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For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Saturday Night – Cloudy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours possible. Isolated strong storms with high winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible into the night. Moving in from the south. Moving northward.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Pockets of heavy rain. Isolated high wind threat.
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A few morning showers and storms. Ending. Then, partly sunny and mild. A 30% chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms, if they do develop, could be strong. Moving in from the west. Moving east.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 66-72
Winds: Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% during the morning and 30% during the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected? A locally strong storm is possible with gusty winds and small hail.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a strong storm or two late in the day.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. A strong storm possible with gusty winds and small hail.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm can’t be ruled out. Gusty winds and small hail.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning
Monday – Partly with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 66-72
Winds: Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A stray thunderstorm possible. Lightning. Wet roadways.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: South winds 6-12 mph. Gusty after 4 am.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and warm. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from 72-76 degrees.
Winds: South winds 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
These numbers are off by one hour starting Sunday. I have submitted a ticket to fix them.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Unsettled 24 hours
- Warm temperatures
- Middle and upper 70s possible on Tuesday
- Cold snap later this week into next week
Showers and thunderstorms will be the main weather story for the next 12-18 hours. Locally heavy rain is possible tonight (Saturday night). We should start to see the precipitation shield moving out of the area on Sunday morning. We may still have some precipitation in the area Sunday morning. But, winding down.
A few storms could produce high winds on Saturday night.
Sunday afternoon will deliver mild temperatures with above normal temperatures. And, a few thunderstorms might bubble up. A few storms could be strong. Gusty winds, lightning, and small hail will be possible on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Storms will be moving in from the west.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday night into early Monday morning. Rain will be ending Monday morning.
Right now it appears the most of Monday into Tuesday will be dry. Perhaps a 20%-30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm Monday.
Warm temperatures are forecast for Tuesday. As a matter of fact, some data shows temperatures rising into the upper 70s. Let’s go with middle to upper 70s. And, maybe someone in the region will touch 80 degrees for the first time this year.
Gusty winds will develop on Tuesday, as well. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible. Perhaps higher gusts from time to time.
Cooler weather is anticipated by Wednesday or Thursday into the weekend. Upper 30s to lower 40s will be possible on Thursday night. Some of the long range data indicates chilly/cold weather around March 20th. Still several days to monitor the cold snap.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night through Monday morning. At this time the risk for severe weather appears low. Isolated high wind threat on Saturday night.
A couple of strong storms will be possible on Sunday, but perhaps south of our area.
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Updated wind and temperatures. Also rain probabilities.
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A few thunderstorms this weekend could produce lightning and gusty winds.
Locally heavy downpours will also be possible.
Some rain and storms possible. Umbrella weather.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
On and off rain chances this weekend. Rainfall amounts will vary considerably. Thunderstorms can cause locally heavier totals. Rainfall between now and Sunday night should range from 0.25″-1.00″ with pockets of greater totals likely. Heaviest totals might end up over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, northwest Tennessee, and far western Kentucky.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
