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!

Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month.  Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast.  Welcome to the show, Joel!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
  • National Weather Podcast Month
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • National Weather round-up
  • and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

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